Permanente, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS65 KVEF 102136
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
235 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dangerous heat peaks in intensity today as HeatRisk
rises to the major category across parts of the Mojave Desert.
Although temperatures will remain above normal through the week,
slight cooling is expected over the next couple of days. Today will
also be the last day of isolated thunderstorms over central Nevada
as a drier southwest flow develops over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday.

The ridge that brought the extreme heat to the region over the past
couple of days will weaken as a weak trough over the eastern Pacific
moves into the west coast. Residual moisture of around 150-200
percent is still hanging around central Nevada and with the added
instability we have seen a few isolated thunderstorms develop over
portions of Lincoln County. The latest HRRR continues to indicate
thunderstorm chances also extending into Esmeralda and central Nye
counties into this evening. Some storms could produce heavy rain,
but the greatest threat will be gusty outflow winds.

On Wednesday, a weak trough off the Pacific coast will usher in a
drier southwest flow which is expected to lower the anonymously high
PWs back to near normal which will pretty much put an end to the
daily isolated thunderstorms. With the trough, we can expected to
see heights falling just a bit, but with increased mixing we are
only expecting to see temperatures drop about 2-4 degrees. The
HeatRisk will drop from Major for many locations today down to
Moderate for most valley areas Wednesday. We will also see
increasing southwest winds with afternoon breezes around 25 to 35
mph. Although the winds are expected to remain below any advisory
levels, it will bring increasing fire weather concern to the region.
Luckily, most of the fuels are not in the critical category and fire
headlines are also not expected.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Models are in good agreement that our area will be in between ridging
centered over AZ/NM/MX and some flavor of troughing along the
West Coast/Pacific NW, resulting in prolonged southwest flow aloft
during this period. This will lead to dry weather, temperatures
several degrees above normal for mid June, and breezy afternoons.
At this time, winds look likely to remain below advisory criteria,
and HeatRisk is primarily Moderate with only splotches of Major
showing up Sunday and Monday. With all this said, the primary
concern through the period will likely be heat-related impacts to
vulnerable populations, such as those without air conditioning or
who have to remain outside for long periods.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...South to southwest winds are expected to develop around
00z this afternoon with occasional gusts to around 20 knots and then
continue through much of the overnight period. The gustiness is
expected to subside overnight but will return by mid-morning
tomorrow. Isolated convection is still possible over the southern
Great Basin into this evening and the chance of an outflow reaching
the valley this afternoon is minimal. VFR conditions are expected
throughout the TAF period, and temperatures are expected to drop
below 100 degrees around 04z this evening. High temperatures are
expected to exceed 100 degrees Wednesday between 19z-04z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described above for
Harry Reid. Isolated areas of convection across the southern Great
Basin and over the northern White Mountains will diminish this
evening with dry conditions expected areawide Wednesday. CIGs around
8kft AGL and reduced visibilities due to heavy rain will be possible
near areas of convection. South to southwest winds will increase
over all TAF sites Wednesday with gusts 25-30 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           TUE, JUN 10   WED, JUN 11
              Record(Yr)    Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     109(2022)*    109(2022)*
Bishop        103(2022)*    104(2022)
Needles       121(1910)     122(1918)
Daggett       110(1994)*    110(2022)
Kingman       109(1921)     107(1918)
Desert Rock   104(2022)*    105(2022)
Death Valley  125(2013)     122(2022)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Gorelow
CLIMATE...Soulat

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