Juneau, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXAK67 PAJK 160007
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 PM AKDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SHORT TERM...Somewhat complicated pattern mainly focusing on the
Monday timeframe. The upper level closed low that has been sitting
to the west of Haida Gwaii will swing around a deeper trough. As
the trough becomes negatively tilted tonight, a developing low
will begin to move up along the coastline of Prince of Wales
Island and up to southwestern Baranof Island. Unfortunately, as of
now, a wide variety of solutions are possible, mainly impacting
the southern half of the panhandle and the outer coast. These
solutions can mainly be clustered into two outcomes: The first
being the low strengthens, then is directed out to the gulf waters
to the west, limiting any impacts and lower wind speeds. The
second is the low will be directed along the gulf coast, resulting
in a stronger LLJ and much higher wind speeds along the coast. At
this time, the more likely solution, at around 70% chance of
occurrence, is the less impactful solution. Regardless of either
solution, however, a band of precipitation looks to move up along
the inner channels, bringing moderate rain rates for up to 6 hours
before transitioning to showers behind the front.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday into next weekend/...
Rain continues for primarily the southern portion of the panhandle
Tuesday before showers move up across the rest of the panhandle
Wednesday into Thursday. These easterly showers are associated
with waves moving around a weak low to the southwest in the Gulf
around 140W. These showers will begin to decrease into Thursday
night as a surface ridge begins to approach the panhandle, pushing
the weakening low to the southeast. This ridge, accompanied by an
upper level ridge building over the Gulf on Friday, will help to
bring drier weather, clearer skies, and some higher temperatures
into this weekend. Models showing 850mb temperatures of between
10 and 12 degrees C moving into the area alongside this ridge,
which will bring us some warm air advection that will also aid in
bringing temperatures up. This warm air advection alongside the
surface ridging will bring some areas of the panhandle to over 70
degrees for their highs this weekend, with the highest
temperatures looking to be Saturday afternoon.

Winds are expected to stay light in the majority of the panhandle
midweek, with the exception of winds moving into Clarence Strait
remaining elevated into Wednesday as the low to the southwest
continues to bring southerly winds. Winds look to stay on the
lighter side over the region for late in the week into the
weekend. However, the pressure gradient in the northern panhandle
may tighten as the ridge begins to move in while a low remains
over Canada to the northeast, which may bring some elevated winds
to Lynn Canal on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Tuesday/...Primarily VFR conditions across
the Panhandle today. Some periodic exceptions may be in the
northern quarter of the Panhandle where some areas of HZ/FU have
been reported from easterly winds blowing in FU from Canadian
wildfires, which may bring VISs down to the upper MVFR flight
category at times. Some isolated-to-scattered showers are
possible for the for northern areas of the Panhandle this
afternoon from some diminishing easterly wave activity. For the
southern Panhandle, a weather system pushes in from the south,
bringing more appreciable rainfall & CIGs & VISs down to well
within the MVFR flight category from this evening through the end
of the 24-hour TAF period. The northern Panhandle will see a break
in the precipitation & some higher CIGs & VISs after any
remaining easterly wave showers depart & before the
aforementioned approaching weather system moves in. LLWS centered
up at around 2 kft of between 25 & 35 kt out of a southeasterly
direction is possible starting around 14Z Monday. Note: LLWS has
been added in the Juneau area TAF this afternoon due to a
combination of a disurbance moving over the area & thermals due to
appreciable afternoon heating taking place.

&&

.MARINE...

Outer Waters: The first, less impactful solution, outlined in the
short term, will see the low shoot out to the gulf waters,
limiting wind speeds in both the outer waters and inside waters.
Strongest wind speeds near the low center maximize around a strong
breeze in the afternoon through early evening time frame.
Elsewhere along the coast from Sitka southward, widespread fresh
to strong breezes (17-27 knots) will persist from the afternoon
through midnight.

For the more impactful system, around a 30% chance of occurrence,
wind speeds along the coast will be enhanced by higher pressure
along the coast mountains, increasing wind speeds to near gale to
gale force. Additionally, cold air wrapping around the developing
system will descend to the surface, resulting in a strong, gusty
jet with wind gusts as high as 45 knots. Regardless of either
solution, wave heights do not look to exceed 10 ft due to lack of
sufficient fetch length and time for more developed seas.

Inside waters: Focusing more on the impactful system as this
solution will impact the inner waters more. Strong breezes coming
in from Dixon Entrance will move up Clarence Strait and into
Sumner Strait. As the low moves northward near Sitka, fresh to
strong breezes in Peril Strait and near Five Finger will develop
and persist for at least 6 hours. Ahead of both the warm front and
cold front, winds in the central & northern panhandle will switch
to northerlies to up to a moderate breeze before switching to
southerly. Lynn Canal in particular is expected to see up to a
fresh breeze southerly wind accompanying the cold front Monday
evening.

As it stands, there is a blend of both the more impactful system
in both the outside and inside waters forecast, with wind speeds slightly
muted in the inside waters. As the more likely solution is less
impactful, consider these wind speeds as the upper end of what is
expected, unless confidence increases on the more impactful
system.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-642-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....Contino
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...NC

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