Sterling, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

442
FXAK68 PAFC 130043
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level low over the Pribilof Islands will cross the Alaska
Peninsula this afternoon and phase with a North Pacific low in the
vicinity of Kodiak. This system will linger in the northern Gulf,
tracking slowly eastward and dissipating near Yakutat by Tuesday
morning.

Snow showers have returned to the northern Gulf coast and drier
conditions are expected for most inland areas through the
remainder of this weekend. From late Sunday to Monday morning
there will be an elevated potential for convective activity over
the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound regions. Cloud to
ground lightning will be possible over water or on land during
rain/snow showers.

Gale to storm force winds are expected to pick up through the
Barren Islands, into Kamishak Bay, and across the southern tip of
the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon, with a brief barrier jet
developing in the northern Gulf early Sunday morning. Strong, near
hurricane force winds are also expected across the ridgeline of
the Kenai and western Chugach Mountains. Several fronts pass
through the region as the lows rotate around each other before
phasing Monday morning. More settled conditions linger Monday
afternoon before the next system arrives from North Pacific
Tuesday afternoon.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

The current Winter Weather Advisories remain in place as two low
pressure systems revolve around each other in the Eastern Bering
and Southwest Alaska mainland, allowing for gusty winds, snowfall,
and blowing snow. The key points to these advisories are as
follows:

- Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Blizzard Warning: Snow and
  blowing snow starting this evening and lasting through Sunday
  morning.
- Pribilof Islands Winter Weather Advisory: Snow and blowing snow
  continuing through Sunday morning.
- Bristol Bay Western Capes Winter Weather Advisory: Snow and
  blowing snow continuing through Sunday morning.
- Southern Alaska Peninsula Winter Weather Advisory: Snow, blowing
  snow, and gusty winds starting tonight and lasting until Sunday
  afternoon.
- Eastern Aleutians Winter Weather Advisory: Snow, blowing snow,
  and gusty winds continuing until Sunday afternoon.

A duo of lows is present in Southwest Alaska. One low is
currently over the Pribilof Islands, while the other sits south of
the Alaska Peninsula. These lows are driving wind speeds and
precipitation chances up in the aforementioned regions as well as
the Eastern Aleutians, Western Bristol Bay, and the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. As time progresses, the lows will meander around each
other in a counterclockwise fashion, essentially swapping
positions and driving up winds and precipitation chances wherever
they move past as they continue to track eastward. By tonight into
Sunday morning, wind speeds and snowfall will increase in the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island, allowing for blizzard
conditions to arrive. Northerly flow will allow precipitation to
remain as snowfall in most places. However, one of the lows will
advect warmer air into Bristol Bay by Sunday afternoon, warming
temperatures above freezing and transitioning snowfall to rain.
Wind speeds will remain high in especially the Alaska Peninsula
and Eastern Aleutians as pressure gradients remain tighter.

By Monday, the duo of lows will have moved eastward into
Southcentral Alaska and merged, allowing for precipitation
chances and wind speeds to diminish. However, cold air advection
will follow as winds remain northerly in the eastern Bering and
the coastal Kuskokwim Delta, allowing for lingering snow showers
in those regions. Come Tuesday, a north Pacific low will track
into the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula regions, allowing
for increased wind speeds and precipitation chances. The low will
drive warmer air into the region, so precipitation will start out
as snow, but will slowly transition to rain by Tuesday afternoon.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wed through Sat)...

The progressive high amplitude pattern across the Alaskan upper
level forecast is expected though the extended periods, aided by
some pretty strong jet support. The main feature is an elongated
upper trough extending from the Arctic through the Bering into the
North Pacific on Wednesday and Thursday, tracking eastward along
the Alaska Peninsula. This trough is expected to weaken as it
moves into the interior of Alaska by the end of next week. In the
wake of this system, expect a new area of high pressure to build
back into western Alaska for next weekend.


The high amplitude of the approaching low will bring high winds
to the Aleutian and AKPEN late next week with moderate to heavy
rain along the coast transitioning to snow in the higher
elevations. As the low moves east, expect the intensity of
precipitation in southcentral Alaska to decrease, but remnant
precipitation will likely continue into the next weekend.

- Baker

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A strong down-Inlet pressure gradient should keep the
Turnagain wind from moving into the terminal this evening, though
northerly winds are likely to develop as a low pressure system
moves south of Kodiak. Strong cross barrier winds should keep
conditions VFR.

&&
$$