Hidden Valley Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

840
FXUS66 KMFR 220553
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1053 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...

.AVIATION...22/06Z TAFs...Onshore flow is producing LIFR at the
coast from Cape Blanco northward this evening. Beginning around 09Z,
LIFR is also expected along the south coast near Brookings. The
coastal LIFR is expected to begin to erode after sunrise, with VFR
expected from around 18Z late Monday morning through around 03Z
Monday evening. Coastal LIFR is then expected to surge back to the
coast for Monday night. Elsewhere, VFR will persist with mostly
clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1000 PM PDT Sunday, June 21, 2026...North winds
will continue to strengthen through Monday evening. The result will
be strong northerly winds and very steep seas south of Cape Blanco
while steep seas remain across most of the northern waters. There
may be isolated areas of gale force gusts through Monday evening for
areas south of Cape Blanco. A pattern of northerly winds is likely
to continue through mid-week, with winds remaining at Small Craft
Advisory strength south of Cape Blanco while fresh swell continues
steep seas in the northern outer waters beyond 30 nm from shore.

Conditions briefly improve on Thursday. A cold frontal system is
likely to bring light rain and a modest increase in fresh west-
northwest swell Thursday night into early Saturday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 450 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

SYNOPSIS...Warm daytime temperatures will create some elevated
heat risk for valley locations Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
trend cooler mid week before a cold front pushes through
around Thursday night and Friday morning. Light rain will likely
fall across most of Oregon Friday.

DISCUSSION...

Some cumulus fields are building over portions of northern
California and south central Oregon this afternoon. A 500 mb ridge
over the eastern Pacific continues to build while troughing
continues over portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies today. As a result, temperatures should remain right
around seasonal normals for mid June. Fog and low stratus will
spread back into the coast and coastal valleys later tonight as
the marine layer remains compressed with some light onshore flow.

Zonal flow aloft with a weak thermal trough west of the Cascades
will develop by Monday afternoon. The thermal trough will increase
temperatures 7 to 8 degrees warmer for highs with many locations
hitting the upper 90`s for highs in south western Oregon.
Temperatures have trended cooler compared to previous model runs a
few days ago and the risk for heat illness around Douglas County
is pretty small from Monday into Tuesday. Therefore, we cancelled
the heat advisory for that area. However, small areas of
elevated/moderate heat risk persist here in Jackson/Josephine and
portions of northern California. Therefore, we continued the heat
advisory for those locations.

Medford`s normal high for this time of year is 83 and we`re
forecasting 97 on Monday and 96 on Tuesday, so a solid 10 to 15
degrees above normal early next week.

A short wave will push into the region by Tuesday afternoon,
although temperatures only move a few degrees lower. In any case,
it should be breezy Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday as a stronger
pressure gradient sets up. It should be gusty over higher terrain
Wednesday afternoon around Crater Lake and the Siskiyou Mountains.
Stronger onshore flow sets up Wednesday night into Thursday as yet
another short wave pushes into the Pacific Northwest.

The big change will come by Friday morning as models are
forecasting a plume of warm moist air to move in ahead of the
cold front. This will likely bring rain to the area with a 50%
chance of precipitation over locations west of the Cascades. Those
probabilities decrease significantly farther to the south in
California and east of the Cascades on Friday. With a cold front
this strong, one also thinks about the potential for
thunderstorms. However, the ECWMF ensemble members are not showing
any CAPE with this frontal passage in the morning. Some members
are bringing the instability in the afternoon east of the
Cascades, so we`ll have to watch out for that in future model
runs. In any case, the rain and cooler temperatures will be
welcomed with respect to fire weather threats and fuel conditions
over the next few weeks.

-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024-
     026.

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for
     CAZ080>082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT
     Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-370-376.

&&

$$