Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXAK69 PAFG 231437
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
537 AM AKST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Northerly winds through the Bering Strait will continue to exceed
50 mph today and remain strong through Wednesday morning. An
extended period of snow in the Northern Interior will extend
across the Western Interior and E Arctic Coast today and Tuesday
with the highest totals in the N Western Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Winds along the Dalton Highway Summits today will have gusts as
  high as 45 to 50 mph and continue to blow 20 to 30 mph through
  Tuesday afternoon. Blowing snow will reduce visibility to 1/2
  mile or less at times. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
  effect until Tuesday afternoon.

- An extended period of snow in the N Interior will bring 2 to 4
  inches of snow for areas north of the line from Tanana to Eagle
  through Monday. On Wednesday, areas west of the Dalton Highway
  can expect 4 to 7 more inches of snow with another 2 to 3 inches
  on Thursday. A Winter Storm Warning will will be in effect for
  areas west of Bettles from Monday evening through Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Winds through the Alaska Range passes will gust as high as 55
  mph this evening. Total snow amounts on the north side of the
  Alaska Range are expected to be 3 inches or less. A Winter
  Weather Advisory will be in effect for the N Alaska Range from
  noon Monday to noon Tuesday.

- High temperatures in parts of the Interior will remain in the
  teens today through Tuesday. The Yukon Flats will see highs near
  or above zero during this period before a cooling trend begins.


West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northerly winds with gusts up to 70 mph near St. Lawrence Island
  will blow through the Bering Strait today. Wind will continue to
  gust greater than 50 mph through the early week, then start to
  weaken Tuesday night into Wednesday. A High Wind Warning is
  in effect for the W Seward Peninsula Coast and St. Lawrence
  Island until Tuesday night.

- A widespread and long-lasting period of snow will impact the
  Western Interior and S West Coast. The heaviest band of snow
  looks like it will bring 6 to 12 inches of snow to the area
  between Kaltag to Shungnak to Bettles, from Monday morning to
  Wednesday morning. 3 to 6 inches of snow are expected during
  this time period for most other areas except the W Seward
  Peninsula and W Brooks Range which will get little to nothing. A
  Winter Storm Warning will be in effect

- Tuesday into Wednesday, the combination of strong winds and
  falling snow along the Norton Sound and YK Delta coasts could
  lead to reductions in visibility to 1/2 mile. A Winter Weather
  Advisory will be in effect from Tuesday to Wednesday afternoon.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Northeasterly winds along the Western Arctic Coast near Point
  Hope will reach speeds near 35 mph today with gusts near 50 mph
  this morning. These winds will diminish to 20 to 30 mph through
  the day today and continue to gradually weaken through the
  week.

- A band of light snow will spread north and west across the
  Brooks Range on Monday, reaching the E North Slope and Arctic
  Coast Monday night before slowly pushing west and lingering over
  the Central and Eastern North Slope and Arctic Coast through the
  middle of the week. 2 to 4 inches are expected over the duration
  with 6 to 10 inches in the Brooks Range.

- Northerly gap winds in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass will get up to
  35 mph with gusts near 50 mph today. Blowing snow will reduce
  visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times. A Winter Weather
  Advisory is in effect through Wednesday morning.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
At 500 mb, a 534 dam high persists over eastern Siberia and high
pressure sits over Canada as a 510 dam low is spread over the
Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island. An arctic trough will begin to
deepen over the W Arctic Coast today. These areas of high and low
pressure are creating a deformation zone stretching from Norton
Sound to the Yukon Flats. Tonight, light snow will fall mainly in
the N Interior. However, as the trough over the Arctic Coast
deepens, the area of snow will stretch diagonally across the state
from the YK Delta to the E Arctic Coast. Although some models
pushed snow west over the Seward Peninsula, confidence in the
positioning of the heaviest bands of snow associated with this
deformation zone is good, with the greatest snowfall occuring
along an arctic front stretching from Kaltag to Bettles. However,
there is some possibility this front ends up slightly farther
west, in which case parts of the West Coast and Seward Peninsula could
see impacts due to blowing snow. The trough over the W Arctic
Coast will continue to deepen through the middle of the week as
low pressure over the pole drops south towards Siberia, causing
the area of snow to become oriented more north/south across the
Western Interior.

At the surface, the gradient between a 1026 mb high in E Siberia
and a 967 mb low over the Alaska Peninsula remains packed across the
Bering Strait. This pressure gradient and the resulting winds
will remain strong until another low in the N Pacific moves east
South of the Aleutians on Tuesday and continues into the Gulf of
Alaska on Wednesday night. High pressure over Canada is creating
a gradient over the Interior that will persist through the day and
begin to weaken on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a series of lows move
north in the Gulf of Alaska result in fluctuating winds through
the Alaska Range passes through Wednesday.

Extended Forecast...
A broad band of precipitation will stretch over the Western
Interior and up to the Arctic Coast and may cause blowing snow
along the Norton Sound and YK Delta coasts together with the
stronger winds in those areas causing blowing snow and reducing
visibility. The band of snow will weaken as it hovers over the
Interior, eventually being pushed east by an arctic trough forming
along the West Coast. This arctic trough will cause temperatures
across the state to drop next weekend. Models have backed off
somewhat on the strength of the trough, but temperatures as low
as -40 F in the Western Interior and North Slope are still
possible next weekend, with temperatures in the -20 to -30 range
across the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ847>850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ812-832.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ819-828.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-825.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ831.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-805-809-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-810-816-851-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810-816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$