Morongo Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

321
FXUS65 KVEF 091000
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
200 AM PST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather expected through the weekend with
gradually warming temperatures into the start of the work week. An
active fall weather pattern will take shape through the week as
multiple systems push through the Desert Southwest, which will
result in occasional breezy and cooler conditions as well as an
increased chance of precipitation.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday.

Shortwave ridging will build over the Desert Southwest, which will
allow temperatures to gradually warm through the weekend. Forecast
temperatures this afternoon are 2-4 degrees warmer than Friday and
are expected to be an additional 2-4 degrees warmer on Sunday, which
will bring the region within a couple degrees of seasonal averages
for early-mid November. This warming trend coupled with mostly clear
skies and light winds will make for an optimal weekend for outdoor
recreation. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there could be
increased high-level smoke across southwestern portions of our
forecast area from wildfires in southern California (specifically,
the Happy Fire, which is currently at 10,571 acres), with Inyo and
San Bernardino counties most likely to notice any smoke.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

After the warm, calm, and quiet weekend, the next in a series of
troughs is still progged to impact the region Monday and Tuesday.
Ensembles remain in good agreement regarding this next system, which
will translate eastward across the region as a broad open wave,
bringing gusty southwesterly winds to southern Nevada, southeastern
California, and northwestern Arizona beginning Monday morning. Given
this trough looks to remain fairly broad and low-amplitude, winds
are not anticipated to be quite as strong as previous wind events,
though there is still a medium to high potential (40-80%) for wind
gusts to exceed 40 mph, mainly across the higher terrain on Monday
afternoon. The strongest winds are forecast over the Sierra, where a
downsloping component could result in local enhancements to wind
speeds, with Advisory conditions possible. Unfortunately,
precipitation chances associated with this upcoming system will be
paltry for all but the eastern Sierra where the highest PoPs are
focused (15-30%) in the Monday late afternoon/Monday night time
frame. Most precipitation, if it occurs, would fall as snow, though
it is important to note that QPF remains very light, thus
accumulations would also be light. The southwesterly component to
the winds Monday will allow temperatures to trend up slightly,
though a subtle cooldown is forecast for Tuesday as the trough
departs and winds shift to the northwest and trend southeastward
through Tuesday afternoon.

On the heels of the departing system, quasi-zonal flow is progged to
develop through midweek, with ensembles still hinting at the next
trough to impact the region late next week into next weekend. While
there`s agreement between ensemble clusters that this potential
trough will develop a positive tilt as it moves inland over the West
Coast, there remain fairly substantial differences regarding its
amplitude and speed. So, the main takeaway for now is that the
progressive, active pattern will continue for the foreseeable
future.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds following typical diurnal
directional patterns are expected today into Sunday. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period with clear skies
through the afternoon, followed by SCT high clouds with bases AOA
20kft AGL this evening through Sunday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Except for the lower Colorado River Valley, all
regional TAF sites will see winds of less than 10kts today into
Sunday. In the river valley, northerly breezes, occasionally
gusting to 15kts, will continue through the afternoon before
decreasing this evening and overnight. VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period with clear skies through the afternoon,
followed by SCT high clouds with bases AOA 20kft AGL,
overspreading the region northwest to southeast this evening
through Sunday morning.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz

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