Conway, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

822
FXUS64 KLZK 021140
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

As of 3 AM CDT, current observations indicate a warm front has moved
across the CWA from south to north and winds are now ramping up
across the state out of the south with efficient warming and
moistening at the surface with temperatures and dewpoint
temperatures that have actually increased throughout the night.
Unfortunately, this is creating an appreciable warm sector across
the state of Arkansas which will set the table for a severe weather
outbreak.

A note of change to the overall seriousness of this forecast
discussion is the upgrade of the SPC Day 1 Outlook (Storm Prediction
Center) category to a High Risk (level 5 out of 5) across portions
of east-central and northeastern Arkansas. However, do not become
complacent despite which category occupies your location. Today has
the making of a serious, severe weather outbreak across the entire
state.

For today, all hazards continue to be in play across the entire
state. The risk of very large hail in excess of baseball size or
possibly larger is a real possibility for the entire state of
Arkansas, damaging wind gusts of 60 mph to 80+ mph will be
possible across the central and eastern parts of Arkansas, and
tornadoes (some of which will likely be long-track and violent)
will be possible across the southeastern half of Arkansas;
however, the highest threat for long-track, violent tornadoes will
be across parts of northeastern Arkansas and east-central
Arkansas in the same placement as the overall High Risk outlook
for severe weather.

In the upper lvls, a H500 closed low is moving over of the Central
Plains region of the CONUS sweeping over the Mid-West region of the
CONUS into the day. At the sfc, the aforementioned warm sector is
already beginning to take place setting the table for a severe
weather outbreak across the state in the form of the lifting warm
front and cold front that is on approach to the Natural State via
Oklahoma.

The parameter space at the sfc will be more than supportive of all
modes of severe weather. Latest short-term high resolution guidance
soundings forecast an environment by early Wednesday afternoon that
is progged to be in place with model agreement of SBCAPE between
1,800 J/kg and 3,000+ J/kg (in various locations statewide) and ESRH
(Effective Storm Relative Helicity) between the values of 200
m^2/s^2 and 400+ m^2/s^2 (in various locations statewide). In
addition, hodographs show large sickle-shaped between 0 and 3km
which is evident of super-cellular storm mode which is associated
with all hazards from large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes.

Expect numerous strong to severe thunderstorms across Arkansas
during this afternoon through this evening with the greatest
frequency of strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern two-
thirds of the state including the Little Rock metro area. All modes
of severe weather will be likely throughout the duration of the day
into late this evening with the overall severe threat transitioning
from west to east throughout the day as the cold front begins to
enter the state at the Arkansas/Oklahoma border early this
afternoon.

Today has the necessary ingredients in place to be a
memorable day severe weather outbreak wise which is quite the
declarative statement given the history of severe weather in
Arkansas. It is an absolute must that you remain vigilant today to
quickly changing weather conditions and have a severe weather action
plan in place and the means to activate that plan in a matter of
minutes to protect life.

Into Thursday, the atmosphere will quickly recover and the cold
front that moves into Arkansas will eventually stall during the day
on Wednesday which will setup another convective weather risk during
the day on Thursday. In the upper lvls, a trof will dig across the
Four Corners region of the CONUS and this pattern at H500 is progged
to remain fixated through Sunday before pattern progression evolves
eastward.

On Thursday, all types of severe weather will be once again be
possible, but the greatest confidence remains in the possibility of
large hail across portions of southwestern and central Arkansas.

A second severe weather hazard to mention and that is just as
concerning (probably more) than the convective weather will take
place over this period of today through Sunday will be critical life-
threatening flash flooding as well as river flooding statewide.
Latest WPC (Weather Prediction Center) guidance has outlined several
days in which a moderate risk of excessive rainfall exists over a
large portion of the state between midday and Sunday morning. A
period of more than four days where excessive rainfall is progged to
fall.

Latest high-resolution guidance has a clear, problematic footprint
of rainfall totals from Wednesday through Sunday between 4 to 10+
inches. The highest rainfall totals remain to be placed across
northeastern Arkansas. However, a large part of the CWA and state is
likely to see between 4 and 8 inches of rainfall over this period.

Strong low level flow will be noted with a stout and persistent
low level jet progged to advect moisture into the region between
today and early Sunday is noted in all model guidance.
Additionally, PW values will be unusually high for this time of
the year, forecast between 1.6 and 1.9 inches which is evident of
an extremely moist atmosphere that will be effective at producing
cells which will have high rainfall rates.

Overall, confidence is high regarding this to be a high impact event
for today and Thursday (especially today) for convective severe
weather with all severe weather hazards possible.

Beginning today through early Sunday, numerous rounds of heavy rain
will begin to impact the CWA and state of Arkansas. Flash flooding
and river flooding will become likely beginning today over the next
several days. The Flood Watch that encapsulates this threat is a
Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Flood Watch given the amount
of rainfall forecast to fall in a short period of time. It is a must
if you encounter a water-covered roadway or high water in general to
find another route as the power of the water itself can easily sweep
a vehicle away along with the road surface underneath the water may
be compromised or gone completely. River flooding will likely become
an issue as well. It is absolutely imperative to stay up to date to
the latest NWS forecast with regards to severe weather hazards and
severe hydrologic hazards!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Low level wind shear will be present across all TAF sites for the
first several hours of the forecast period. CIGS will begin the
period lowered ahead of an approaching cold front and likely severe
thunderstorms that will take place later Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening across all sites in MVFR flight category. Surface
wind gusts will be in excess of 35+ knots across all terminals from
Wednesday morning through late Wednesday evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to impact the western and northern terminals between early
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening and transition to
impacting the central and southeastern terminals late Wednesday
afternoon, but remaining through the remainder of the period. VSBY
will drop to MVFR flight category and as low as IFR category at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  59  68  60 / 100  80 100  90
Camden AR         83  66  80  67 /  90  90  90  80
Harrison AR       77  52  63  54 /  90  30  90  60
Hot Springs AR    78  60  71  62 / 100  90 100  90
Little Rock   AR  82  64  71  65 / 100  90 100  90
Monticello AR     84  70  83  71 /  80  80  80  60
Mount Ida AR      77  59  71  61 / 100  90 100  90
Mountain Home AR  77  54  64  55 /  90  30 100  70
Newport AR        82  61  69  61 /  90  90 100  90
Pine Bluff AR     84  66  79  67 /  90  90 100  80
Russellville AR   79  58  69  61 /  90  70 100  90
Searcy AR         82  61  70  62 /  90  90 100  90
Stuttgart AR      82  66  75  67 /  90  90 100  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday morning
for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-
062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ008-016-017-025-
033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74