Batesville, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

971
FXUS64 KLZK 131142
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Scattered SHRA continues across the Natural State early this Fri
morning as an upper low centered over NW AR/SW MO/NE OK slowly
drifts NE. This upper low will continue to slowly drift NE into SRN
MO into this afternoon/evening...with additional isolated/scattered
convection expected over much of the CWA. However...the better and
more widespread convection potential has shifted further north and
east as the upper low lifts NE.

By tonight into Sat...the upper low will weaken into a more open
wave...with the shortwave axis dropping SE over NERN AR into
TN...and eventually further east of the region Sat night. This will
then put parts of AR in NW flow aloft...with some disturbances
dropping SE over AR. This energy aloft may trigger more convection
tonight into Sat over central to NERN sections...then another round
potentially forming to the NW of the state Sat night that could head
SE into AR for some portion of the early long term period.
Overall...the SVR threat looks more isolated during the short term
period.

Forecast QPF has dropped and the axis has shifted NE as well...with
QPF ranging from around 0.5 to 1.5 inches over central to NRN
sections through Sat night. Rainfall amounts have decreased in the
current Flood Watch area down to a trace to less than an inch. Given
this decrease in QPF and shift in the more numerous convection
coverage further NE...will likely remove the Flood Watch with this
morning forecast. This doesn`t mean the threat for flash flooding
will decrease completely...but that the threat for widespread heavy
rainfall has decreased for the next couple days. Even so...some
locally heavy rainfall will remain possible...which could result in
isolated flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An unsettled weather pattern is set to continue at times heading
into the long term. Synoptically, NW upper flow should be in place
between a ridge over the Srn Rockies and a trough along and parallel
to the Appalachian`s. At the surface, low pressure should be co-
located beneath the upper trough with a second area of low pressure
invof the Cntrl Plains. Between these two features, surface winds
will be S/SWrly ushering plenty of gulf moisture into the region
through at least Thursday.

A short wave trough is expected to move across the region on Sunday
into Monday within background NW flow. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move across the state these two days. Given
antecedent soil conditions, the threat for flash flooding will need
to be monitored if storms happen to train over the same locations.

Tuesday and Wednesday appear have the least coverage of
precipitation and lowest PoP chances through the week owing to no
notable features moving through the flow during this period of time.
Can not rule out some afternoon diurnal convection although activity
should be sparse in nature.

One more upper level system is progged to sweep across the region
during the first half of the day on Thursday with convection winding
down by evening. While a few storms may become strong to severe
through the period, the threat for organized severe weather appears
low at this time. Gusty winds would be the primary thunderstorm
hazard followed by large hail.

With aforementioned NW flow in place in combination with multiple
systems expected to pass through this flow, the potential of MCS
activity is possible and will need to be closely monitored via hi-
res CAM guidance. If one or more MCS`s develop, the threat for
damaging winds will increase markedly across the state.

High temperatures through Thursday appear to range from the mid 80s
to low/mid 90s with lows generally in the 70s. Heat index values
most days should range from 90 to 100 degrees with the warmest
readings arriving Tuesday through Thursday. Some location may see
heat index values between 100 and 105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR conds were in place this morning due to low
CIGs. Conds are anticipated to improve to prevailing VFR by
afternoon. On/off SHRA/TSRA are expected today with PoPs
decreasing by late afternoon. Winds should be around 10 kts out of
the W/SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  67  86  69 /  80  50  40  10
Camden AR         86  69  87  70 /  40  40  60  20
Harrison AR       75  65  85  67 /  90  40  20  10
Hot Springs AR    85  68  87  70 /  60  50  50  10
Little Rock   AR  84  70  87  72 /  60  60  60  20
Monticello AR     86  71  86  72 /  50  50  70  30
Mount Ida AR      84  68  87  70 /  60  50  40  10
Mountain Home AR  77  65  85  67 /  90  40  30  10
Newport AR        83  70  86  71 /  80  60  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     86  70  84  71 /  40  60  70  20
Russellville AR   80  68  88  71 /  80  50  40  10
Searcy AR         83  67  86  70 /  70  60  50  10
Stuttgart AR      86  71  85  73 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70