Juneau, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

605
FXAK67 PAJK 080038
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SHORT TERM....../through Friday night/...
Quick Notes:
-Not much change in the weather in the short term forecast.
-Onshore flow will keep precip and clouds over SE AK
-Very slow decreasing wind speeds over the inner channels.
-Typical SE AK weather for early November.

Details:

500mb low over the gulf will slowly move east while weakening. This
would keep general onshore flow over SE AK. And with no real
pattern change, not expecting much change in the weather. Cloudy
and rainy, some areas of rain/snow mix in the northern panhandle.
Not expecting the rain to be a total washout but the on/off type
of rain.

Overall, typical SE AK weather for early November.


.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Middle of Next Week/...

Quick Notes:
-Showers diminish on Saturday, with some drier weather possible,
 especially in the afternoon and evening and across the northern
 half of the panhandle.
-Low tracks E across the Gulf through weekend, bringing into the
 southern and central panhandle Saturday night through Sunday.
-Windy conditions with front, along with rain. Some snow or rain
 snow mix possible for central panhandle and Icy Strait Corridor.
-Dry weather returns for Monday.
-Weak system possible Tuesday.

The long range forecast starts off with a rare reprieve from the
rain for SE AK. Onshore flow will which had been supporting
continued rain showers will be cut off as a low tracking across
the Gulf from the E causes winds to veer more offshore ahead of
it. This will result in diminishing rain showers Saturday morning
and a potentially dry Saturday afternoon/evening period.
Especially for the northern half of the area. By Saturday night,
chances of rain will rapidly increase, as a strong front advances
from the S into the Gulf Coast and the southern panhandle.
Accompanying the front will be strong winds for land based areas
in the south, gales for the outer coastal waters, and northerly
winds for many of the inner channels which will strengthen to
small craft intensity (largely around 25 kt) by Sunday. The N
winds will result in the potential for some snow in the central
panhandle, alongside the more typical rainfall which will fall
across the south. The big question with regards to snow totals
will be just how far N the front is able to advance - a front
which stays further S will have trouble initiating an undercutting
event while a front which moves further N may bring sufficient
moisture to bring minor snow accumulations to some areas -
including the Icy Strait Corridor. For the time being, think that
the front`s distance from its parent low, accompanied by
lackluster moisture in the N half of the area, should prevent any
significant snow accumulation, but the situation will need to be
watched closely, as the potential for the situation to
significantly move towards a more (or less) wintry mix does exist.

Monday will bring with it better news - as the low moves off to
the SE, it will bring the by now decaying front with it. While
some chances of rain may linger for the southern panhandle,
expect the northern panhandle to largely dry out. A weak system
may move in from the NW on Tuesday potentially bringing snow to
parts of the area. Not too far behind it, a stronger system
racing E across the Gulf could sideswipe the southern half of the
panhandle Wednesday into Thursday.

The main changes to the forecast were to lift the Sunday frontal
system a little further North, and to add detail to anticipated
cooler temperatures from competing N outflow winds as a result.


&&

.AVIATION...A low anchored in the western gulf will continue to
bring onshore flow and showers to the panhandle Thursday night
into Friday. With the primary front continuing to push up through
Lynn Canal, winds have shifted to predominantly southerly through
the inner channels with significant LLWS no longer a concern.
Skagway and Haines are the last holdouts in terms of snow or mixed
precipitation Thursday afternoon with CIGs of 1500 ft or less,
but a transition to mostly rain is expected by the late
afternoon/early evening. Otherwise cloud cover has lifted a bit
and become more broken with the transition to showers. Expect VFR
with drops to MVFR conditions during showers for a majority of
the panhandle for the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms across the
Outer Gulf Coast as of Thursday afternoon may try to move inland
through the evening hours on Friday, though these will be
scattered in nature.

&&

.MARINE...Because not much change is expected in the surface
pressure pattern, the overall wind and waves won`t see much change
over the next 24 hours. Still expecting waves in the gulf to be
upwards of 20 feet and wind around 20 to 30 kts from the south to
southwesterly direction.

Inner channels winds will be generally from the south. Wind speeds
will slowly decrease but not till tomorrow. Through tonight,
expected wind speeds are around 15 to 25 knots. Friday, we`ll see
speeds more around 10 to 20 kts with wind speeds decreasing into
Friday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-034>036-053-641>644-
     651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...GJS

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