Bell, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

010
FXUS66 KLOX 222251
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
351 PM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...22/912 AM.

Dry conditions with warmer temperatures are expected today.
Monsoon moisture will be increasing tonight into Tuesday
resulting increasing shower and thunderstorm chances that will
continue into at least Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected
through the weekend as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...22/232 PM.

Quiet weather day today with a shallow marine layer creating
patches of dense fog near the coast and temperatures a little
warmer than yesterday, especially inland.

The weather pattern becomes much more complex Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next surge of monsoon moisture arrives. The main
complication is the wandering upper low which with each run
results in a slightly different outcome, mostly in terms of the
location of the expected activities. Models have been consistent
showing the next moisture surge coming up Tuesday, but really
peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday. This coincides with
increasing instability as the upper low wobbles towards the
northeast, settling just off the Central Coast. Forecast soundings
show some strong signals for heavy lightning activity along and
off the Central Coast, including the western portion of southern
Santa Barbara County and possibly including the outer channel
islands. Will probably see lightning picking up from the south
well offshore in the afternoon, but then peaking Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning along the Central Coast. In addition,
there will be periods of heavy showers in these areas,
particularly where there is training of storms, but also some
areas where thunderstorms may not receive significant rain
creating localized dry lightning strikes. The high potential for
strong updrafts means there will also be hail and gusty winds at
times.

Again the location of all this is largely based on the model
forecast of the upper low, which could swing as much as 100 miles
in any direction. So while confidence in the resulting weather
conditions is at least moderate to high, confidence in the
location of those conditions is still on the lower side. As an
example of this, the last couple model runs have shifted the low a
little more to the west and if this continues a lot the severe
weather could remain over the coastal waters.

With the low expected to start drifting slowly towards the east
on Wednesday, areas to the east, including Ventura and LA
Counties, will have increasing chances of showers but thunderstorm
chances will be decreasing and sounding profiles become less
favorable for convection. Not a zero chance but definitely lower
than areas to the west.

The forecast for Thursday is dry for now, but the upper low is
still expected to be in the area so as it gets closer would not be
surprised if some shower/storm chances are added, especially in
the mountains. Otherwise, temperatures will continue a slow
cooling trend.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...22/239 PM.

Forecast is rain free through the weekend but the same upper low
remains in the vicinity into early next week so can`t totally
rule out a shower or thunderstorm, especially in the mountains.
PW`s remain well above normal so the muggy conditions will
continue, though temperatures are expected to cool to near normal
levels. Also, there are a couple tropical systems off Mexico that
could introduce additional moisture and instability depending on
how the upper level pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1713Z.

Around 1629Z, the marine layer depth was around 1000 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 2500 feet with a
temperature near 22 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD,
and KWJF. 10% chance for LIFR conds between 12Z and 17Z at KBUR
and KVNY.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. Arrival times may be off +/-
2 hours for KSMX and KSBP, and +/- 3 hours for remaining TAFs.
There is a 15% chance for vsbys 1/2SM to 1SM at KSMO ad KLAX
between 08Z and 15Z. 10% chance of no low clouds at sites south
of Point Conception.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival may be off +/- 3 hours.
15% chance for vsbys 1/2SM to 1SM between 08Z and 15Z. Any east
wind component should remain less than 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. 10% chance for LIFR conds between
12Z and 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...22/219 PM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a
40-60 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
through tonight, highest across the northern outer waters. Winds
and seas will likely drop below SCA levels between late tonight
and Wednesday morning, but local NW gusts of 20-25 knots are
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is a 30-50 percent
chance of SCA level winds on Wednesday afternoon and evening,
increasing to 50-70 percent on Thursday and Friday afternoon and
evening. The highest chances will be for the waters beyond 30 NM
offshore.

Inside the southern California bight, winds and seas will likely
remain below SCA levels through Wednesday afternoon, then there is
a 30-50 percent chance of SCA levels winds Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons and evenings. The highest chances will be for the
western Santa Barbara Channel.

Moisture with a tropical disturbance to the south will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters from
Tuesday into at least Wednesday night. Low confidence exists in
the exact timing and location of showers and thunderstorms. Any
thunderstorm that forms will be capable of producing locally gale
force winds and rough seas, dangerous lightning, heavy rainfall
with reduced visibility, small hail, and waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Hall/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox