Palmer, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXAK68 PAFC 170254
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
554 PM AKST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The pattern for Southcentral remains the same as its been for the
past few weeks; cold, windy, and dry. For today (Tuesday), winds
have calmed down due to the strong Arctic trough moving south into
the Gulf of Alaska. Weaker shortwaves trail behind it, so winds
in the Matanuska Valley and Valdez are expected to be elevated for
today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, gap winds around Kodiak Island
will be be gale force with some spots of storm force winds due to
cold air advection. As for Seward and Valdez, the pressure
gradient remains, so winds will remain gusty for the foreseeable
future with only minute breaks in wind at times. The continued
northerly flow means that dry conditions remain, with occasional
high clouds moving in. Cold air advection and lower winds will
allow temperatures to cool to the single digits across
Southcentral with low spots in the Copper River Basin dropping
below -20F and -30F. Low areas around Mentasta Pass will also be
below -30F.

On Thursday, an upper trough drops from the north. This trough
seems to not be as strong as the previous one and is also further
east. Regardless, winds will increase in response to pressure and
temperature gradients. The Valdez area will see winds gusting to
over 50 mph at times. Thompson Pass could have gusts over 70 mph.
The Matanuska Valley will see a period of gusty winds over 40 mph.
There is a bit of uncertainty with the exact track of the trough
so wind speeds could vary depending on which path it takes. A
short break occurs on Friday in between features. Another
potentially stronger Arctic trough moves in over the weekend,
which will bring yet another round of strong winds to Southcentral
as this pattern persists seemingly evermore. This one is even
more uncertain, so the forecast is expected to change.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS Days 1
through 3...

Key Messages:

- A High Wind Warning continues for Pacific side of the Alaska
  Peninsula through Wednesday morning. Peak wind speeds up to 80
  mph will likely occur tonight.
- Cold apparent temperatures will occur overnight Wednesday
  morning and Thursday morning in the Kuskokwim Valley.
- Precipitation chances increase Thursday for the Kuskokwim Delta
  with 0.5 to 1.5 inches expected. Up to 3 inches near and along
  the northern slopes of the Kuskokwim Mountains.
- Slight, relatively warmer trend begins Thursday through the end
  of the week.

Discussion:

Blocking high pressure continues to stagnate the synoptic pattern
for the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Most of the winds and
precipitation in the forecast will be focused along the ridge
periphery, including the western Aleutians and the southwestern
Alaska coast and Peninsula. Northerly flow over the eastern Bering
Sea and across Southwest Alaska has led to cold, gusty winds. A
reinforcing shortwave trough will strengthen those winds as it
passes through the bays, passes, and terrain gaps of the Alaska
Peninsula tonight through Wednesday morning. Wind gusts in these
areas will range from 65 to 80 mph from this afternoon into
tomorrow morning. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the
communities from False Pass to Chignik. However, the strongest
winds in this warning area are expected from Sand Point to
Chignik. The greatest chance for the highest wind gusts are
expected from late this evening through early tomorrow morning.
Expect scattered showers to accompany the push of this trough
during this time.

Elsewhere, temperatures across the Mainland will remain below
zero as the week progresses with cold air continuing to flow into
the region. Apparent temperatures will likely hover in the 30s
below zero across the Kuskokwim Valley. The next shortwave will
move over the ridge in the northern Bering Sea and will bring
light snow to the Kuskokwim Delta region after midnight early
Thursday morning, then across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula for Thursday evening and Friday. Snow will remain near
the Kuskokwim mountains through Friday. Meanwhile, precipitation
and winds around 25 to 40 mph will linger in the forecast for the
far western Aleutians tonight through Saturday. The flattened
ridge and frontal passage will bring a relatively warmer trend the
temperatures from west to east beginning Thursday through the end
of this week. Temperatures look to rise from the single digits
above zero over the Kuskokwim Valley to the teens in Bristol Bay
and twenties, all above zero for the high temperatures by late
Friday.

Rux

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The weekend begins with a highly amplified pattern. High pressure
centered south of the Aleutian Islands along with low pressure in
the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep gusty gap winds persistent
across the Alaska Peninsula and through the western Gulf. Winds in
general are likely to be weaker than this past weekend and early
this week, with a messier pattern of weaker shortwave troughs
aloft. However, compared to yesterday, models are now keying in
on a shortwave trough diving south across Southcentral Alaska
Saturday into Sunday. This increases the likelihood of another
round of strong winds out of gaps in Southcentral Alaska/along the
north Gulf coast (including the Matanuska Valley wind and Valdez
area).

Temperatures remain below average across Southcentral
Alaska, with the coldest area being the Copper River Basin, where
ambient temperatures will hover in the range of 20 to 40 below
zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will see warmer, somewhat moist
air ride up and over the ridge, bringing increased potential for
precipitation. A series of low pressure systems track up the
coast of Far Eastern Russia toward Western Alaska through early
next week. This increases chances for precipitation in Southwest
Alaska Saturday night into Tuesday. Precipitation is likely to be
mostly snow, though rain is possible along the coast and is
increasingly likely southward along the Alaska Peninsula.
Southcentral Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and downsloped in
northwesterly flow, though chances for some light snow to make it
past the Alaska Range increase on Tuesday as low pressure
potentially tracks into the Gulf from Southwest Alaska.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds
will increase a little overnight.

&&


$$