Springdale, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS64 KTSA 030520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

  - Storm chances increase tonight across northeast OK,
    spreading through the entire area Tuesday. Severe weather is
    possible.

  - Daily shower and storm chances continue most days through the next
    week.

  - Heavy rain is expected at times over the next week, with multiple
    inches of rainfall. This will lead to an increasing flash and
    mainstem river flooding threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 922 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Numerous thunderstorms ongoing across western and central OK are
generally evolving as suggested by short term guidance.
Expectation remains storms will spread into and across portions of
NE OK over the next 2-4 hours with a gradual decrease in both
coverage and intensity as the strong outflow dominant storm mode
loses the sfc based instability tap. Low level jet continues to
intensify and will remain place overnight which may offer a
somewhat more prolonged strong storm potential and/or offer
renewed storms into the late night hours atop the remnant
convective outflow. Short term guidance differs on this latter
prospect and current forecast retains some storm chance through
the overnight hours which seems prudent. Updated forecast will
incorporate observed trends and update precip chances to reflect
near term timing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Ongoing showers and storms Tuesday morning should wane and shift
eastward by mid morning as the low level jet weakens and better
forcing shifts northeastward. Attention will then turn to Tuesday
afternoon and evening as the mid level shortwave ejects out over
the Plains. As this happens, a frontal boundary will slowly sag
southward near northeast Oklahoma by Tuesday afternoon. Additional
thunderstorm development is therefore expected, possibly
beginning as early as around the noon hour near the frontal
boundary from southwest Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Forecast
sounding show a favorable environment for severe weather, with
sufficient instability and shear in place. Most wind profiles
would favor fairly quick upscale growth of the storms along the
frontal boundary. This would favor severe wind as the primary
hazard through the period, though low level shear will support
some tornado potential along the leading edge. Additionally, a
concern will be heavy rainfall as storm motions mostly parallel to
the slow moving boundary could lead to training of storms over
the same locations for a prolonged period. Considering recent
rainfall across the region and PWAT values exceeding 2" the event
will transition to more of flooding threat into the overnight
hours. Therefore, the Flood Watch will continue through Wednesday
morning.

Rain chances will dwindle behind the front on Wednesday, with lull
in the active weather expected to last at least until later in the
day Thursday. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms will
remain in the offing Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday,
but widespread rain or severe potential is expected to be rather
low following the frontal passage. Activity will pick up again
heading into the weekend as stronger westerly flow aloft develops
over the region. Several systems moving through the flow aloft
will interact with the increasingly moist airmass in place over
the Plains from Thursday night through the rest of this forecast
period. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are once again
expected. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will again become a
concern, along with some severe potential at times. Guidance
remains inconsistent on timing and placement of the heaviest rain
axis, but widespread rainfall is expected across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas through the weekend. With all the cloud
cover and rain chances, temperatures will stay fairly mild
through the period... though the mugginess will be on the increase
as the moisture content rises, sending heat indices into the 90s
at times, especially during times of more sun.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Ongoing line of storms in north central Oklahoma will likely
impact BVO during the first few hours of the valid TAF period,
with potential for gusty winds and given current observations,
largely MVFR conditions. There is a low chance that TUL/RVS will
be similarly impacted, but most CAMs indicate the line shifting
north of these terminals. As such, no impacts will be included in
these two TAFs but observational trends will be watched and
amendments made if necessary. Another line of storms is likely to
develop to the west along an approaching cold front and move
eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours tomorrow.
Given the confidence level that this will occur, TEMPO groups for
IFR impacts and gusty winds have been included at the E OK sites.
W AR terminals have PROB30 groups for MVFR impacts largely due to
an increased timing uncertainty that far east. A period of MVFR
ceilings should occur behind the line of storms/front to end the
TAF period at the E OK terminals. Gusty southerly winds can be
expected during the day at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  76  66  82 /  90  20  10  20
FSM   70  83  70  87 /  70  60  10  30
MLC   64  79  67  85 /  90  40  10  30
BVO   58  76  62  80 /  90  10  10  20
FYV   65  79  66  84 /  80  60  10  40
BYV   67  78  65  82 /  70  70  10  40
MKO   64  76  67  82 /  90  40  10  30
MIO   63  74  64  80 / 100  30  10  30
F10   62  75  64  81 / 100  30  10  30
HHW   68  81  69  85 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ054>068-070-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22