Morongo Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS65 KVEF 041835
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1135 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of isolated-to-scattered showers and
thunderstorms is on tap for the region this afternoon and evening.
Frequent and dangerous lightning, moderate-to-heavy rain capable of
resulting in flash flooding, and gusty outflow winds will be the
primary threats with any convection that develops. Chances for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue
through tomorrow before we begin to dry out and heat up as we head
into the weekend.
&&


.UPDATE...Expecting another afternoon of shower and thunderstorm
activity, with activity sparking up over the higher terrain around
12 PM PDT before gradually pushing into the desert valleys through
the afternoon and evening. The Flash Flood Watch continues for
northwestern San Bernardino County, Clark County, and Mohave County
including the Colorado River Valley today through 11 PM PDT. That
said, the latest high resolution Convective Allowing Models are
indicating a much lighter day (in both coverage and severity)
compared to yesterday, so it`s possible that we will be able to
cancel the watch early. With that said, we`re still looking at PWATs
over 200 percent of normal for this time of year across the forecast
area. CAPE is not as impressive as yesterday - about 500 J/kg lower -
in southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona, but DCAPE between 1200
and 1500 J/kg remains consistent across southeastern California,
returning the threat for strong gusty winds with thunderstorms. Some
areas across our forecast area have elevated sensitivities today, as
a result of storm activity yesterday (clean up and/or restoration
operations) including a power outage across Death Valley National
Park due to 20 power poles down, dirt and debris over roadways in
the Mojave National Preserve, and water and rocks over roadways
across southern San Bernardino County south of Needles and between
Joshua Tree and Twentynine Palms. These areas will have additional
consideration this afternoon with regard to any shower or
thunderstorm activity that occurs. No changes to the forecast this
morning.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...426 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025/


.SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow.

Convective activity continues to wind down in the lower Colorado
River Valley. Once this convection dies off, we should see a brief
lull during the morning hours before our next round of showers and
thunderstorms begins. The cut-off low that helped to fuel Tuesday`s
convection will continue to move through southern California and
into Arizona today, weakening as it goes. Lingering cloud cover from
nocturnal convection across the southern and eastern portions of our
forecast area will limit daytime heating during the morning hours,
with storms expected to ignite first in areas where heating is
maximized under the mostly-sunny to clear skies off to the northwest
of these clouds. However, even with the cloud cover across the
southeastern portion of our forecast area, precipitable water values
around 0.75 to 1.0+ inches will help to fuel any convection that
develops or moves into the area. When you combine this anomalous
moisture with modest CAPE between 500 to 1,000 J/kg, we are looking
at another round of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing
moderate-to-heavy rain, which may result in instances of flash
flooding. As such, the Flash Flood Watch has been extended through
11:00 pm PDT/MST this evening for the Colorado River Valley, Mohave
County, the Mojave Preserve, and southern Nevada. A weak front will
front will move through the Great Basin and into our forecast area
late this afternoon into the evening hours. Shear will increase to
around 20 to 30 knots across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona
with this front. This will help to organize and sustain storms into
the evening hours, which is why the Flash Flood Watch goes well into
the evening hours instead of dropping off around sunset.

While we will see a slight decrease in moisture on Thursday, we will
still have sufficient moisture for yet another round of afternoon
convection fueled by daytime heating. Frequent and dangerous
lightning, moderate-to-heavy rain capable of resulting in flooding,
and gusty outflow winds will be a threat with any storms that
develop today and tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

After an unsettled week, a substantial warming and drying trend will
get underway on Friday. Persistent troughing that has allowed
multiple systems to impact the region will give way to ridging, with
both ensemble guidance and cluster analyses indicating a
strengthening ridge over the weekend and into early next week, with
at least some semblance of ridging lingering through at least
midweek. Increasing thicknesses and associated subsidence will
result in PWATs gradually returning to near and below normal, with a
return to well above normal temperatures. Fairly widespread highs in
the 90s and lower 100s are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
Monday currently looking to be the hottest day of the forecast.
Along with the warming temperatures will be increasing HeatRisk,
with "Major" HeatRisk returning to Death Valley and the Lower
Colorado River Valley on Saturday, gradually expanding across other
lower elevations through early next week, with "Extreme" HeatRisk
possible for the lowest Valleys from Sunday through Tuesday. As to
be expected in this pattern, aside from some lingering precipitation
chances over far northeastern Lincoln County Friday afternoon, dry
conditions are expected.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... Expect
shower and thunderstorm activity forming over the Clark County
mountains once again between 18 and 19Z before pushing into the
valley this afternoon. Best chances of thunderstorm activity over
area terminals exists between 21 and 01Z this afternoon (30-40%).
With thunderstorm activity, expect moderate-to-heavy rainfall,
erratic, gusty winds from their direction, and CIGs down to 8 kft.
Without thunderstorm influence, winds will favor the south-southeast
between 6 and 8 kts this afternoon... becoming southwesterly after
sunset. Thursday afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity return,
favoring the mountains early-afternoon once again.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Removed vicinity
thunderstorm activity from KDAG, KEED, and KIFP this afternoon.
Elsewhere, shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the mountains
between 18 and 19Z before gradually pushing into the valleys this
afternoon and evening. Best chances for precipitation at Las Vegas
Valley terminals as well as KBIH exist between 21 and 01Z. With
thunderstorm activity, expect moderate-to-heavy rainfall, erratic,
gusty winds from their direction, and CIGs down to 8 kft... down to
6 kft at KBIH. Without thunderstorm influence, expect breezy south
winds between 5 and 10 kts, with the exception of KDAG where gusty
west winds will pick up after sunset between 20 and 25 kts.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Soulat
SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Soulat

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