Birmingham, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

907
FXUS64 KHUN 162240
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
440 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 945 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

 - A medium to high chance of showers along with chances of
   thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening; with some of the
   storms potentially strong.

 - Another system may bring low to medium chances of showers and
   storms for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Surface high pressure over the SE coast was providing a light
southerly flow across the Tennessee Valley. A weak system moving
eastward across the southern Plains was beginning to bring high
clouds across our western areas. Otherwise under sunny skies,
temperatures so far have outperformed previous thoughts, now up
into the mid 50s - a nice departure from a few days ago. Temps may
go up another degree or so in the next hour, but will quickly cool
as we go into the evening hours. With the general warming trend,
temperatures tonight should not be a chilly like the last few
nights. Night time lows should cool into the 30s (lower 30s east
to mid/upper 30s west).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 945 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

The moisture increase could bring a few light showers over our
more western locations Wednesday morning. The blends have kept
this small chance in, will concur with that. Despite more clouds
than sun, high temperatures Wed should rise into the low/mid 50s,
and lows in the upper 30s east to mid 40s west. A system
currently nearing coastal British Columbia will head eastward,
reaching the western Great Lakes by Thursday morning. Greater
moisture over the region, and the approach of a cold front will
bring medium to high chances of showers to the Valley beginning
late Wed night and continuing Thu. Lower end chances of
thunderstorms will make a return Thu afternoon and evening. Some
of the storms could become strong to marginally severe, mainly on
areas along and north of the AL/TN border in the late afternoon
and early evening; and coinciding with a passing cold front. The
main threat would come from strong outflow wind gusts. Instability
at this time looks to be on the low side with CAPE values less
than 200 J/kg, but 0-3 SRH values in the late evening over 250 m/s
will fall to around 100 m/s in the evening. Shower activity
should end from west to east Thu night.

Despite the clouds and elevated rain chances, milder temperatures
are expected. Highs on Thu should rise into the upper 50s to lower
60s. Lows Thu night will be colder, falling back into the lower
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 933 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

By Friday, the aforementioned upper trough will swing to the
east, with mainly zonal flow taking hold over the region through
much of the weekend. By late weekend into Monday, northwest flow
will develop aloft over the Tennessee Valley due to a
strengthening upper ridge over the central CONUS. Surface high
pressure looks to build over the Tennessee Valley Friday into
Saturday; however, this will be short lived as another cold front
moves over the region from its parent storm system to the north
for late weekend into early next week. In addition, a low pressure
system may form over eastern Texas and slide northeast along that
cold front. We`ll need to keep an eye on how these features
evolve as they will effect our rain and storm chances. Thus, with
much uncertainty in the model guidance at this point, generally
low to medium (20-40%) chances of showers and storms are given by
the NBM from Saturday night into early Monday.

After a cool down on Friday after FROPA, expect another warming
trend to take hold from Saturday through early next week. Highs on
Friday are forecast to be in the 40s then warm into the lower to
mid 60s by Monday. Lows will follow a similar trend, likely
warming into the mid to upper 40s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 440 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast with ceilings remaining
at or above 100agl. There is a very low probability of high-based
SHRA in northwest into north central AL after 12Z, but confidence
is too low to include at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...17