Pacific Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

326
FXUS66 KSGX 150420
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
920 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures this weekend with heat peaking tomorrow.
A slow cooling is expected through most of the week with highs
generally 5 degrees above average through Wednesday and closer to
normal heading into the end of the week. Night and morning low
clouds and fog can be expected each day along the coast and will
reach into portions of the valleys at times. Slight increase in
westerly winds expected over the mountains and into the deserts
early in the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Update: The ECMWF still has temperatures being the warmest for
tomorrow, and a consensus of the high res models (HREF) has
locations within the Coachella Valley at possibly reaching 115F
degrees for the max temp. There could also be some locations within
the Imperial Valley maxing out at 100+. Low clouds will begin to
fill back in and surge inland throughout the evening, with low
enough bases that there will likely be some restrictions to
visibilities due to mist, as well as areas of patchy fog, especially
for some of the inland valleys in the more wind-sheltered areas. The
marine layer will be quite thin compared to recent days and will
likely clear out for most locations by 10 AM tomorrow morning. It
will remain on the thinner side over the next couple of days.

Ensembles have begin to differ more in recent model runs with
respect to max temperatures over the course of the next week, with
the GFES showing temperatures remaining on the warmer side, and the
ECS revealing that there will be a gradual cooldown. This will
depend on the subtropical ridge to the south and where it
establishes itself over the course of the next few days. Otherwise,
there has been move agreement with ensembles for the following
weekend, showing that there will be a longwave trough transitioning
over the region, which will allow for temperatures to begin to cool
back off again.

(Previous discussion submitted at 133 PM):

Visible satellite at 1 PM was showing patchy low clouds lingering
along the coast. Low clouds and fog will move back inland this
evening, but are not expected to make it past the western valleys
tonight. Low clouds are expected to remain persistent each night
and morning for the coast into early next week, with high
resolution model guidance indicating better chances of widespread
clearing in the afternoons (yes, even for the beaches) tomorrow
and Monday. The marine layer is expected to deepen for the middle
to end of next week as a more amplified trough of low pressure
approaches the West Coast.

Building high pressure from the south will bring an increase in high
temperatures, which will peak on Sunday. On Sunday, high
temperatures will be around 5 degrees above average near the coast
and 10 degrees above average for inland locations. The High Desert
is likely (80-100% chance) to see high temperatures of 100 degrees
or more by Sunday, while the lower deserts have similar chances of
110 degrees or more. HeatRisk in the inland valleys, mountain
foothills, and deserts will be moderate, with locally high HeatRisk
in the low deserts on Sunday. NBM chance for the low desert to
exceed 115 degrees on Sunday is 15 percent or less. West of the
mountains, there is a 50 to 80 percent chance parts of the Inland
Empire will exceed 100 degrees and up to a 20 percent chance parts
of eastern San Diego County valleys will exceed 100 degrees Sunday.
Portions of inland Orange County (east of Interstate 5) have a 30 to
50 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 90 degrees.

A low pressure system moving inland through California early in the
week will strengthen onshore flow for Monday and Tuesday. This will
result in a slight increase in westerly winds over the mountains and
into the deserts. The weak low will also have minor impacts on
lowering high temperatures. Temperatures Monday are expected to be a
degree or two cooler than Sunday. Further cooling is expected into
Tuesday, with high temperatures around 5 degrees above average.
Wednesday may see a few degrees of warming away from the coast as
the ridge rebounds in the wake of the passing trough. Any increase
in temperatures will be short lived as another upper level trough
begins to deepen and move west across the Pacific Northwest for
the end of the week. While there are some differences in the
timing of the progression of this trough, the general consensus is
for cooling the remainder of the week, with these differences
determining just how much cooling will occur.

&&

.AVIATION...
150330Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have already developed along
the San Diego coast, with bases 800-1200ft MSL. Inland spread up to
15 miles is expected through 14z, with bases varying between 600-
1100ft MSL. VIS may fall to 1/2-3SM for coastal terrain and inland
valleys, especially around 10-14z. Otherwise, VIS generally above
5SM. Low clouds retreat towards the coast around 14-16z, with full
clearing expected by 17-18z. High clouds generally above 25000ft
will prevail through the afternoon. Low clouds develop again Sunday
night generally after 06z, with slightly lower bases than tonight.

.Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN high clouds and mostly unrestricted VIS
prevails through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A 3 foot southerly (190 degrees) swell at 19 seconds has lead to
elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet, primarily for Orange County and
northern San Diego County beaches. A Beach Hazard Statement is in
effect through late Sunday evening. The period gradually shortens to
17 seconds by Sunday, and the overall swell and surf heights will
wane late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewey
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber