Fairbanks, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

223
FXAK68 PAFC 250036
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Thursday night)...

A long-wave trough remains over the Bering this afternoon with
its axis extending into the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure southeast of Kodiak
Island is tracking slowly eastward into the southern Gulf. This
feature will turn northward during the overnight hours tonight and
push into Southcentral as a strengthening shortwave trough on
Wednesday. The ever present ridge of high pressure over the Yukon
and eastern Alaska should then redirect the trough north and
northwest into Fairbanks through Thursday morning.

For the rest of today, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will
allow for some warming from the MatSu into the Copper River Basin.
A small area of clearing earlier in the day may support an
isolated wet thunderstorm or two from south and southeast of
Cantwell to Mendeltna through this evening. The expectation is for
gap winds to marginally increase this evening as coastal ridging
ahead of the trough develops. Current winds in Anchorage are light
and largely variable. There is the expectation that the Turnagain
Arm wind will strengthen this evening though recent model
guidance suggests winds may remain out of the west through
tonight. IN addition, subtle easterly waves closer to the Alaska
Range will support showers over the Talkeetnas tonight, with
additional showers possible from the Wrangells, northward.

As has been advertised the past couple of days, Wednesday`s
shortwave trough lifting through Southcentral will be the main
weather feature through the short term. Regardless of the exact
track of the trough, numerous rain showers are likely to develop
over the eastern half of Southcentral, from Prince William Sound
into the Copper River Basin. The expected northwest turn in the
trough`s track on Wednesday should then see precipitation chances
expand westward into northern portions of the Susitna Valley late
in the day. Persistent southerly flow into the coast will maintain
additional showers from the Kenai Peninsula into the Sound.
Precipitation finally clears out of southcentral Thursday morning
as the trough departs the region and high pressure temporarily
builds in from the east.

-BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday evening)...

The forecast is on track, with a weakening surface trough sitting
underneath an upper-level trough axis situated along the Southwest
Alaska coast this afternoon. Southeasterly flow ahead of the
trough is ushering in moisture, with lift along the trough axis
resulting in bands of showers from Bristol Bay north into the
Kuskokwim Delta. A few scattered showers are also popping up
across the Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon. With breaks in the
cloud cover and slightly warmer temperatures across the valley
this afternoon, there is some potential for one of these showers
to produce a lightning strike or two before they track into the
Interior later tonight. Elsewhere, steadier rain is falling across
the AKPen and eastern Aleutians with widespread low stratus and
fog across much of the Bering and western Aleutians.

As the Bering front pushes up toward the Southwest coast,
southeasterly winds increase for Southwest Alaska, particularly
out of Kamishak Gap. Southeasterly winds gust as high as 30 mph
through the favored gap through Wednesday. The front looks to
remain mostly offshore and steady rainfall remains confined to the
Alaska Peninsula. Expect increasing breaks of sun with increasing
temperatures in the interior Kuskokwim Delta and parts of the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley through Wednesday. Beyond that point, the
shortwave currently bringing shower activity to Bristol Bay will
have exited to the Gulf of Alaska, lifted across Southcentral, and
begun rotating back westward between the Bering low and high
pressure along the Arctic coast. This easterly wave will bring
potential for more steady, wetting rain in the Wednesday evening
to Thursday night timeframe, though the timing and track still
remains a bit uncertain at this time. The best likelihood of
rainfall looks to be along the northern portions of the Kuskokwim
Valley and Delta.

Offshore flow bringing warm air from the Interior could raise
temperatures to near 70 for some locations, but it will depend on
the track of the easterly wave. Wherever the wave sets up,
temperatures will remain depressed due to precipitation, but areas
to the west of the wave may see warmer and drier conditions
temporarily. The Bering low tracks into the Gulf for Thursday,
with high pressure moving in to replace it over the
western/central Bering. Ahead of the ridge axis, northerly flow
brings cooler air aloft which could help to destabilize the
environment and alleviate some of the stratus and fog for portions
of the Bering Sea.

-CQ/TM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The overall weather pattern across the Alaska region continues
with little changes through the forecast period. On the upper
level map, a closed low meanders around the Central Gulf of Alaska
with little change in strength into the new week. A number of
shortwaves ripple through the entire forecast area, maintaining
the Gulf low and helping establish a new trough over the Western
Bering by Tuesday. Forecast guidance is mostly carried by GFS and
ECMWF through the beginning of the week, with the Canadian models
deviating most over the Bering towards the end of the forecast.

Showers across the Southern Interior will continue through
Tuesday. Chances of thunderstorms retreat to the Eastern Interior
nearer the Canadian border. A decaying surface low looping over
the Central Gulf extends a front along the Southcentral Coasts
from the Central Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island across to the
Canadian border. Repeated rounds of locally moderate rain and
breezy conditions are expected along coastal mountains. Over the
Far West, an East Asian low and front push across the Aleutians
with locally moderate rain through Monday before curving back into
the North Pacific for Tuesday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Weak up Inlet flow will transition to a Turnagain wind as
a surface ridge takes shape ahead of a front moving into the
southwest Gulf late this afternoon through this evening. The time
of winds shifting from west to southwest to south-southeast and
become gusty is always tricky. With extensive cloud cover, it
won`t get really warm inland which may inhibit the Turnagain Wind
from coming in. A stronger coastal ridge will build tomorrow,
leading to higher confidence of Turnagain winds with gusts up to
30 kts late in the TAF period.

&&

$$