Mill Bay, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXAK68 PAFC 290028
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...

Cloudy conditions encompass most of Southcentral Alaska this
afternoon. The one exception is Kodiak Island where most of today
has been quite sunny. However, a few mid-level clouds are trying
to sneak in from the southwest. A few lightning strikes occurred
earlier this afternoon to the northwest of Glennallen. Isolated
thunderstorms continue to be possible across northern portions of
the Copper River Basin the rest of this afternoon into the early
evening. A very low chance (10%) exists on Monday afternoon for
portions of the Copper Basin near the Talkeetna Mountains and
again on Tuesday afternoon for the central Copper Basin.
Elsewhere, expect isolated to scattered showers to continue across
Southcentral the rest of today and into Monday.

An upper-level low in the eastern Bering Sea comes ashore of
Southwest Alaska on Monday and moves east and over Southcentral by
Tuesday. This will bring another round of showers to the Copper
Basin, with maybe a few lightning strikes as mentioned previously,
the Mat-Su Valleys, Anchorage, and the northern Kenai Peninsula.
The southern half of the Kenai looks to stay mostly dry. Showers
look to persist in the Copper Basin for Wednesday as the rest of
Southcentral looks dry. However, Kodiak Island will begin to see
more unsettled and showery conditions by Wednesday as another low
in the Bering Sea sends its front eastward and across the island
by Wednesday morning. As of now precipitation looks to remain
light across Kodiak Island for Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Several centers of low pressure moving through the Bering and
Southwest Alaska will continue to promote cloudy, breezier, and
cooler conditions. Southwest Alaska to see a break in thunderstorm
potential through the remainder of the weekend, though much of
the region will likely pick up some light rain as widespread rain
showers move through. A weakening, vertically stacked, low
pressure system will move into the Southwest Alaska coastline
through this evening. By Monday, a robust upper low moving over
Southwest may create just enough elevated lift for isolated
afternoon thunderstorms over the interior Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley. For Tuesday, a slight warm-up for interior Southwest
Alaska as the upper low continues eastward and cloud cover
diminishes behind it. By Wednesday morning, the front of the next
incoming low pressure system will spread light rainfall across the
Southwest coastline, pushing inland through the day.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, expect mildly improving
conditions as the current Bering Sea low exits into Southwest
Alaska. Later this afternoon, a North Pacific low and its front
will approach the Western Aleutians and Bering, bringing
widespread rain and gales across the region. The leading front
will move over Adak by Monday morning, and Unalaska and the
Pribilofs by Monday evening. As the low occludes and moves into
the Bering Sea, expect another surge of 20-30 kt winds for Adak
and Atka for Tuesday on the backside of the low.

-KC/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An active pattern looks to continue for the long term forecast.
Due to many smaller scale features moving in, there is some
uncertainty exactly where they will track. Wednesday will start
with shortwaves and fronts in the Bering causing elevated winds
and rainfall for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland.
Southcentral will see this troughing stretch into the Gulf of
Alaska. This would allow for rainfall, but there is uncertainty
on how quickly the troughing will move into the Gulf of Alaska.
This means that rainfall in Southcentral could be delayed if the
troughing moves in slower. Things become more uncertain Thursday
through Saturday as more features move in. The current thinking is
that a ridge will set up in the Bering by Friday, where it will
remain through Saturday. Meanwhile, a larger low will move into
the Gulf of Alaska, bringing rainfall to the Southwest and
Southcentral Mainlands, including Kodiak Island. As for
thunderstorms, it seems like convective potential will be low
through next week, so storm potential is low for now.

-JAR

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...There is a chance (40 percent) for rain showers to drift
over the terminal this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions are
expected with ceilings dropping below 5000 feet through this
evening. Light southerly winds expected with brief gusts up to 15
to 20 kts.

&&


$$