Lookout, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

195
FXUS66 KMFR 090936
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
236 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.DISCUSSION...Heat and thunderstorms will be the concerns of the
day, with the threat of thunderstorms continuing into Tuesday.
Cooler temperatures then arrive for the second half of the week,
and continue into the weekend, with the possibility of a few
showers by early next week.

Roseburg hit a new daily record high yesterday, and with today`s
temperatures across the area expected to be very similar to
yesterday, or even a couple of degrees warmer east of the
Cascades, more daily record highs are forecast to fall again. The
sites most likely to reach new records includes Roseburg once
again, as well as Medford and Mount Shasta City. Temperatures will
remain hot Tuesday as the overhead ridge begins to weaken, but
highs will trend about 5 degrees cooler than today. By Wednesday,
the ridge exits the area and a broad general troughing pattern
will move into the Pacific Northwest, allowing temperatures to
fall to near seasonal normals and remain there for the remainder
of the forecast, that is, into early next week.

In between the ridge currently over the Pacific Northwest and the
weak trough over central and southern California, the mid level
flow is feeding moisture to the north, and this moisture will push
well into our forecast area by this afternoon. With the ongoing
heat combining with this moisture, instability will develop,
setting the stage for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, mainly over Siskiyou and Modoc counties, but to a lesser
extent across southern portions of Jackson, Josephine, Klamath and
Lake counties as well. The lifting trigger is weak, but given the
amount of instability, it won`t take much to get storms to
develop, which the high resolution CAMs support in the latest
runs. These will be high based storms, but given the increased
precipitable water content over the region, precipitation is
possible, especially over portions of Siskiyou County. Also, given
the dry lower layers, gusty winds are possible with any cells as
evaporative cooling creates strong downdraft potential.

Tuesday is shaping up to be even more convectively active as
moisture continues to stream into the area. Also, a stronger
upper trough will approach from the west and there`s good
agreement the upper trough axis will still be just offshore late
Tuesday afternoon, in just the right place and time to take
advantage of the instability and trigger more widespread
convection, basically producing thunderstorm chances over all but
the coast and the Umpqua Basin. Given the position of the upper
trough axis, increased wind shear aloft, the higher moisture
levels, and stronger trigger, isolated strong storms with hail and
gusty winds are possible.

Storms could linger into the overnight hours Tuesday, or perhaps
even into early Wednesday morning, with the upper trough axis
still moving across the area. Any overnight convection is likely
to be isolated and confined to portions of Lake and Klamath
County.

Other than the slight chance for storms for the areas mentioned
above Wednesday morning, we`ll be heading into a pattern of upper
troughing that will persist into Fathers Day weekend. The net result
will be cooler afternoon temperatures for the interior with near
normal temperature values for the latter part of the week into
next weekend. Odds are it will be dry during this time, however,
precipitation chances will not be zero as a small number of
individual ensemble members show some precipitation, especially
with the arrival of a more robust shortwave late into the weekend
or early next week. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs...Along the coast, marine stratus will
again produce widespread IFR/LIFR conditions through this morning.
Conditions will improve to VFR around 18-20z, then will lower yet
again to MVFR/IFR this evening and tonight. Inland, VFR is expected
through the TAF period. However, there is a potential for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (mainly 21-06z) across
northern California and far southern Oregon, including Yreka, Mount
Shasta, Alturas, Klamath Falls and Lakeview. There is a low chance
(10-15%) for thunderstorms Monday afternoon at Medford. Gusty
outflow winds and locally heavy downpours may occur with
thunderstorms. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Monday, June 9, 2025...As north winds
increase over continuing fresh north swell, steep seas will build
today across all the waters and persist through at least Tuesday. On
Tuesday afternoon and evening, locally very steep seas are possible
within 20 nm of shore between Cape Blanco and Gold Beach, but given
the limited coverage, a Hazardous Seas Warning does not look
necessary right now.

Models support continued gusty north winds and steep seas on
Wednesday. Then there is a potential for winds to increase further
Thursday through Saturday as the thermal trough restrengthens. This
will likely result in continued steep seas. We will also monitor for
the potential of very steep seas late in the week. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023-024-026.

CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$