Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS64 KTSA 241147
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 354 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms today, with locally heavy
   rainfall potential shifting southeast by afternoon.

 - Another dreary, cloudy day expected Christmas Day, with a few
   light showers and/or drizzle possible, especially far eastern
   OK and NW AR.

 - Showers and isolated storms return Thursday into Thursday
   night.

 - Drier, sunnier, and warmer this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing early
this morning except across far southeast Oklahoma where it remains
dry. With time, the precipitation will shift southeast, with rain
ending by afternoon across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Locally
heavy rainfall will remain possible south of Highway 412 into this
morning, with the heavier rainfall axis shifting into southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas by afternoon. Temperatures
today will not climb much, with highs mostly in the low to mid
50s. Areas near the Red River may warm closer to 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

The upper level storm system will be slow to clear the area, so
rain chances will continue through much of tonight and even into
Christmas Day across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
The rain intensity should remain fairly light from early this
evening on. Dense fog potential has lessened some for late tonight
and Christmas morning, and will mainly be confined to areas near
the Kansas border, especially northern Osage county, where the
best chances are for a few breaks in the clouds to develop.
Elsewhere, low stratus and some light fog will continue through
much of Christmas Day.

The next storm system will bring another round of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday evening. The latest
data has once again trended stronger and south with this
system...much like the ECMWF from 48 hours ago. This will likely
keep the main potential for strong to severe storms just south of
our area, with locally heavy rainfall the main concern in our
forecast area. This will continue to be monitored over the next
couple days.

Yet another upper level storm system follows quickly on the heels
of this one, but with limited moisture, the impacts look to also
be limited, with the NBM pops looking good for now mainly in the
Friday night time frame.

Diurnal temperature ranges will remain quite small through Friday,
but with sunshine finally expected over the weekend, warmer
daytime highs and cooler overnight lows will occur. Temperatures
overall will run well above the seasonal averages until the
passage of a cold front about one week from now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

LIFR/IFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast
period for all sites. Cigs may briefly improve into low-end MVFR
category across NE OK sites this afternoon... but LIFR/IFR cigs/
vsbys are expected to redevelop by late evening/ overnight
areawide. Widespread rain showers with occasional isolated
lightning will persist this morning, gradually shifting east by
this afternoon. MLC & FSM have the highest potential for
lightning this morning, but did not mention in TAFs at this time
due to low probability. Any precip is expected to remain
restricted to SE OK & NW AR by late afternoon/ evening. Light
showers or drizzle may persist through the end of the forecast
period across SE OK & NW AR. Winds remain light through the period
out of the northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  41  51  47 /  90  10  10  10
FSM   53  47  56  49 / 100  60  30  10
MLC   56  45  55  49 /  90  50  10  10
BVO   50  38  50  45 /  70  10   0  10
FYV   53  44  55  47 / 100  40  30  10
BYV   49  43  53  47 / 100  40  30  10
MKO   53  45  53  48 / 100  30  10  10
MIO   51  41  51  47 /  90  10  10  10
F10   54  44  52  48 /  90  20  10  10
HHW   60  50  57  51 / 100  70  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43