Conway, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS64 KLZK 150532
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1132 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

An upper ridge and surface high pressure will shift eastward across
the region over the next couple of days. Mostly clear sky conditions
are expected through the end of the week, with cloud cover
increasing by late Saturday, with the return of southwesterly flow.

Conditions are favorable for fog to develop during the overnight to
early morning hours Friday, reducing visibility, mainly across the
eastern half of the state. A frost advisory has been issued for
portions of northwest Arkansas, valid late tonight through early
Friday morning, due to light winds, low-level moisture and near-
freezing temperatures.

Temperatures tonight will dip into the mid to upper 30s to lower 40s
across the state. Low temperatures will be a bit warmer Friday
night, mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s. High temperatures the
next few days will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

At the start of the period H500 ridging will extend from the eastern
Gulf Coast to north of the Great Lakes Region with a deepening
trough across the western US. With the ridge lingering over the
state, dry conditions will be in place and temperatures will be 5-10
degrees above normal Sun-Mon.

By early next week, the western H500 trough will continue slow
progress eastward against the eastern US ridge. It appears a cyclone
will develop at the base of the trough, south of the Four Corners.
From late Sunday into early Tuesday this mid-level low will rapidly
eject northeastward toward the Great Lakes.

At the sfc, a corresponding sfc low will make similar progress with
a trailing cold front moving across the state by Tuesday evening. As
the front begins to move across the state widespread showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms may develop.

Timing of precip appears to be a bit quicker with much of it
expected to take place Monday evening and Monday night. POPs remain
fairly high but QPF isn`t too out of hand. Severe weather threat
remains low with some uncertainty, a potentially high shear/low cape
setup could provide a few storms locally.

Behind the front, mid-level flow will be out of the NW and sfc
ridging will build in from the north. This is expected to provide
much cooler temperatures by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

High pressure both aloft and on the surface will bring widespread
VFR conditions to the terminals through the period. Some patchy
fog will be possible around sunrise for a few locations. Winds
will generally be light with a NE component over eastern AR with
more of a W to SW wind over the west,

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     39  62  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         39  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       38  63  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    41  67  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  43  65  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     43  67  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      37  68  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  37  62  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        39  61  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     40  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   39  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         39  64  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      42  62  43  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Friday for ARZ103-112-121-130-137-
203-212-221-230-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...56