Blue Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

883
FXUS65 KPSR 261147
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
447 AM MST Sat Apr 26 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

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.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures, with continued breezy to locally windy
conditions, will be the main weather highlights today. Dry
conditions with below normal temperatures continue into next
week, with steady warming extending into the latter portions of
the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
While clear skies encompass the Desert Southwest early this
morning, a deep low circulation continues to deepen along the
central to southern California coastline. This disturbance is
ushering in much cooler temperatures into the region over the next
several days as negative mid-level height anomalies linger into
early next week. The coolest day is set for tomorrow, where highs
could be around 10 degrees below normal as the core of this trough
brushes across northern Arizona.

The main weather impacts for today include breezy to locally windy
conditions, which are anticipated to match or exceed winds
observed yesterday, especially across south-central Arizona. A
Wind Advisory remains in effect for the southwest corner of
Imperial County, where stronger gusts up to 55 mph are anticipated
in the higher terrain. Elected to not expand wind advisories into
the lower deserts of Imperial County due to marginal chances
(20-40%) of extended periods of advisory-level winds, but don`t be
surprised if there are periodic wind gusts in excess of 40 mph
with some lofted dust late this afternoon and into the evening
hours. In addition to the elevated winds across the region,
elevated fire weather conditions are a concern for the southern
portions of Gila County due to the combination of strong winds
(gusts to 35 mph), low RH`s (8-10%), and burnable fuels exceeding
the 70th percentile in spots.

As the core of the upper level trough migrates eastward across
Arizona tomorrow, the pressure gradient will begin to relax,
resulting in winds weakening going into next week. Ensembles
remain in excellent agreement of the main longwave energy lifting
northeastward into the northern Plains by Tuesday, but residual
troughing locally across southwest CONUS keeping temperatures from
rebounding by no more than a couple of degrees each day through
the middle of next week. At that point, flat or weak ridging will
build across western CONUS, enhancing the warming trend through
the end of next week. Thus, temperatures will remain below or near
normal through at least Wednesday, with above normal temperatures
returning through the end of the week.

Larger ensemble spread becomes more noticeable late next week and
into next weekend, as attention turns towards the next troughing
feature that will reach the West Coast. Clustering analysis shows
a variety of scenarios ranging from a weak trough that may only
cool temperatures slightly, with much deeper solutions resulting
much cooler temperatures by next weekend. Thus, low confidence at
this point of the pattern evolution beyond next Friday, as
temperatures spreads continue to be large (10-15 degrees between
the NBM interquartile ranges).

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1150Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
The main aviation concern over the next 24 hrs will be elevated
southerly crosswinds this morning followed by gusty southwest
winds in the 20-25 kt range this afternoon into the evening.
Current light E/SE winds will shift S-SSW by 15-17Z, with gusts
into the teens then possible through the rest of the morning. A
slow transition to SW will transpire late morning into the
afternoon with gusts increasing to around 20-25 kts. Winds will
diminish again around sunset. Clear skies will prevail through
much of the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concern over the next 24 hours will strong,
gusty W/SW winds. Gusts will materialize at both terminals by mid
morning, peaking in strength by the late afternoon/evening. There
is a moderate chance that gusts could reach 35-40 kts at KIPL
late this afternoon into the evening, which could lead to brief
sfc visibility reductions to around 6SM from blowing dust/haze.
Mostly clear skies will prevail during the forecast timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy to windy conditions will continue to impact the region
today, where higher terrain areas could experience gusts 30-40
mph. This will result in an elevated fire danger, particularly
for higher elevation of eastern districts. Temperatures cooling
below normal will allow an increase in humidity levels, and in
combination with some fuels not quite fully cured should preclude
critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, afternoon minRHs will
generally fall into a 15-25% range through the first part of next
week before return to a 10-15% range by the middle of the week.
Fair to good overnight recovery of 30-60% will retreat towards
poor to fair (20-40%) during the middle of next week as
temperatures warm back towards the seasonal normal.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ562.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Whittock/Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Young/18