Casmalia, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

078
FXUS66 KLOX 151737
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1037 AM PDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/450 AM.

The cooling trend will continue through Saturday and by the weekend
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Night through
morning low clouds and fog will continue for coast and coastal
valleys through the period. A warming trend will begin Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...15/845 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is well on-track, and no changes have been made to
the ongoing forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Two June like day on tap today and Saturday as a trof sits over
the state with 588 dam hgts. At the sfc there will be mdt to
strong onshore flow to the east and weak to moderate onshore flow
to the north. The marine layer is about 2300 ft deep and low
clouds cover the csts and most of the vlys. Lower than normal
hgts, stronger than normal onshore flow and a deeper than normal
marine layer will add up to to a much cooler than normal day. Most
max temps will be about 5 degrees blo normal but the LA/VTA vlys
will end up about 10 degrees under norms with max temps only in
the 80s.

Saturday will look much like today. Look for lots of low clouds in
the morning with slow clearing. Max temps will be similar to
today`s as well save for a few degrees of warming across the
Central Coast where the onshore push will be a little weaker.

On Sunday the trof will begin to move back west as a powerful
summer time upper high over TX begins to expand westward. More
importantly the onshore flow to the east will be about 2 mb weaker
and there will be actual offshore flow from the north in morning
with only weak onshore flow in the afternoon. While the trof will
still allow for some cooling across the interior. The weaker
onshore, however, will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to the
csts/vlys. Despite any warming max temps will remain well below
normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...15/1252 AM.

Good confidence in a decent warm up next week. All mdls show the
massively large and hot upper high expanding over the state
during the period. Hgts rise from 588 dam to 595 dam (average hgts
this time of year are ~589 dam). At the sfc the afternoon onshore
push to the east will weaken by about 3 mb. There is quite a bit
of mdl disagreement on the N/S gradient but the most likely
scenario is for there to be weak onshore push in the afternoon and
a weak offshore push in the morning. There is, however, some chc
that there will be offshore flow through the day.

The night through morning low cloud pattern will continue across
the coasts. The vlys will likely remain clear as the rising hgts
will likely smoosh the marine layer to under 1000 ft and the
weaker onshore flow will not be able to push it very far inland.
Some coastal areas more susceptible to northerly flow (such as
the SBA county south coast and the Malibu area may be cloud free
as the offshore flow in the morning increases.

Right now max temps are fcst to rise 2 to 4 degrees both Mon and
Tue and then 1 to 2 degrees Wed and Thu. There is a 30 percent chc
that there could be even more warming that fcst on Wed and Thu
(largely due to the possibility of better offshore flow from the
north). Despite the warming most max temps will remain below
normal through Tuesday before reaching and exceeding normal Wed
and Thu. Triple digit heat is likely for the western San Fernando
Vly starting on Wed. There is a growing chc that heat advisories
and warnings may be needed at the end of next week.

The upper high is also in a position (around the 4 corners) that
could allow for some monsoon moisture to advect in to the area.
Right now there is not much of an indication that this will
happen but it is still early and the situation bears watching. If
anything does develop it would most likely affect the eastern
San Gabriel Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1736Z.

At 1725Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3700 ft with a temperature of 19 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF with seasonally
gusty SW winds.

Deep marine layer will likely result in slower clearing times
today, and have made slight adjustments in latest TAF package.
Moderate risk of little to no clearing today at KOXR KSMO KLAX.
Moderate confidence in similar return ceiling times and heights
tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in ceilings staying in MVFR category
OVC015-020 today. Low confidence on presence and timing of any
clearing, with a 50 percent chance of no clearing at all. If
clearing occurs, it will likely be in the 22-03Z time window.
High confidence in ceilings tonight staying above OVC012.
Southeast winds of 4 to 7 knots likely to return overnight into
early Saturday morning, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding
08 knots for an hour or two.

KBUR...Based on satellite trends, have backed off clearing time
of MVFR cigs at KBUR by a couple hours. Ceilings will return
tonight, likely staying above OVC010, with a likely return window
of 04-08Z.

&&

.MARINE...15/449 AM.

High confidence in seasonally gusty NW winds across the waters
beyond 20 miles from shore between the Central Coast to San
Nicolas Island. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will be
common each day into next week, except for some morning lulls.
Brief and very localized gale force gusts to 35 knots from Point
Conception to San Nicolas Island may occur each evening. The
nearshore Central Coast waters will see winds rising to near-SCA
levels each afternoon and evening, likely weakest today. The
western Santa Barbara Channel will also see SCA conditions each
late afternoon and evening, but confidence in winds becoming
widespread enough to warrant an SCA is low. All areas will see
choppy seas from these winds in the late afternoon through late
night hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Cohen
AVIATION...Gomberg/Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...MW/ASR

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox