Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

627
FXUS64 KTSA 160519
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

 - Very cold this morning with wind chills in the teens and single
   digits. Another hard freeze is expected Monday night/Tuesday
   morning.

 - Despite cold afternoon temperatures, low relative humidities
   and breezy northwest winds promote elevated fire weather
   conditions Monday afternoon.

 - Significant warming trend Tuesday through this weekend, with
   well above average temperatures by mid to late week.
   Precipitation unlikely for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Winter decided to pay us a visit again today, with temperatures
starting out this morning in the 20s or upper 10s for much of the
area. Morning wind chills will be even lower, likely in the teens
or single digits, as the northwesterly breeze persists. Despite
mostly sunny skies, temperatures are unlikely to recover much this
afternoon, likely held in the upper 30s/40s. Much drier air will
be in place today as well, leading to min RH values mostly in the
15-25% range. Thus, fire weather will again be a concern for much
of the CWA as northwest winds gust 20-30 mph this afternoon. Winds
decrease by this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Another hard freeze is expected areawide Monday night/Tuesday
morning as high pressure slides east over the region. Southerly
flow will return during the day Tuesday, quickly warming things
back up into the 50s and 60s. With dry air still in place and
winds gusting to 25 mph, fire weather concerns will persist on
Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each day
through the end of the week as SW CONUS ridging intensifies and
expands into the region. By Friday and Saturday, highs in the mid-
upper 80s are forecast, with some locations potentially eclipsing
90 degrees. This is 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time
of year. Most models hint at a frontal intrusion early next week,
likely cooling things off somewhat. Dry weather is probable
over the next several days, and fire weather potential will
continue to be the main concern through the period. Long range
guidance suggests a pattern change may take place by late month...
perhaps opening the door for more active weather and
precipitation chances again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gusty winds continue through Monday though not as strong as the
previous day. Ongoing low clouds across NW AR will erode across
the region by sunrise with mostly clear skies area wide and VFR
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  25  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  24  58  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   43  25  60  45 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  20  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   36  19  53  41 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   35  20  51  43 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   41  23  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   37  20  55  43 /   0   0   0   0
F10   43  24  61  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   44  27  58  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ049-
     053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for ARZ001-002-
     010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07