Scott Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

Weather Forecast Discussion

762
FXUS66 KMFR 140326
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
826 PM PDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Updated MARINE and AVIATION sections

.DISCUSSION.../Issued 231 PM PDT Sun Apr 13 2025/

Satellite image shows clear skies over the entire
forecast area, and will remain clear through Monday. Afternoon
temperatures will be warmer compared to yesterday.

Surface analysis shows the thermal trough along the south oregon
coast and it will remain there through tonight. At the same time,
the pressure gradient will tighten up some along the Cascades
resulting in gusty breezes along the Cascades, ans ridges along the
eastern flank of the Umpqua Divide. Meanwhile winds will be lighter
in the interior westside valleys and valleys east ofthe Cascades.

Monday will be the warmest day of the forecast period. The thermal
trough will shift inland over the interior westside valleys which
typically will bring warmer temperatures. Afternoon temperatures for
the interior westside valleys will be in the lower to mid 80s. This
is something we typically see in late May and early June. So it will
feel summer like.

Tuesday, the thermal trough will shift east resulting in slight
cooling west of the Cascades. At the same time we`ll be sandwiched
in between a weak approaching upper trough from the west and a cut
off upper low off the California coast. Mid level moisture will move
up from the south ahead of the upper low and could sneak into
portions of our northern California counties (Siskiyou and Modoc)
mid to late Tuesday afternoon and evening along with marginal
instability. An isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of the
question in portions of southern Siskiyou county and from about
Mount Shasta east. Any storms that develop will tend to move east to
northeast, therefore areas east of Mount Shasta could also see an
isolated storm or two.

Any storms from Tuesday afternoon will end early Tuesday evening
with dry weather expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, this time we`ll be in between the cutoff upper low from
the south and an approaching and stronger upper trough from the
north. The upper trough from the north could put a squeeze play on
the incoming moisture from the south from the cutoff upper low. This
will basically divert the build of the moisture and instability
south and east of our forecast area. With that said, a few locations
in southern Siskiyou and Modoc County could still see an isolated
storm or two Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

The aforementioned stronger upper trough will drop south into our
area Wednesday night into Thursday. The trajectory of the upper
trough is one that does not typically result in precipitation, but
will bring a cooler and drier air mass with moderate to occasionally
strong winds east of the Cascades Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. The operational GFS shows some precipitation east of the
Cascades, and the ECMWF keeps precipitation east of out forecast
area. Looking at the individual ensemble members, the majority of
them (GFS and ECMWF) show a dry solution which makes sense given the
trajectory of the upper low (which is basically an inside slider).

For now we`ll keep a slight chance of precipitation for eastern Lake
County and the Warners in Modoc County, but odds are when push comes
to shove, we`ll end up dry.

Friday into next weekend will be dry with afternoon temperatures
warming up some, and will be above seasonal norms. -Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...14/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period as high pressure remains in control and very dry air
persists in the boundary layer.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Sunday, April 12th...The thermal trough
will shift inland and result in some weaker northerly winds on
Monday. Seas still remain steep and hazardous to smaller crafts
through Monday.

Data suggests the thermal trough will rebuild again off the Oregon
coast Tuesday afternoon or evening with some stronger northerly
winds. At the very least seas will be hazardous to smaller crafts,
although there is the potential for a brief period of gale force
winds or hazardous seas on Tuesday evening.

-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

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