Birmingham, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS64 KHUN 232329
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
529 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 227 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Surface high pressure settles over the Northeast today and sets up
a cold air damming pattern for the Southeast. Dry dew points in
the mid 20s to low 30s and calm winds will set up decent
radiational cooling. However, debris cirrus from convection to our
west will limit the most ideal conditions, leading to overnight
low temperatures bottoming out in the upper 20s to low 30s early
Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

The short term period marks the beginning of a series of shortwave
troughs marching through the Central Plains. Despite a coastal low
pushing up the Carolinas on Tuesday, the CAD setup remains in
place through Wednesday. An initial shortwave originally forecast
to bring in some rain Christmas Eve into Christmas (Tuesday night
to Wednesday) has slowed and will track farther south. As a
result, rain chances were lowered into the 10-20% range. With the
drier air from CAD in place, it will take a little longer for the
atmospheric column to moisten sufficiently for precipitation, so
rain chances now don`t begin until midday Wednesday/Christmas.
Good news for Santa and Rudolph! Temperatures remain near daily
averages with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

The long term forecast will be plagued with the passage of
several shortwaves amounting to prolonged low to medium (20-60%)
rain chances from Friday through Sunday. Continued SE surface flow
will maintain a warm and moist airmass with highs in the 50s and
60s each day and lows limited to high 40s and low 50s. Despite
prolonged rain chances, thunder prospects appear to be limited in
scope given the meager instability hinted at by ensemble guidance
Saturday into Sunday. Even the 90th percentile SBCAPE values are
producing 100-200 J/kg per the grand ensemble. However, for those
traveling back from out of town, especially places to the west,
keep a close eye on the forecast! The feature to look out for
locally is if models start developing a secondary surface low near
the Mid Mississippi Valley or Mid South. That would increase
moisture advection locally, and subsequently our instability,
which would elevate the threat for thunderstorms and a strong
storm or two. This is a very unlikely scenario right now.

The primary impact for the TN Valley will be heavy rainfall with
winds currently parallel to an approaching cold front that will
stall over the area until a subsequent shortwave trough can push
it through the region on the 29th to 30th of December. Rainfall
totals right now top out at 1-2" but embedded areas of 3"+ cannot
be ruled out at this time. We will monitor the heavy rainfall
threat as we progress through the week. Best case is this is
beneficial rain for our drought (most likely). Worst case right
now is a few areas of localized flooding (very low chance).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the TAF
period. Some high clouds could produce a broken deck around 10K
feet between 9Z and 12Z at both terminals. Otherwise, winds
should remain around 4 knots. Winds should become even lighter
after daybreak as an area of high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KTW