Meadow Lakes, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

704
FXAK68 PAFC 140556
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
956 PM AKDT Sun Apr 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level low south of Kodiak dips slightly south into the
Gulf, then approaches Prince William Sound and briefly pauses
Monday morning before it continues on toward Yakutat Monday
afternoon. A steep pressure gradient and cold air behind the
surface front are ingredients that signal a brief but very strong,
potentially damaging, wind gusts that are expected to move
through the Anchorage area after midnight. The highest winds are
expected along the Anchorage Hillside and at ridgetop levels
of the surrounding Chugach and Kenai ranges. High winds are also
expected across large portions of the MatSu Valley and Copper
River Basin through the morning hours on Monday. Widespread gales
are expected to develop across the northern Gulf, Cook Inlet, and
Shelikof Strait.

Cold air over the relatively warm water in the Gulf will create
very unstable conditions. Lightning may be even possible over the
northern Gulf and eastern Kenai Peninsula. Moderate to heavy
precipitation will be confined to the coastal areas, with the
possibility of convective showers building on the upslope side of
coastal ranges. Conditions farther inland are expected to remain
drier due to downsloping in areas such as Anchorage and western
Kenai.

As the system continues out of the area to the east, Tuesday
brings more settled conditions. Widespread wind and precipitation
resume with the arrival of the next North Pacific low on Wednesday
morning.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

A complex low stretching from the Gulf of Alaska to southwest of
Kodiak Island has put the Alaska Peninsula and most of the Bering
Sea into cold air advection. Conversely, the northern portion of
the Bristol Bay inland region and to the Kuskokwim Valley is in
warm advection in the southeasterly flow aloft. This contrast in
southwest mainland Alaska can be seen in the temperatures in those
more northern areas rising into the mid 40s to near 50 this
afternoon while farther south along the Bristol Bay coast the
precipitation remained snow. The most impactful snow occurred
along the Alaska Peninsula today with areas from False Pass to
King Cove (including Cold Bay) experienced snow and strong winds
with some blowing snow. These conditions are expected to track
eastward overnight and weaken as they do.

The next system tracks toward the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula Monday night and remains through Wednesday. This storm
is elongating as it moves northward out of the Pacific and where
this elongating low tracks will have a large impact on both winds
and the rain/snow delineation line. There is a bit of model
discrepancy with this low as the EC and Canadian models have the
low tracking farther east than the GFS and NAM. The most likely
track will probably bring some snow and blowing snow to the
eastern ALeutians as the front moves into the region with the
Alaska Peninsula quickly turning to rain. The Unalaska and Akutan
areas are at the crux of this uncertainty with the potential for
another heavy snow and blowing snow event Tuesday night into
Wednesday possible if the low takes a more easterly track. At this
time, a more westerly track is favored so that will change the
precipitation type to rain on Wednesday, but this is the big
feature we are keeping an eye on for the first half of the week.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thu through Sun)...

Models are consistently calling for a large area of low pressure
to move north from the North Pacific next week. This system is
expected to move east along the Aleutians into the AKPEN by
Thursday, before lifting into the interior on Friday, then
weakening as it moves off to the east. This low appears to have a
strong gradient and will likely bring gale force winds to south
central Thursday and Friday, along with significant rainfall to
coastal regions, transitioning to heavy snows at higher
elevations. As the low moves out of south central next weekend,
conditions will improve from west to east across the area, with
only lingering spotty showers for south central moving into the
weekend.

- Baker

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Downslope flow and dry low levels will generally maintain
high ceilings and dry conditions at the terminal this afternoon
and evening. As a cold front approaches from the Gulf this
evening, low level flow will weaken and back toward the northeast,
which could allow some light precipitation to make it over the
mountains. However, at worst this would lead to low end VFR
ceilings and sprinkles.

Much more significantly, strong cold air advection and rapid
pressure rises will arrive in Anchorage around approximately
07Z (give or take an hour), leading to a rapid wind shift from
northerly to southeasterly along with a rapid strengthening of
winds. Forecast confidence is high that gusts reach at least
35 kts, with potential for isolated stronger gusts. The duration
of strongest winds should be short-lived, on the order of an hour
or two. Winds will then diminish and shift back to northerly by
Monday morning.

SEB

&&


$$