Farmers Loop, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

263
FXAK69 PAFG 122247
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
147 PM AKST Tue Nov 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow continues across parts of the region in response to a
weak disturbance over the central interior and a warm front
lifting from the Bearing towards the west coast. Snowfall across
the interior will wind down tonight with generally light
accumulations while snow showers along the west coast will persist
into Wednesday before diminishing. For the latter part of the
week attention will turn towards yet another surface low moving
out of the north Pacific and into the Bearing. This system is a
bit more complex but should arrive along the YK Delta coast
Thursday night where it will linger for a while. This will result
in additional snow for the lower Yukon Delta as well as parts of
the western interior. As this system evolves additional snowfall
will move into the rest of the interior. This represents a period
of more active weather, however impacts should not be all that
great aside from somewhat heavier snow across the southwest and an
increase in offshore wind speeds Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Central and Eastern Interior Key Messages...
- The main story this week will be cold temperatures. Clearing skies
and building surface ridging allows for localized lows below -20F
tonight through Thursday night.
-Light snow gradually ends across the SE Interior this evening with up to an inch of additional snowfall.
- Another more widespread round of light snow is increasingly likely
for this weekend, followed by even colder temperatures (locally
colder than -25F) early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Decreasing winds and increasing sea ice coverage should combine to
limit cloud cover, allowing for much colder temperatures across much
of the North Slope Wednesday into Thursday.
- Winds become more northeasterly and increase for Thursday-Saturday
allowing for sea effect snow showers and somewhat warmer temps.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Below normal temperatures develop across the interior tonight and
spread across the west coast Wednesday night through the end of the
forecast period.
- Several periods of light to moderate snowfall from the Seward
Peninsula southward with 3-day totals of 4-9 inches possible
through Thursday night. The largest amounts should be south of
the Yukon River.

Upper troughing across much of the state of Alaska continues to
deliver chilly conditions. Meanwhile at the surface not much has
changed with low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and an Arctic high
anchored northwest of the state. Light snow has lingered across
portions of the interior associated with a weak upper disturbance
and another area of more concentrated light snow along a weak warm
front near the southwest coast. Both of these features will
continue to weaken as we progress into Wednesday at which time
weak ridging aloft briefly builds into the southern part of the
state. It is also at this time that colder and drier air
infiltrates the area, leading to the coldest temps of the season
so far.

Attention will quickly turn back towards the Bearing late
Wednesday and Thursday as another fairly strong low arrives from
the southwest. Models are still having a difficult time deciding
on what to eventually do with this surface feature. After looking
at ensemble means as well as deterministic solutions, decided to
take a middle of the road approach and favor the NAM for this
forecast package. This solution generally has the low stalling
over the lower YK Delta Thursday into Friday while a trailing low
will pivot into the Alaskan Peninsula and northern Gulf. The
implication of this is that additional snow will fall over the YK
Delta and lower Yukon with several inches possible late in the
week (however still likely below any warning criteria for the
area). Snow will also begin to over spread the interior with
somewhat more widespread coverage.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
Upper flow will start to become more amplified with deeper
troughing over Alaska through the period that will lead to
another shot of very cold air moving into the region as surface
high pressure dominates northern Alaska. Meanwhile, the active
north Pacific storm track will begin to shift further south.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-810.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-857>859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
&&

$$

Laney