Shaver Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

084
FXUS66 KHNX 221050
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
250 AM PST Sun Dec 22 2024

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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a 40 to 90 percent chance of an inch of snow above
7,000 feet through this afternoon. Tioga Pass and Tuolumne
Meadows have a 40 to 70 percent chance of 4 inches or more of
snow.

2. Tuesday has a 40 to near 100 percent or greater chance of a
quarter inch of rain or more for the San Joaquin Valley north of
Bakersfield. Bakersfield area has a 20 to 30 percent chance.

3. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance of 8 inches of snow or
more above 7,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada from Tuesday into
early Wednesday morning.


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.DISCUSSION...

An upper level wave pushes into the PacNW coast today with
mainly zonal flow for Interior Central California. A very weak
embedded shortwave in the flow will bring some light
precipitation north of Fresno and along the West Side Hills.
Expect snowfall for the higher elevations of Yosemite National
Park. In the San Joaquin Valley another mild day is in store
for The region. On Saturday daily maximum temperatures were in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Today the probability of exceeding 65
degrees in the San Joaquin Valley is 15 to 65 percent with the
highest probability at Bakersfield and Coalinga at 50 to 65
percent chance.

Monday an induced ridge pops up in front of the Christmas Eve
event for the region. This brings another mild day to the San
Joaquin Valley. The probability of exceeding 65 degrees
increases to 55 to 90 percent for most valley locations.
Coalinga has a 98 percent chance. The threat of fog is fairly
low with ample cloud cover in the morning.

Tuesday into Wednesday (Christmas Day) a strong shortwave trough
moves through the Central California. This system brings a good
probability of a quarter inch or more of rainfall to most of the
San Joaquin Valley and 8 inches or more of snowfall to the
higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. EC and GFS ensemble run
to run change is very minimal increasing confidence in the
pattern. Just peaking at NBM point probabilities for Fresno the
25th to 75th percentile range is from 0.25 to 0.50 inches of
rainfall on Tuesday. It is fairly likely up in the Sierra Nevada
that a winter weather advisory will be needed for snowfall
Tuesday night based on the trends. The threat of thunder comes
with this system with 10 percent probability of occurrence. The
main threat area is Visalia to Hanford line and north with the
Fresno area with a 12 percent chance. A boom or two might be
possible, however main threat will be increased rain intensity
with convective cells. The threat for Mojave Slope wind has
reduce some down to a 40 to 60 percent chance of exceeding 50
mph.

Another fast moving shortwave trough zips through on Thursday in
the northwest flow. Probability of tenth of an inch of rain is
20 to 50 percent north of Hanford-Visalia and lower to the south
to near zero for Bakersfield. Higher elevations for the Sierra
Nevada have a 20 to 50 percent probability of exceeding 3 inches
of snow.

Friday through next Sunday features northwest flow shifting to
southwest flow for the region. Very weak shortwaves in the upper
flow bring a threat for light precipitation with the three day
total of a tenth of an inch falls into the 30 to 60 percent
range in probability north of Hanford/Visalia.

&&


.AVIATION...

12Z Sunday Update: San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills:
Mainly MVFR in mist and haze with local IFR possible until 19Z
Sunday. AFT 19Z VFR with probability of MVFR at 30 to 40
percent, mainly for VSBY, for the valley. AFT 08Z the
probability of IFR increases to 30 to 40 percent for the valley
with VSBY reduction, mainly VFR cloud decks.

In the High Sierra/Foothills, MVFR with occasional IFR will
continue through 06Z then gradual return to VFR.

Kern County Desert and Tehachapi Mountains remains VFR for the
24 hour period.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/21/2024 13:49
EXPIRES: 12/22/2024 23:59
On Sunday December 22 2024,  Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Kern County.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning
For All in Kern County. No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno,
Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings
County, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National
Park and Forest.

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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Operations...Proton
DSS/PIO......JPK

weather.gov/hanford