Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXAK67 PAJK 161444
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
644 AM AKDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SHORT TERM...A closed upper level low is currently sitting west of
Haida Gwaii and will be moving northwest along the coast of the
panhandle through Monday. The associated deeper trough tipped
negatively overnight, which sent a 1000 mb surface low following
up the coast of the panhandle. Currently, this low is off the
western coast of PoW Island, and the attached gale force front is
bringing increased winds and rain to the southern panhandle. Wind
speeds along the coast will be enhanced by higher pressure along
the coast mountains, increasing wind speeds to near gale or gale
force. Additionally, the cooler air associated with the occluded
front will descend to the surface, resulting in a strong, gusty
jet with wind gusts as high as 45 knots. Therefore, gulf wind
speeds have been raised to gale force (34-40 kts) through the day,
with severe gale force wind gusts possible. Coastal communities
may see land wind gusts up to 30 mph, with strongest speeds
expected between 10 am Monday morning to 5 pm Monday evening. A
band of precipitation is moving north over the panhandle, bringing
light to moderate rain rates for up to 6 hours before
transitioning to possible scattered showers behind the front.
Conditions are set to gradually improve through Monday, with
precipitation looking to lighten up for the southern panhandle as
it reaches the northern panhandle through the morning.
Precipitation should finish for the northern panhandle through the
afternoon with only minimal accumulations expected.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday into next weekend/...
Rain continues for primarily the southern portion of the
panhandle Tuesday before showers move up across the rest of the
panhandle Wednesday into Thursday. These easterly showers are
associated with waves moving around a weak low to the southwest in
the Gulf around 140W. These showers will begin to decrease into
Thursday night as a surface ridge begins to approach the
panhandle, pushing the weakening low to the southeast. This ridge,
accompanied by an upper level ridge building over the Gulf on
Friday, will help to bring drier weather, clearer skies, and some
higher temperatures into this weekend. Models showing 850mb
temperatures of between 10 and 12 degrees C moving into the area
alongside this ridge, which will bring us some warm air advection
that will also aid in bringing temperatures up. This warm air
advection alongside the surface ridging will bring some areas of
the panhandle to over 70 degrees for their highs this weekend,
with the highest temperatures looking to be Saturday afternoon.

Winds are expected to stay light in the majority of the panhandle
midweek, with the exception of winds moving into Clarence Strait
remaining elevated into Wednesday as the low to the southwest
continues to bring southerly winds. Winds look to stay on the
lighter side over the region for late in the week into the
weekend. However, the pressure gradient in the northern panhandle
may tighten as the ridge begins to move in while a low remains
over Canada to the northeast, which may bring some elevated winds
to Lynn Canal on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Predominate VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this
morning with CIGs AoA 4000ft, outside of Yakutat which is seeing
IFR to LIFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 500ft and visbys down
to 1/4SM due to intermittent areas of fog.

Through the rest of the day, anticipating general MVFR to VFR
flight conditions to prevail with CIGS AoB 5000ft and reduced
visbys 3 to SM through the afternoon within heavier precip as a
front pushes into the southern panhandle and overspreads the area.
Main aviation concern through the afternoon will be increasing
LLWS up to 30kts near 2000ft for the southern and coastal TAF
sites, particular Ketchikan, Klawock, and Sitka, through early
Monday morning, decreasing through 00z. Winds for the southern
panhandle TAF sites will increase through the morning and into the
afternoon, with strongest overland winds around 15kts sustained
with gusts up to 25kts likely. For the northern panhandle,
expecting slightly less wind, around 10 to 15kts kts, but can`t
rule out an isolated gust this afternoon up to 20kts as front
pushes through.

Gradual improvement to predominate VFR flight conditions 06z this
evening as front exits the panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside Waters: Wind speeds have been raised in the eastern gulf
to gale force (34-40 kts) through the day, with severe gale force
wind gusts expected in the eastern gulf off the coast of Prince of
Wales and Baranof Islands. Widespread fresh to strong breezes
(17-27 knots) will persist along the coast through midnight. Wave
heights do not look to exceed 11 ft due to lack of sufficient
fetch length and time for more developed seas. Small craft
advisories follow the front offshore up the coast through the day,
with gale warnings persisting through Monday evening.

Inside waters: Strong breezes coming in from Dixon Entrance will
move up Clarence Strait and into Sumner Strait. As the low
continues to move northward near Sitka, inner channel winds will
increase slightly with some areas reaching sustained moderate
breezes. Winds in the central & northern panhandle will switch
southerly as the low tracks further north. Coastal entrances such
as Southern Chatham Strait, Clarence Strait, and Cross Sound may
see fresh to strong sustained breezes with near gale force gusts
when the front passes over through Monday afternoon. These may
also be associated with elevated wave heights of up to 7 ft. There
is a small craft advisory in Chatham Strait that persists through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661>663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....Contino
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK

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