Tollhouse, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

149
FXUS66 KHNX 150008
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
408 PM PST Thu Nov 14 2024

.UPDATE...
Air Quality and Aviation Sections Updated.

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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Sierra
Nevada mountains and Yosemite Valley from 4 pm today through 10
PM Friday. Snow Levels are expected to lower to around 4000 feet
on Friday. 6 to 10 inches of snow is expected in the Sierra
Nevada above 4500 feet.

2. The San Joaquin Valley is also likely to see rain from this
system, beginning Friday morning and expected to exit early
Saturday morning. Current probabilities for the Valley floor are
50 to 75 percent for at least a quarter inch of rain on Friday.

3. After the system moves out of the area, below normal
temperatures are expected to persist through the weekend.
Freezing temperatures are possible in the rural areas of the
Valley for Saturday night through Sunday morning, with current
probabilities for minimum temperatures at or below 32 degrees
are 30 to 40 percent on Sunday.


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.DISCUSSION...

A trough of low pressure is expected to begin impacting our
area this afternoon, specifically for the Sierra Nevada
mountains and Yosemite Valley as snowfall is expected to start
this afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisory that has been issued
will go into effect at 4 pm this afternoon, with up to 6 inches
of snow expected or the mountains above 4500 feet. Up to 10
inches of snow is expected for the higher elevations of the
Sierra Nevada as well.

Here are the current probabilities for 8 inches of snow or more
in various mountain locations over the duration of the event:

Lodgepole: 65%
Grant Grove: 64%
Huntington Lake: 54%
Wishon Lake: 46%
Badger Pass Ski Area: 44%

The Winter Weather Advisory is set to end at 10 PM Friday, when
the heaviest snow is expected to finish, though a further light
dusting overnight is possible.

The San Joaquin Valley is also expected to receive some
rainfall while the storm system moves through. Current
probabilities show the Valley has a 50 to 75 percent chance for
a quarter of an inch of rain or more, with more likely chances
further south towards Bakersfield. The Sierra Nevada Foothills
are expected to see a larger amount of rainfall, as current
chances for a half inch of rain are 50 to 65 percent for various
locations in that region.

Increased winds are expected across the region has the cold
front moves through the area, especially for the Mojave Desert
Slopes, where wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected from 1 AM
Friday through 4 AM Saturday. A Wind Advisory has been issued
for this area due to these increased wind speeds. The highways
impacted are Highway 58, Highway 14 and Highway 178 during that
time, drive with caution, especially high profile vehicles.

Through is expected to exit our region by Saturday night, with a
ridge building in it`s place. This ridge is going to be short-
lived, but it may lead to the promotion of freezing temperatures
of the rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley, concentrated in
the area around Bakersfield. The lack of clouds will allow the
air on the ground to lose heat faster than it would when clouds
are overhead. That combined with the newly fallen rain will lead
to a faster cooldown.

Models show the ridge being quickly overtaken by another trough
on Monday that looks to bring a bit more precipitation to the
area, though this one is only going to swipe the northwestern
portion of our CWA, so amounts of rain and snow are expected to
be reduced. Current probabilities for the valley only show a 15
to 35 percent chance for 0.05 inches of rain that day.

Long range models show a ridge will move over Central California
by Tuesday and could stay there through next weekend as a large
trough holds it`s position in the eastern half of the CONUS.
This would lead to a gradual warm up for the region, though
chances of rising above 70 degrees in the valley are 15 to 30
percent.

&&


.AVIATION...
0Z Update

In the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, mountain obscuring
IFR conditions are expected to begin by 00Z Friday and lasts
through 18Z. In the Tehachapi Mountains, mountain obscuring IFR
conditions are expected to begin by 06Z Friday and lasts through
18Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Fri.
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin Valley
from 12Z to 18Z due to rain and fog/mist after the rain. VFR
conditions are expected after 18Z Friday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  11/14/2024 15:49
EXPIRES: 11/15/2024 23:59
On Friday November 15 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ338.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ323>331.
&&

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Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...........EW
DSS/PIO................................DCH
Updates................................JPK

weather.gov/hanford