Dorris, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXUS66 KMFR 151124
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
424 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...Aviation discussion updated...

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.AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs...Along the coast, areas of IFR/LIFR are
developing through this morning, mainly north of Cape Blanco. Then,
conditions clear to VFR early this afternoon. Gusty north winds are
expected in the afternoon and evening along the coast as well. For
inland areas, VFR is expected through the TAF period with an
afternoon uptick in winds to ~7-10 kt. -Hermansen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2025/

DISCUSSION...There have been only a few changes to the forecast
this morning, with many parameters virtually the same as the
previous day`s. The only noticeable changes have been the
reduction of area of thunderstorm concern Tuesday and Wednesday,
and removal of shower chances for the East Side Thursday. More on
that below.

The upper ridge and surface thermal trough will shift east today,
resulting in slight cooling west of the Cascades. At the same
time, we`ll be sandwiched in between a weak approaching upper
trough from the west and a cut off upper low off the California
coast. Mid level moisture will move up from the south ahead of the
upper low, providing enough fuel for convective showers in
northern California mid to late Tuesday afternoon and evening. An
isolated thunderstorm or two is not out of the question, and due
to an east to northeast steering flow, a few may even sneak into
southern Klamath and Lake counties in the evening. The models are
now showing significant dry air in the lower levels, suggesting
that if thunderstorms do form, they are likely to be high based,
with little to no rainfall expected to reach the surface, and
therefore an increased potential for gusty outflow winds.

On Wednesday, the pattern will shift slightly, this time placing
the area between the cutoff upper low slowly creeping towards the
California coast, and an approaching and stronger upper trough
digging south from Canada. The upper trough from the north could
put a squeeze play on the incoming moisture from the south, basically
pushing the moisture and instability to the south and east. This
will keep the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm chances out of
the forecast area, but a few locations in southern Siskiyou and
Modoc County, and maybe even along the Warners in Lake County,
could still see an isolated storm or two Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening.

The aforementioned stronger upper trough will drop south into our
area Wednesday night into Thursday, a feature we like to call an
"inside slider." The trajectory of this upper trough has shifted
farther to the east in the latest model runs, and now it looks
like any shower potential will remain well to the east of Lake
County. Other than these low precipitation chances, we do expect
a cooler and drier air mass to arrive with the trough, with
moderate to occasionally strong north winds east of the Cascades
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, and then again, but to a
lesser extent, Friday afternoon.

Warm and dry conditions then return Friday and Saturday as
ridging builds in overhead, allowing for another few days of warm
daytime highs and mostly clear skies. A weak impulse could pass
over the area Saturday, but little will mark its passage other
than some increased cloudiness and breezy afternoon winds.
Precipitation chances will hold off until a more robust shortwave
arrives Sunday or Monday, but even then the bulk of rain chances
will stay relegated to the coast and the Umpqua Basin, if any
measurable precipitation occurs at all. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 230 AM Tuesday, April 15th...The thermal trough
strengthens and northerly winds increase this morning, with the
strongest winds south of Cape Blanco. Very steep and hazardous seas
will develop south of Cape Blanco this morning, then spread to
waters south of Cape Arago by this evening. Steep seas will be
present for waters north of Cape Arago, and these conditions will
continue through Wednesday. Occasional wind gusts gusts of 38-42 kt
are possible south of Port Orford and within 30 nm of shore in this
Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

Steep to very steep seas look to remain in area waters through the
rest of the week and into the weekend. -TAD/Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early
     this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-
     370-376.

&&

$$