Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

873
FXUS64 KSHV 160600
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
100 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

 - Hotter and more humid conditions will remain across the region
   this weekend, with dry conditions persisting through Sunday
   morning.

 - While isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
   will be possible mainly across portions of North and Central
   Louisiana Sunday, a more unsettled weather pattern is expected
   for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A shift in the weather pattern to more of a southwesterly flow is
starting to take shape in wake of the departing upper ridge. At
the same time, southerly flow continues to ramp up in response to
sfc cyclogenesis across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. This has
resulted southerly winds near 15 mph on Friday, with gusts up to
25 mph at times. Despite this, the low-level layer of the
atmosphere remains dry. This is keeping dry conditions across the
area, despite radar returns from the presence of a weak
disturbance moving across the I-30 corridor within the upper flow
this evening. Some progs continue to hint at some slight POPs
along and north of Interstate 30 overnight, but with the lack of
low-level moisture, the decision was made to keep precipitation
out of the forecast. But, a few sprinkles can`t be ruled out. We
should keep cloud cover overnight, along with the winds. This will
yield warmer temperatures, with morning lows falling around the
70 degree mark areawide. Expect partly cloudy skies and continued
dry conditions across the region today, with highs topping out
again in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Winds will stay elevated, but
remain below Wind Advisory criteria, as the sfc low will continue
to meander across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and adjacent
Southwestern Kansas.

On Sunday, we introduce some slight rain chances, as some weak
impulses will move along the flow across the region. Models also
continue to suggest some seabreeze convection will move into our
Louisiana zones during the afternoon hours. As we move into next
week, long-term progs suggest embedded impulses will become more
frequent along the southwesterly flow, resulting in daily shower
and thunderstorm chances. In addition to this, a cold front is
expected to move into the region by mid-week, enhancing rain
chances. Uncertainty with timing and placement of convection
remains in the long-term, but with plenty of gulf moisture and
instability expected to be in place next week, daily rain chances
seem reasonable, along with the possibility of moderate to heavy
rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms. Please continue to
monitor the forecast for updates. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Plenty of cirrus and high AC currently observed across our
airspace late this evening/early this morning but look for this high
cloud cover to thin as we go through the next 24 hours. Meanwhile,
look for returning stratus in the form of MVFR ceilings across all
but the ELD/MLU terminals this morning but any lower ceilings should
be brief due to mid to late morning mixing. Any lower ceilings
should be replaced by a descent daytime cu field however. Tight
pressure gradient will remain across our airspace as well with
sustained south winds near 10-16kts with gusts upwards of 25kts at
times, especially across our NE TX terminals. Returning lower
ceilings should prevail just beyond this 24hr TAF package and will
address this with the 12z TAF package.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through this weekend. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  75  89 /   0  20  10  30
MLU  68  88  72  90 /   0  30  10  20
DEQ  69  87  71  86 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  71  90  73  90 /   0  20  20  40
ELD  68  87  71  88 /   0  20  10  20
TYR  73  89  74  89 /   0  20  20  30
GGG  72  90  74  89 /   0  20  20  30
LFK  74  90  76  89 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13