Bartlett, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

992
FXUS65 KVEF 160802
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
100 AM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today through midweek, expect similar temperatures. Late-
week, a dynamic weather system moves into the region, which will
increase chances of precipitation, gusty winds, and will cool off
temperatures substantially.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Friday Night.

The upper level low currently sitting of the southern California
Coast will begin to move inland this afternoon. Much of the CWA will
remain in the favored region of the incoming low with strong upper
diffluence and increased vorticity advection; however, there
continues to be a lack of moisture and significant instability. It
looks like most of the area will see increasing clouds this
afternoon, but the better chances of seeing any showers along with
an isolated thunderstorm will be across the higher terrain of
northern Inyo, Esmeralda, and western Nye counties where higher CAPE
values exist along with lifted indices around 0/-1. Rainfall
amounts will generally be light with totals under a tenth of an
inch. Snow amounts will also remain light with snow levels generally
around 9000 feet in the Sierra.

As the southern California low moves onshore this evening it will
begin to weaken as a stronger upper level low drops south out of the
Pacific Northwest. Surface gradients along with a strong low level
jet will set up across the western Mojave Desert leading to gusty
winds starting this evening and continuing into Friday morning where
wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph are expected. At this point, it
does not look like the stronger winds will extend into eastern San
Bernardino County, but gusts between 25 and 35 mph will still be
likely. It also look like winds across western San Bernardino County
will remain elevated through at least Friday morning. Will go ahead
and issue a Wind Advisory from 5pm this evening until 5am Friday
morning to account for these gusty southwest to west winds.

The closed low and northern shortwave trough begin to phase on
Thursday, resulting in a larger, positively-tilted trough over the
western US. At the surface, guidance shows a cold front sliding
southward through the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave
Desert. The frontal boundary should serve as the focus for
precipitation as moisture pools along ahead of it and underneath
the colder air aloft. Expecting scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorms to develop along the front Thursday afternoon, with
activity potentially continuing Thursday night and Friday as the
front sags southward. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty in
model guidance regarding the convective environment Thursday-
Friday, mainly due to discrepancies in the magnitude of low-level
moisture and its overlap with the coldest air aloft. However, it is
likely that at least modest instability (100-400 J/kg) will occur.
With wet bulb zero heights roughly 4500-6000 ft AGL in forecast
soundings, would not be surprised to see graupel and/or small hail
with the more intense convection. While PWATs are forecast to be
above the 90th percentile of climatology, this is nothing like
monsoonal moisture, so it`ll take training storms to cause any flood
concerns, and that would likely be localized and relatively minor.
On the wintry side, snow levels drop from over 8000 ft down to ~6500
ft, so some late-season minor snow accumulations are likely in the
Spring Mountains and Sierra.

Other than the precipitation chances, we will see gusty northerly
winds across Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye counties where winds may be
strong enough for wind advisories Friday. Right now, there is about
a 40-60% chance of advisory level winds being reached. Another big
change will the temperature drop from today into Friday. Today we
are still looking at readings about 7-10 degrees above normal, but
by Friday temperatures will be about 7-10 degrees below normal with
the possibility that Las Vegas struggles to reach 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

As we head into the weekend, ensemble guidance has the closed low
pushing out to the east, leaving us under a drier northwesterly or
zonal flow. Not only do precipitation chances wane, but temperatures
begin to moderate to seasonal values. By Sunday, forecast highs are
near or slightly above normal, and hold fairly steady into next
week. The synoptic pattern in the extended will favor inside sliders
or shortwaves passing well to our north. As these move by, periods
of gusty winds are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Light southerly drainage winds are expected overnight with
mostly clear skies. Southeast winds will return again tomorrow
afternoon, although speeds are forecast to be higher than earlier
today, with a greater than 50 percent chance of gusts to 20 knots
during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail tomorrow, with
mainly SCT skies with bases AOA 15kft AGL through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to what is described for Harry
Reid above, except winds at KHND are expected to remain more
southerly throughout the period.  Elsewhere, winds will tend to
follow typical diurnal direction trends with a few gusts to 25kts
possible at KDAG tonight.  Most sites will see gusty south-to-west
winds develop tomorrow afternoon.  VFR conditions will prevail
across the region through tonight, with mainly FEW to SCT skies with
bases AOA 15kft AGL.  Clouds will thicken along the Sierra tomorrow,
and a few isolated showers will be possible after 21Z near and west
of KBIH.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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