Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

427
FXUS65 KFGZ 141718
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1018 AM MST Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing monsoonal moisture and cooler temperatures
continue, with the best chances for thunderstorms through Friday.
Drier and warmer conditions look to gradually return by the start of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure pushes to the east as a weak trough
starts to drop down through California. The southerly flow between
the two features will advect a good amount of moisture into our area
and allow for more scattered to widespread showers to develop today
and again on Friday.

Hi-res models continue to favor areas from the Grand Canyon down
along and south of the Mogollon Rim for convection this afternoon
with increasing chances across the Black Mesa and into the Chuska
Mountains. PWATs look to be between 0.65-0.85" across northern areas
with PWATs peaking between 1.00-1.10" in portions of central AZ.
With this better low-level saturation, giving better confidence to
decent rain rates and wetting rains across the forecast area.
Additionally, gusty outflow winds will be around 35-45 mph and as
these outflows start to push through the region, they will become
the focus for more convection to develop through the afternoon and
into the evening. While lift doesn`t look to be all that robust,
some stronger storms may be able to sustain updrafts a bit better
and could produce some hail. Models are also indicating a MCV
pushing northward tonight, which may keep convection or showers
ongoing through the night. With all of that in mind, the greatest
hazards for today will be gusty winds and an increasing flash flood
threat.

As the high continues to push east on Friday, the trough to our west
starts to lift and flattens out a bit. This will shift the flow from
a southerly direction to more of a southwest to west direction. The
models are still quite robust with the precipitation chances for
Friday, but this shift in the flow may actually bring in some drier
air and could limit convective development, especially across
western areas. Additionally, the MCV pushing northward early on
Friday may result in quite a bit of debris clouds, which could also
limit convection. For now, didn`t make many changes for Friday as
there are still several different factors in play and enough
uncertainty as to not deviate too much from the current forecast.

Heading into the weekend, we see the southwesterly flow become more
established and as a result we will see dry air pushing into the
region. With moisture decreasing, we will also see a gradual
decrease in storms each day. Western areas will dry out first and
then by the time we reach Sunday and Monday, the best chances will
remain across the higher terrain and into eastern Arizona. With the
high off well to our east we will also see an increase in winds and
warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 14/18Z through Friday 15/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA through 03Z then mainly
isolated -SHRA. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds
possible in and around thunderstorms. Outside of storms, Southwest
winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts through 02Z. Expect light
and variable winds overnight around 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 15/18Z through Sunday 17/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Numerous SHRA/TSRA on Friday becoming isolated on
Saturday, mainly over the higher terrain. Brief MVFR conditions
and gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms.
Outside of storms, southwest winds 5-15 kts each day with light
and variable winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Cooler temperatures with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each day with
wetting rains possible. Gusty and erratic outflow winds of 35-45 mph
in and around storms with brief periods of heavy rainfall. Outside
of outflow winds, daytime winds west-southwest 10-20 mph with
terrain driven winds each night.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday with decreasing chances through Monday. Temperatures will
warm each day with minimum afternoon RH values dropping to 10-30% by
Monday. Daytime winds west-southwest 10 to 20 mph each afternoon
with terrain driven winds each night. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff