Montague, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

460
FXUS66 KMFR 292142
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
242 PM PDT Thu May 29 2025

.SHORT TERM...this afternoon through Saturday (5/31)...

* Dry conditions expected through the forecast period with late
  July/early August temperatures expected Friday, leading to a
  moderate risk for heat related illnesses.

* Hot temperatures could linger across Lake and Modoc counties
  Saturday, but overall cooler temperatures are expected from
  Saturday onward.

* Extended period has changed course. Cooler temperatures compared
  to Friday are still expected, but values will be near to
  slightly above normal as opposed to cooler than normal.
  Additionally, precipitation chances have been removed from the
  forecast.

Zonal flow is in place this afternoon following a weakening
trough that passed through the region this morning. Some light
rain was measured along the coast this morning, north of Cape
Blanco, and marine layer clouds are lingering across Coos and
Douglas Counties. Showers have tapered off over the last few hours
in those areas, and dry conditions are expected for the remainder
of the day. For the rest of the area, skies are clear aside from
an area of cirrus streaming overhead. Another afternoon of breezy
winds is expected today, though weaker compared to yesterday, and
afternoon temperatures will trend cooler by a few degrees.

Friday will be a stark contrast compared to today`s conditions as
the ridge and thermal trough return in full force. A sharp warming
trend is expected with afternoon temperatures a few degrees warmer
than peak summer values. Guidance shows highs across forecast area
(with the exception of the coast and mountains) to be in the upper
80s and low to mid 90s. Values in the upper 90s with triple digit
highs possible are most likely across the valleys of Siskiyou County
and here in the Rogue Valley (where there is a 15% chance of
reaching 100 degrees). Currently, HeatRisk values maintain a
moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in these areas, especially
for those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Given
the short duration of these hot temperatures, will hold off on any
heat related headlines for now. For those who are sensitive to heat,
take extra precautions on Friday to protect yourself from potential
heat related illnesses. Even if you aren`t sensitive to this type of
heat, take it easy as this will be the hottest temperatures of the
year so far. Remember, area rivers and waterways are still very cold
and currents are running fast. If you decide to cool off at the
local swimming hole, be sure to practice cold water safety.

The focus of the heat shifts eastward on Saturday. This will bring
cooler temperatures for most areas (about 5-10 degrees cooler), with
the exception being for far eastern areas (Lake/Modoc Counties).
Another trough will pass through the region on Saturday, again with
most of the energy and precipitation chances passing north of the
forecast area. With another dry front, we anticipate another round
of gusty winds across the region. Winds on Saturday could be
stronger than what occurred yesterday (Wednesday), with gusts of 20
to 30 mph possible Saturday afternoon. Mid-level moisture and
instability look insufficient for thunderstorm development at this
time for Saturday. However, daytime humidities will be pretty low
Saturday afternoon, and when combined with these winds, there could
be some heightened fire weather concerns given how little rain has
fallen in the region lately. Please use extra caution this weekend
if dealing with anything that could create a spark or open flame.

.LONG TERM...Sunday (6/1) through Thursday (6/5)...Guidance regarding
the extended period has considerably changed course. Over the recent
days, guidance showed a deep upper level trough developing almost
directly over southern Oregon/northern California, which would have
brought a considerable cooler pattern with precipitation potential.
Now guidance takes some energy from the Saturday trough, and forms a
weak low off the southern California coast and is more progressive
with the main trough swinging through the westerlies. It should be
noted that there looks to be a period Sunday afternoon when the weak
low is developing offshore, a brief period of deep layer of north to
northeast flow is expected over the region. This will bring yet
another round of gusty winds, this time from the north to northeast.
Winds could be on the stronger side Sunday afternoon across the
Siskiyous/Kalmiopsis/Marble Mountains/Coastal Range of Curry County,
with current guidance suggesting gusts of 25-35 mph being common and
a 30% chance of gusts reaching up to 40 mph under this pattern.
Winds will be fairly gusty across the whole forecast area, and
humidities similar to those on Saturday. This will result in Sunday
being another heightened fire weather concern day, so again, please
use extra caution if dealing with anything that involves a spark or
open flame.

Northwest to zonal flow will persist through the remainder of the
week, occasionally sending weak impulses through the region. The
main effect of this change in the guidance is that precipitation
chances have dwindled, with dry conditions now expected through the
remainder of the forecast period. With the region being in
northwest/zonal flow, however, temperatures will remain closer to,
to a few degrees above seasonal normals, and no sharp warm-ups (like
on Friday) are expected at this time. /BR-y

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z TAFs...A weak front is moving onshore this
morning. This has brought MVFR conditions with local IFR ceilings to
the coast this morning. Conditions along the coast are expected to
improve to VFR between 18-21Z.  Inland, expect mainly VFR through
the TAF period. Early morning MVFR is possible in central Douglas
County, mainly northwest of Roseburg. Winds this afternoon will
strengthen some with gusts near 15 to 20 mph in the Rogue Valley,
near the Shasta Valley, and Lake County. -CC/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Thursday, May 29, 2025...North winds and
seas have been increasing this afternoon into Friday with steep seas
south of Cape Blanco, expanding to south of Cape Arago by late
Thursday evening. Locally, very steep seas are possible south of
Gold Beach Friday evening.

Then, as north winds increase further Saturday and Sunday, steep to
very steep and hazardous seas are possible across the waters with
the strongest winds and steepest seas expected south of Cape Blanco.
Current guidance continues to support gales developing for areas
south of Cape Blanco. Right now, there is a 40-60% probability for
gale gusts south of Cape Blanco, so will look for incoming model
data to issue a Gale Watch. These conditions are expected to persist
into Monday. Winds may lower slightly on Tuesday but steep to very
steep seas may persist. -CC/Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

MNF/ANH