Perez, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

217
FXUS66 KMFR 091140
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
440 AM PDT Wed Apr 9 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...What`s left of the disturbance that brought the
rain to coastal areas yesterday and last evening is heading into
southern Canada/northern Idaho early this morning. There is still
some low-level, moist onshore flow near the coast from Cape Blanco
to Newport and into portions of the Umpqua Basin/Willamette
Valley this morning resulting in cloud-cover and perhaps a little
light rain/sprinkles. But, heights will rise today and things will
dry out in those locations. Aside from some higher clouds, most
other areas should have sunny and milder conditions this
afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the low 70s for the west
side valleys and in the 60s to around 70s over the east side. If
you`re headed into the mountains, it will be cooler with mid 40s
up at Crater Lake, Mt Ashland and the Mt Shasta ski area. Expect
fairly typical readings over at the coast in the upper 50s/low
60s.

The axis of an upper level ridge will push east of the Cascades
tonight. This will keep dry weather area wide through early
Thursday morning. The next Pacific frontal system will approach
the coast on Thursday. There`s a 20-40% chance of rain by 11 am at
the immediate coast, but PoPs increase to 80-90% there during
the afternoon. Rain chances increase (20-50%) across most of the
west side Thursday afternoon as well, but like yesterday`s front,
most of the upper support will stay to the north. As such, as the
front moves onshore, it will likely fall apart. Forecast rain
amounts on the coast and over to the Umpqua NF are shown to be in
the 0.20-0.50 of an inch range. Rain amounts drop off to 0.10 of
an inch or less south and east of those locations. Rain is
unlikely here in the Rogue Valley, but there is a slight chance
(~20%) during the late afternoon/evening. This does make the
temperature forecast a bit tricky, since there will likely be good
mixing (breezy conditions) in advance of the front, but also an
increase in cloud cover. We think temps will reach the low 70s
here in Medford with upper 60s to low 70s again over the east
side. Breezy conditions develop with gusts of 20-25 mph here in
the Rogue Valley in the afternoon. SW wind gusts peak around
30-35 mph over the east side.

Post-frontal showers diminish in coverage Thursday night into
Friday morning. But, the upper trough offshore will swing across
the PacNW Friday afternoon. Overall, it will be cooler by about
5-10F compared to Thursday. This will keep a 20-40% of showers
near the Cascades/Siskiyous and over east side areas. Instability
parameters are weak, but there is a slight chance (~15%) of
thunder for portions of Lake County in the late afternoon/evening.
The trough axis will shift east of the Cascades Friday night and
showers chance should diminish in all but the far northern
mountains. Areas that clear out Friday night could have frost.
This is most likely in some of the typically colder SW Oregon
valleys (Illinois/Scott). Saturday will be a cool day with high
temperatures near to slightly below normal. Expect highs largely
in the 50s to low 60s.

High pressure will build in Saturday night resulting in the
coldest night of the stretch. Many west side areas will have low
temperatures that support frost formation and some of the colder
valleys will get down close to or even a bit below freezing. We`ll
be monitoring this for potential headlines, though the best
chance for low temperatures in the upper 20s (~50% chance) will
be in the Shasta/Scott Valleys. East side locations will have lows
in the upper teens and 20s.

After the cold start Sunday morning (bring/wear a coat if you`re
headed out early), it will warm up nicely Sunday afternoon --
just a great day to be outside with highs mostly in the 60s and
70s. The upper ridge will persist over the area into early next
week. So, expect dry, warmer weather to continue. The next chance
of showers won`t be until mid next week, and even then, rain
chances at this time appear minimal (20% or less). -Spilde

&&

.AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs...Westerly flow aloft is bringing light
showers and MVFR ceilings to some coastal areas. These showers will
decrease through the morning, and VFR levels are forecast across the
area through the day. Onshore flow may help to build a marine
stratus layer near the end of the TAF period, with MVFR levels at
North Bend reflecting possible timing. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM Wednesday, April 9th...Below advisory seas
continue today, with moderate west swell and unimpactful southerly
winds forecast for area waters.

The next activity will be a front approaching from the west early
Thursday morning. The front will bring chances of marine showers and
gusty southerly winds. These winds are expected to build steep seas
in all waters through Wednesday night. A coastal jet could bring
gusts of 35-40 kts north of Cape Blanco and within 30 nm from shore
in the early afternoon hours, but widespread gale conditions are not
forecast.

Below advisory conditions return early Friday morning. A thermal
trough may start to develop in the afternoon, with further
development on Saturday and Sunday. Additional periods of steep seas
look possible in this period, depending on the thermal trough`s
behavior. -TAD


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

MAS/TAD/MAP