Conway, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

679
FXUS64 KLZK 122254
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
554 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

 - Overall pattern remains unsettled through the weekend with
   periods of showers and thunderstorms.

- Several inches of rain are expected across the county warning
  area including areas that have already seen heavy rain, leading
  to a slight expansion of the flash flood watch.

- Summer heat and humidity return next week with heat index values
  close to 100 in spots and possible heat related headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

All guidance continues to indicate the very unsettled pattern we
are currently in will continue through the weekend. As such very
few changes have been made to the previous forecast package. Upper
low/trough is currently over eastern Oklahoma and slowly wobbling
off to the north and east. With the system essentially cut off
from the prevailing flow, it will take several days, at least,
for it to finally clear the area.

The position of the low and an upper high parked over the western
Caribbean is keeping a continuously flow of moisture over the
region. PWATS are forecast to be between 1.75 and 2 inches through
the majority of the period along with dew points in excess of 70
for much of the forecast area. Several impulses moving through the
trough will produce waves of precipitation much like what was seen
across the state today. With the amount of rain some parts of the
southwest have already seen, the fact the rain is falling on
saturated ground and the additional QPF expected, the flash flood
watch will be held onto and expanded slightly to the north.

The overall threat of severe weather is low this afternoon but some
of the storms that do develop could produce gusty winds and the
SPC marginal threat looks good.

The upper low/trough combo traverses the AR/MO border but only
makes it to the Mississippi River by Saturday morning. The system
finally pushes off to the east during the day but a final wave
moving through the NW flow will bring one final round of heavier
precipitation to the area. However, several weak waves will still
move across the area through Tuesday morning with at least slight
chance to chance POPs.

Overall, it looks like an additional three to four inches of rain
is expected across central and west central Arkansas with locally
heavier amounts not out the realm of possibility.

Guidance remains consistent in developing ridging towards the
middle part of next week. Summer like conditions are expected to
return with heat index values approaching the century mark in
many areas. heat related headlines are not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The stalled low pressure area over the southern plains will be the
main impacts driver over the next 24 hours. Currently a line of
thunderstorms is moving through eastern Arkansas with some
isolated showers over SW Arkansas under an upper level features.
This feature will continue to move eastward overnight, returning
the potential for showers and thunderstorms over central and
northern Arkansas. The main impacts from these storms will be
lowering of ceilings to MVFR and periods of IFR visibility in
heavy rain. Lightning will be a threat, but will be hit or miss
over the area so VCTS is mostly seen throughout the TAFs. Northern
Arkansas has the best chance to see storms overnight after 6Z.
The on and off again storms will be present for the entire period
as the low pressure system moves through. VCTS was utilized to
show this potential for now, but as we get close to each wave
moving through more Prob30 and Tempo TSRA will likely get added to
the TAFs as certainty increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  82  69  87 /  90  70  60  60
Camden AR         68  86  70  86 /  70  50  60  70
Harrison AR       66  77  66  84 /  90  80  40  30
Hot Springs AR    68  85  69  86 /  70  60  60  50
Little Rock   AR  69  85  71  87 /  90  70  60  60
Monticello AR     71  85  71  86 /  70  70  60  80
Mount Ida AR      67  85  69  87 /  70  70  50  50
Mountain Home AR  67  79  66  85 /  80  70  50  40
Newport AR        70  84  70  87 /  90  70  60  70
Pine Bluff AR     70  86  70  85 /  90  70  60  70
Russellville AR   69  83  69  88 /  90  70  50  50
Searcy AR         69  85  69  87 /  80  60  60  60
Stuttgart AR      71  85  71  85 /  90  70  60  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ARZ042-043-052>055-062-
063-066>068-137-140-141-237-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56
AVIATION...BARHAM