Farmington, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Farmington AR
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Farmington AR
Issued by: National Weather Service Tulsa, OK |
Updated: 11:50 pm CDT Sep 20, 2024 |
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Overnight
Partly Cloudy
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Saturday
Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Saturday Night
Slight Chance T-storms then Slight Chance Showers
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Sunday
Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers
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Sunday Night
Chance Showers
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Monday
Chance Showers
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Monday Night
Partly Cloudy
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Tuesday
Mostly Sunny
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Tuesday Night
Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers
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Lo 73 °F |
Hi 94 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 64 °F |
Hi 75 °F |
Lo 56 °F |
Hi 77 °F |
Lo 56 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind around 5 mph. |
Saturday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 94. South wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Saturday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 5 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Monday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. West wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Monday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Tuesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. |
Tuesday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Wednesday
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A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the morning. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 55. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Thursday
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Sunny, with a high near 78. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the morning. |
Thursday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Friday
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A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Farmington AR.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
007
FXUS64 KTSA 210449
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Some earlier, isolated convection was noted over the terrain areas
of western AR and southeast OK, but has since dissipated. An
outflow boundary associated with a cluster of storms moving across
southern KS may eventually flirt with areas along the border
resulting in continued non-zero chance of a shower there
overnight. Otherwise expectation is for the upper ridge to hold
firm overnight and keep any notable activity well to the north.
Thus the current forecast of a slight chance along OK/KS border
looks reasonable, with very warm overnight lows for the time of
year.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Latest surface analysis from the region shows a weak/diffused
frontal boundary hovering just north of the KS/OK border. Daytime
heating helped initiate elevated convection earlier this morning in
far northeast OK, near the KS border, which dropped anywhere from
a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch of rain.
Additional convection development remains possible (10-20%) across
the far northern tier of the forecast area, including portions of
northwest AR, late this afternoon into early this evening as the
weak frontal boundary continues to lift northward. However, the
lingering cloud cover and convection may inhibit this development.
Nevertheless, if storms are able to develop, coverage and
intensity of the storms should be considerably lower than what
occurred yesterday afternoon/evening.
Forecast temperatures thus far today havent really materialized
north of the I-40 corridor due to the aforementioned
showers/storms from earlier as well as thick mid/upper level cloud
cover that has stuck around. Was confident enough to drop the
Heat Advisory from Pawnee, Osage, Washington, Nowata, and Craig
counties in OK as heat indices should remain just at or below
advisory criteria (<105F) through the rest of the afternoon. Have
maintained the rest of the Heat Advisory through 8 PM this
evening. For this evening and overnight tonight, plan for another
unseasonably warm/sultry night with overnight lows ranging from
the mid-upper 70s for most locations; temperatures will be about
15 degrees above average for late September.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Potent mid/upper-level ridging over the Plains will hold strong
through Saturday before weakening and shifting southward on Sunday
as an upper-level trough ejects off the Rockies. Although
temperatures are forecast to soar into the mid-upper 90s to near
100F in spots again on Saturday afternoon, dewpoint temperatures
are not expected to be quite as high. These lower dewpoints should
keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria for the most part,
though criteria might be reached for a couple of hours for some
locations (Tulsa metro, AR River Valley). Will forgo issuing
another Heat Advisory for now, but conditions and guidance will
continue to be reevaluated over the next 12 hours.
Cooler temperatures are forecast to begin on Sunday as a modest
autumn-like cold front approaches from the north. Although the
frontal boundary is expected to arrive during the afternoon and
evening hours on Sunday, thick cloud cover ahead of the
approaching front will keep temperatures cooler than previous days
with afternoon temperatures still reaching the low-mid 90s
(perhaps upper 80s along the OK/KS border). Additionally, shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase along and ahead of the
front on Sunday. Despite decent shear and low-level moisture in
place as the front approaches, lapse rates and instability look to
be marginal at this time, though sufficient enough to produce a
few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Best support for
strong/severe storms will be along and north of the I-44 corridor
during the afternoon and evening, ahead of the advancing cold
front. The main hazards with any organized thunderstorm activity
will be damaging wind gusts, small hail, and locally heavy
rainfall that may lead to flooding.
The cold front will push through the forecast area by late Sunday
night or Monday morning and will result in unseasonably cool
temperatures through the middle part of next week. Precipitation
chances may linger behind the front through at least Monday
morning, drying out west-to-east through the daytime. Another
opportunity for showers and isolated thunderstorms will arrive
late Tuesday into Wednesday as the aforementioned trough
axis/upper low swings through and east of the forecast area,
though global models/ensembles still differ with timing and
location of when this happens. There is even less forecast
confidence on what transpires toward the latter half of the
workweek next week as model synoptic solutions really diverge.
However, consensus in guidance keeps temperatures near seasonal
average through the end of the week.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with ongoing
thunderstorms expected to stay north of both the Kansas and
Missouri borders. Southerly winds will increase mid morning, with
gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range expected at TUL/RVS into the
afternoon. A very low chance of shower and thunderstorm
development affecting mainly BVO toward the end of the TAF period
does exist, but chance is low enough to not include in the current
TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 76 98 75 88 / 10 20 20 50
FSM 75 98 75 93 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 75 98 74 92 / 0 0 10 30
BVO 73 98 70 85 / 10 20 30 70
FYV 73 94 71 88 / 20 20 20 30
BYV 72 92 70 89 / 20 30 20 40
MKO 75 96 74 91 / 0 10 10 30
MIO 74 96 71 87 / 20 20 20 50
F10 74 98 74 91 / 0 10 10 30
HHW 72 97 73 93 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12
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