Kilkare Woods, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

758
FXUS66 KMTR 071800
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 203 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

 - Warmer temperatures return Wed. through the weekend with patchy
   Moderate Heatrisk across the Bay Area and Central Coast.

 - Localized elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday through
   the weekend across portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast.

 - Slight risk (20-40%) of extreme heat for far interior portions
   of the Bay Area and Central Coast July 12th-14th.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Low clouds persist along the coast and into the coastal adjacent
valleys this morning. However, clearing is expected to occur across
the interior this afternoon with temperatures about 5 to 15 degrees
below seasonal averages. Low clouds are expected to return after
sunset near the coast and continue to fill into the valleys into
Tuesday morning as the marine layer (currently around 2,000 feet in
depth) deepens slightly. No updates anticipated for this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 203 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025
(Today and tonight)

Cooler temperatures are expected across much of the region again
today with highs running between 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
this time of year. What does that look like? Well, temperatures
across the interior will only reach the mid 70s to 80s today while
coastal areas stay in the upper 50s to 60s. Looking at Santa Rosa,
the forecasted high for today is 75 degrees but the average high is
typically around 82 degrees. For Concord, the average high is
typically around 88 degrees but the city is looking at temperatures
closer to 82 to 83 degrees today. These cooler temperatures are in
large part thanks to an upper level closed low that continues to
linger offshore of the Bay Area. The presence of this closed low has
allowed the marine layer to deepen and spread further inland,
resulting in widespread overcast conditions and cool, moist air
spreading further inland. Current observations from the Fort Ord
Wind Profiler place the marine layer depth around 1800 ft with
further deepening to 2000ft-2500ft expected through the remainder of
today. Cloud cover looks to dissipate across the interior by mid to
late morning but clearing is less likely to occur along the direct
coastline. Outside of areas where terrain funneling is likely
(mountain gaps/passes), winds generally remain light and onshore
through the rest of today. Winds have diminished across the marine
environment and along the shoreline as well. This is due to the
Pacific High weakening and shifting westward (away from our
shoreline) with the upper level closed low lingering just offshore.
The combination of weaker winds and more moist inland conditions is
helping to lower our fire risk in the short term. However, it is
important to remember fuels, both large and small, are continuing to
dry across the region with special emphasis on the higher elevations
above the marine layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 203 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Cooler, below normal temperatures are expected again on Tuesday as
the upper level closed low remains offshore. The marine layer will
deepen to around 2000ft to 3000ft by Tuesday with stratus able to
make it farther inland Monday and Tuesday night. High temperatures
on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to 80s across the interior and
upper 50s to 60s along the coastline. Tuesday into Wednesday, the
closed low offshore will start to weaken and shift northward before
gradually moving inland along the Oregon/California border. At the
same time, upper level ridging over the Four Corners Region will
start to compress and spread into Southern California. The center of
the high pressure will be located over Southern California, Southern
Nevada, and Arizona where heat products are set to go into effect
for those regions later this week. The forecast is a little more
uncertain for the Central Coast and Bay Area. To start things off, a
warming trend is on track to begin Wednesday with most sites to see
near seasonal temperatures as highs warm back into the 80s across
most of the interior. While high pressure builds across Southern
California Thursday and Friday, the upper level pattern shows a
flatter, more zonal to slight troughing over the Bay Area.
While we are expected temperatures to continue warming Thursday and
Friday, the more zonal to slight troughing will help to keep
temperatures slightly cooler than those to our south with highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s. The hottest locations continue to be the
southern most portions of the Interior Central Coast which is on the
edge of the center of the high pressure over southern California.
Temperatures across the interior Central Coast will be in the mid
90s to low 100s Thursday and Friday. In terms of HeatRisk, pockets
of moderate HeatRisk continue across urban in the Bay Area, interior
North Bay Mountains, and far interior Central Coast. Remember to
take breaks and drink plenty of water if participating in outdoors
activities on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures cool slightly into
the 80s to 90s over the weekend upper level troughing becomes
slightly more distinct across Northern California. Temperatures
across the interior Central Coast will remain fairly stable in the
mid 90s to low 100s over the weekend as high pressure continues over
Southern California. A few isolated pockets of moderate HeatRisk
will continue across urban areas and the North Bay Interior
Mountains but will not be widespread enough to be very impactful.
Winds remain light and onshore through this weekend with locally
breezier winds across mountain gaps and passes (Altamont Pass,
Salinas Valley).

As mentioned in the short term, both small and large fuels are
drying out with warmer temperatures increasing the likelihood of
further drying Wednesday into the weekend. This does result in
localized elevated fire weather concerns, particularly across the
higher elevations above the marine layer, Wednesday through the
weekend. While winds remain fairly light and onshore, small fuels
have cured and larger fuels are drying out so extreme caution is
needed if participating in any outdoor activities involving sparks
or flames. Remember, most wildfires are started by human activities.
One less spark, one less wildfire.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The marine layer stratus is retreating back to the coast late this
morning as expected. Most terminals will enjoy VFR conditions
through the afternoon before coastal stratus returns this evening.
With a surface low pressure offshore, the wind direction will be
tricky today as the weak synoptic southerly forcing competes with
the afternoon sea breeze. Overall the swirling winds will be
gentle to moderate.

Vicinity of SFO...The terminal cleared up around 17Z with no
significant impacts expected through the afternoon. As the sea
breeze develops this afternoon, the wind will shift to some
variation of westerly. The exact direction is hard to pin down,
and could range from SW to NW, and may even flip between the two.
MVFR stratus will return this evening with a good chance for
drizzle early Tuesday morning as the marine layer remains deep.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Visible satellite shows that while SNS
is clearing out, MRY will take at least another hour. Both
terminals will only maintain VFR conditions for a brief period
before an early return of stratus tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 845 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate
southerly winds across the coastal waters with moderate seas.
Winds will increase to a moderate to strong NW breeze by
Wednesday, building rough seas by Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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