Morongo Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS65 KVEF 212135
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
135 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Generally dry and warming conditions into Saturday.
Low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast will sag south,
directing moisture into the Sierra Friday night into Saturday.
This will result in high elevation snow in the Sierra. Winds will
also increase across the Mojave Desert Saturday afternoon/evening.
Another system will move across the region Sunday through
Tuesday, bringing more widespread rain and mountain snow chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night.

Dry and quiescent conditions across the region today as we remain
sandwiched between a ridge of high pressure to the east and a
broad trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast.
These conditions will remain the same through Friday.

By Friday night and Saturday, the upper level trough will have
sagged far enough south to direct moisture across the Sierra,
resulting in high elevation snowfall. A Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued above 7000 feet for the Sierra with 2-8 inches of
snow expected between 7000 and 8500 feet and higher amounts near
the crest. Additionally, a weak wave ejecting from this trough will
also increase southwest winds across the Mojave Desert Saturday
afternoon and evening, with peak gusts generally between 30-40
mph. Winds were overall increased compared to the previous
forecast. Isolated areas of blowing dust will be possible as a
result, mainly across western San Bernardino County.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

The trough will then weaken and most of the remaining energy and
moisture associated with it will gradually transition east across
the region Sunday through at least Tuesday. The main concern with
this time frame will be somewhat more widespread precipitation
chances and higher snowfall totals in the mountains (mainly the
Sierra). That said, cluster analysis shows diverging solutions
during this time frame. The primary question is how quickly this
transition will happen and how much if any troughing remains over
the far eastern Pacific. Around 20% of the ensemble members keep
energy offshore through Tuesday night/Wednesday, while around 10%
keep it all the way through Wednesday night/Thursday. The
implications of this lingering energy would be to extend the
period of precipitation chances out further into next week while
also keeping temperatures several degrees warmer. In nearly all
cases, temperatures will gradually cool through next week, after
the trough makes its way through, leaving drying northwest flow
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain under 10 knots and
will follow typical diurnal directional trends through the evening
hours. Winds will become light and variable overnight before
settling in from the east on Friday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...With the exception of the Colorado River Valley TAF
sites, winds at the remaining TAF sites will remain under 10 knots
and will follow typical diurnal directional trends with periods of
more light and variable winds as they transition. Winds at the
Colorado River Valley TAF sites will favor a northerly direction
through the afternoon, with KEED falling to a more westerly
direction this evening while KIFP maintains a more northerly
direction through the evening hours. Winds at KIFP and KEED will
become light and variable during the overnight hours. FEW to BKN mid-
to-high clouds with bases AOA 15 kft will continue to filter through
the area, but should not cause any operational impacts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolcott
LONG TERM...Wolcott
AVIATION...Stessman

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