Redondo Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS66 KLOX 121828
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1128 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...12/806 AM.

Minimal day-to-day changes in the below-normal temperatures
through Saturday with a deep marine layer. Northwest winds today
will turn onshore by Friday. High temperature will drop to 10 to
15 degrees below normal Sunday through the middle of next week as
a low pressure system moves into the area. There is a chance for
light rain Sunday into Monday, with widespread gusty west winds to
follow Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...12/806 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is in good shape this morning. Made some minor
updates to the clouds this morning based on the latest mood of the
marine layer. After several days of significant weather (with
heat or winds or fire weather issues), we are looking to finally
settle into a fairly benign pattern for the rest of the week. The
current Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings are on track to
expire this morning with no plan on changing or extending.

***From Previous Discussion***

Marine layer stratus is solid along the Central Coast this morning
but getting off to a slow start in the south with northerly flow
likely interfering with the low cloud development there. Overall
minimal changes to the forecast today or the next several. Still
dealing with some gusty northerly winds today across the Santa
Ynez Range and I5 corridor. Winds there have mostly been below
advisory levels but Sandberg did record a gust to 63 mph just
before midnight and the western Santa Ynez range has been just
under 45 mph most of the night.

For today through Saturday really not much change. Temperatures
have now stabilized at 5-10 degrees below normal and though there
may be a very very slight warming trend inland Friday
temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend and
likely well into next week. The northerly flow has peaked and
winds are expected to subside today with just typical diurnal
breezes the next few days and mostly below 20 mph. Morning status
should be a little more comprehensive Friday morning with
weakening northerly flow and could spread all the way up to Santa
Barbara and into some of the valleys. Increasing onshore
gradients may keep some of those clouds lingering near the coast
through afternoon Friday and Saturday, but otherwise clear skies
expected.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...12/331 AM.

Ensemble solutions and deterministic models continue to show a
deepening low pressure system dropping south along the West Coast
and into California Sunday into Monday. Both the GFS and EC have
much lower heights than the ensemble means by almost 10 dam so
the system may not be quite as strong as the deterministic
solutions currently show, but either way temperatures will drop
several more degrees early next week as the system moves into the
area. With significant cooling aloft as well the marine layer
should deepen up quite a bit and there could be some drizzle or
light showers Sunday night into Monday west and south of the
coastal mountain ranges.

A secondary upper will follow the first one later Wednesday into
Thursday and most of the solutions show this one dropping farther
south than the first. The GFS actually has more moisture and a
consolidated frontal passage Thursday through southern California,
though based on the ensembles this appears to be more of an
outlier. In any case, the cool weather pattern will continue
through at least Thursday before some warming comes back for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1827Z.

Around 1640Z, the marine layer depth was around 2600 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 5200 feet with a
temperature around 20 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY. There is a 30%
chance for VFR conditions thru the period at KPRB. Minimum flight
cat at KBUR and KVNY may be off by one cat once cigs arrive.
Arrival time of cigs may be off by +/- 3 hours from current fcst.

Low confidence in TAFs for coastal sites north of Pt Conception.
There is a 40% chance for KSBP to become LIFR and a 20% to become
VLIFR between 08Z and 15Z. There is a 20% chance KSBP remains VFR
thru the period. There is only a 10% chance KSMX remains LIFR or
higher thru the period. Arrival and dissipation of cigs may be off
by +/- 4 hrs from current fcst.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for remaining coastal sites. Minimum
flight cat may be off by one cat at any point once cigs arrive.
Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours from current fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance that cigs
arrive between 02Z and 05Z. There is a 20% chance for OVC007-009
between 05Z and 14Z. There is a 20% chance that cigs don`t clear
until 20Z. Any east wind component should be less than 7 knots.
KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance cigs arrive
between 08Z and 11Z. There is a 20% chance cigs remain 007-009
thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...12/855 AM.

For the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas
Island, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Gales have
subsided in most of the waters, with low end Gales still occuring
in the furthest southern zone from the Channel Islands south to
San Nicolas Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will be in effect
for this zone thru Friday morning once the Gale Warning expires
late this morning. In the other two zones from the Channel Island
north to Pt Piedras Blancas, SCA winds are expected until Friday
morning as well. High confidence in winds remaining below SCA
level from late Friday morning thru Sat night. Then, high
confidence in SCA level winds picking back up as early at Sat to
Sun overnight (20-30% chance this early) and persisting thru at
least late Mon. There is a 30-40% chance of Gales in the southern
zone from late Sun thru at least late Mon. Steep and choppy seas
expected thru at least Friday.

For the nearshore waters off the Central Coast, moderate
confidence in the forecast. SCA level winds are expected thru late
tonight. High confidence in winds remaining below SCA level for
most of the weekend. There is then a 30-50% chance of SCA level
winds Sun afternoon thru at least Mon, with highest confidence in
the afternoon thru late evening hours Mon.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, moderate confidence in the
forecast. Winds are will be strongest in the western and southern
portions of the channel thru tonight. Then, high confidence in
winds remaining below SCA level thru most of the weekend, with a
50-70% chance of winds ramping up to SCA level Sun afternoon and
lasting thru at least Mon night, with highest confidence Mon
afternoon thru late evening, with a 30-40% chance of Gales
occuring during this period, especially for the western and
southern portions.

For the nearshore waters off the OC/LA coasts, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA level thru Sun. Then, moderate
confidence in SCA level winds occuring Mon in the afternoon thru
evening hours, with a 10-20% chance of Gales from the waters off
Malibu thru the San Pedro Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox