Shaver Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

797
FXUS66 KHNX 212251
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
251 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will warm to around 5 to 10 degrees above
climatological normals today and Friday.

2. A strong storm system is forecast to impact Central
California Friday night through this weekend. Portions of the
San Joaquin Valley and the Sierra Nevada foothills may see
moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times with moderate to
heavy snowfall rates in the Sierra Nevada.

3. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the Sierra Nevada
above 6,500 feet valid from 4 PM Friday through 4 PM Tuesday.
Accumulations 10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet at
the highest elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles
per hour. The probability of receiving 18 inches of snow by 4
PM Saturday is 68% for Tuolumne Meadows and 74% for Tioga Pass.

4. The probability of receiving between one-half and one
(0.5-1.0) inch of rain by 4 PM Saturday is 90% in Merced
decreasing towards the south to 70% in Fresno, 50% in Visalia,
and 15% in Bakersfield.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level low pressure system is currently located in
the eastern Pacific, just off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest region. Cyclonic flow around this system is driving
moisture into northern California, Oregon, and Washington. Much
of this moisture is not reaching central California as of yet
due to a ridge of high pressure in place over the area,
extending from the Desert Southwest. The subsiding air
associated with the ridge is propagating dry conditions for
central California with above normal temperatures expected today
and tomorrow. Ensemble guidance from the National Blend of
Models indicates a 60 to 90 percent chance for afternoon high
temperatures to exceed 70 degrees each day in the San Joaquin
Valley before falling to less than 10 percent through the end of
next week.

As the weekend approaches, the ridge will begin to weaken,
allowing a stream of moisture to entrain over central
California, beginning over the northern San Joaquin Valley and
Sierra Nevada near Yosemite National Park, and tracking south
through the weekend. The approaching trough will have two major
waves associated with it as the center of the system remains
mostly stationary off the coast of Washington state.The first
wave will occur Friday evening through Monday morning.

The following are probabilities for 72 hour rainfall totals to
exceed one inch in the San Joaquin Valley ending at 4 AM PST
Monday, November 25th.

Bakersfield 15%
Coalinga    35%
Fresno      70%
Hanford     40%
Madera      80%
Merced      90%
Visalia     40%

The system will also result in heavy snowfall in the Sierra
Nevada, mainly above 6,500 feet, with the National Blend of
Models expressing a 100 percent chance for snowfall greater than
12 inches for Tioga Pass, Tuolumne Meadows, and White Wolf
Mountain. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning for the Sierra Nevada above 6,500 feet from
Yosemite National Park to the mountains north of Lake Isabella.
This warning is valid for the entire event from 4 PM PST Friday,
November 22nd until 4 PM PST Tuesday, November 26th.
Accumulated snowfall between 10 and 24 inches is possible with
high elevation snowfall up to 4 feet through the entire event.
Southwest wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles per hour.

The initial wave will also bring a chance for elevated winds in
the Kern County Desert, including the Mojave Desert Slopes.
There is a 50 to 80 percent chance for maximum wind gusts
Saturday overnight into Sunday morning to exceed 30 miles per
hour in this area.

The second wave of this system is expected to move through
central California Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening,
continuing the stream of moisture through the region. Snow
levels for the event early next week currently are forecast to
be around 7,000 - 7,500 feet at the start of the event Monday,
then falling to around 6,500 by Tuesday. Model guidance
currently does not have this 2nd system early next week being
quite as wet as the first; with rainfall amounts in the San
Joaquin Valley currently projected to be around one quarter to
one half of an inch. In the Sierra Nevada, another foot of snow
is conceivable above 7,000 feet. This additional snow can lead
to exacerbated snowload impacts due to it happening right on the
heels of the weekend storm system. In terms of wind, right as
the storm begins to encroach upon the region late Sunday/Early
Monday, a reinforcement of a strong gradient across the
mountains in Kern County may lead to strong winds through and
below pass level.

By Wednesday morning, some lingering moisture/cloud cover banked
up against the northern facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains
is forecast, leading to light rain and potential visibility
issues through Highway 58 and Tejon Pass/I-5. The system is
forecast to completely exit the area by late Wednesday. Ensemble
guidance has been trending drier in the latter portion of the
forecast (Wednesday and after). This is due to high pressure
aloft that will shunt moisture from reaching Central California.
However, the return of Tule Fog cannot be ruled out late next
week due to high pressure and wet soil that enhance fog
potential.

&&


.AVIATION...
There is a 2-5 percent probability for IFR conditions between
12Z and 15Z Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central California interier for the next 24
hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  11/20/2024 15:45
EXPIRES: 11/21/2024 23:59
On Thursday November 21 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced County, and
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM PST Tuesday for
CAZ323-326>331.
&&

$$

public...SM/ab
aviation....SM
IDSS.......DAS

weather.gov/hanford