Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

783
FXUS64 KTSA 231544
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
944 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

No changes planned to the forecast today. Just some passing high
clouds and gradually strengthening southerly winds as the surface
ridge slides east. Going forecast leaned toward the warmer side of
the guidance and the 50th %ile of the probabilistic spread, and
see no reason to make much adjustment at this point. Updated
products sent.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 220 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Surface ridging will advance east of the area this morning and
southerly winds will make a return today. As a result, a warming
trend will commence with temperatures rising into the mid-upper
60s this afternoon underneath passing high clouds. Southerly winds
are expected to become breezy, especially across portions of NE
OK, with gusts 20-25 mph this afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Mid/upper-level ridge axis will slide east of the forecast area
this evening and over the MS River Valley by late tonight. A much
milder night is in store tonight with breezy southerly winds
remaining intact through the overnight hours; periodic gusts
between 25-30 mph appear likely as the pressure gradient begins to
tighten. Overnight lows will range from the mid-upper 40s to
lower 50s for most locations.

Breezy and gusty southerly winds and unseasonably warm
temperatures will continue during the daytime Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front that remains forecast to move through the
region Sunday night into Monday. Afternoon high temperatures on
Sunday will rise into the low-mid 70s with winds gusting between
30-40 mph throughout the afternoon. Gusts may be flirting with
Wind Advisory levels north of the I-40 corridor. Unseasonably
cooler temperatures will occur Monday and Tuesday following the
frontal passage, with a light freeze looking likely for most
locations in NE OK and far NW AR Monday night/Tuesday morning.
More seasonable temperatures will return by Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a warm front moves north through the forecast area on
Wednesday morning. Global models are still in agreement the next
cold front will arrive Wednesday afternoon/evening and will bring
in a low chance (20-30%) of rain, mainly Wednesday evening through
Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop below seasonal average
again Thursday and Friday in the wake of the front.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will increase
from the south late morning toward the noon hour today at all
sites except FSM. Wind gusts around 20 kts and LLWS are expected
at the E OK terminals after midnight Saturday night as the low
level jet increases. A low chance of the same occurring
immediately prior to the end of the TAF period exists at the NW
AR sites but the chance is not high enough to include prior to
24/12Z at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  51  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   66  46  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   68  52  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   64  47  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   64  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   64  47  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   66  49  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  48  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
F10   67  51  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  49  75  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22