Searles Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

320
FXUS65 KVEF 050912
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
212 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona this afternoon
with lesser chances in southeastern California. Gusty outflow winds,
frequent lightning, and moderate-to-heavy rain will be threats with
any storms that develop. Things will begin to dry out and heat up as
we head into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today.

Elongated troughing stretching from the eastern Pacific through
southern California into southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will
allow for vorticity advection into the region today. This advection
combined with daytime heating and precipitable water values over 200%
of normal will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms
across much of the area this afternoon. Convection will favor areas
of higher terrain for development beginning later this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will move off the higher terrain, tending
to move from west to east with the upper-level flow. Southern Nevada
and northwest Arizona will have the best chances at seeing scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as this is where CAPE
values around 500 to 1,000 J/kg overlap with 0.75 to 1.0 inches of
precipitable water. Convection in San Bernardino and Inyo counties
will be more isolated in nature. Anomalous moisture across the area
will allow for moderate-to-heavy rain capable of resulting in
isolated flash flooding will be possible with stronger storms.
Frequent and dangerous lightning and 30 to 40 mph outflow wind gusts
will be possible with any storms that develop; 50 mph outflow wind
gusts will be possible with stronger storms. With lower CAPE values
than we had on Tuesday and lack of sufficient wind shear, 1 inch
hail is not expected to be a threat today. However, more robust
convection may produce graupel or small hail (pea, nickel, or dime
sized). Convection will begin to die down across the region after
sunset with the exception of northern Lincoln County where showers
and thunderstorms may linger later into the evening.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday through early next week, a return to more typical early June
hot and dry conditions is on tap for southern Nevada, southeastern
California and northwestern Arizona. Ensemble guidance and cluster
analyses remain in good agreement regarding a strengthening ridge
over the region, which will facilitate a decrease in moisture and
gradually warming temperatures, with a return to above normal
temperatures on Friday, warming to well above normal Sunday through
at least Tuesday. Fairly widespread highs in the 90s and lower 100s
are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with Monday and Tuesday looking
to be the hottest days of the forecast. Along with the warming
temperatures will be increasing HeatRisk, with "Major" HeatRisk
returning to Death Valley and the Lower Colorado River Valley on
Saturday, gradually expanding across other lower elevations through
early next week, with "Extreme" HeatRisk possible for the lowest
Valleys Monday and Tuesday. Thereafter, ensemble members begin to
diverge, with some indications that a weak trough may try to
undercut the ridge heading into midweek, but with little in the way
of moisture, this trough would have little impact other than
tempering the hot temperatures by a couple of degrees, and producing
some breezy conditions. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Clearing
skies expected overnight but a few mid level clouds may hang around
above 10kft AGL. Light winds expected as well. Thunderstorm chances
will return Thursday with storm development over the mountain terrain
after 18z spreading into the Las Vegas Valley through the afternoon
hours.  These storms will bring a period of gusty and erratic winds,
lightning, and brief heavy rain to the valley, with about a 30%
chance of a storm forming over the terminals. Storms will die off
after sunset with improving conditions overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Generally light winds
with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies expected through the
overnight hours. Storm chances return tomorrow, mainly across
southern Nevada, though an isolated storm or two may form across the
Western Mojave Desert near KDAG or along the Colorado River Valley.
Brief heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main threats.
Otherwise, light southerly winds are expected with speeds of 8 to 12
knots.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Outler

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