Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

461
FXAK69 PAFG 112052 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1237 PM AKDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming continues over the Interior into this weekend while the
West Coast remains cooler and wet with periods of rain and wind.
Warming will also commence over the Arctic where a flood watch has
been issued for rivers draining the Brooks Range due to rapid
snowmelt and possible ice jams.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warming temps into the upper 70s by late week and 80s by the
  weekend.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances over the SE Interior, Fortymile,
  and Yukon-Tanana Uplands.

- Haze will be possible due to infiltration of wildfire smoke
  from Canada.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Periods of rain over the West Coast, with the next significant
  slug of rainfall coming on Thu night and Fri with up to 0.5 to
  1.00 inches over the S Seward Peninsula, YK Delta, and Bering
  Strait.

- Gale force winds for The Bering Strait Coast weaken slightly to
  less than 30 mph Thu. South winds will be blustery over the
  Interior gusting to 20 mph through the week.

- Temps are warming over the Interior into the 70s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- South winds will increase over the W Arctic as fronts move north
  into the Chukchi, with gusts to 40 mph at Point Hope and 30 mph
  from Point Lay westward.

- Light rainfall will occur over the far W Arctic Coast with
  increasing chances coming on Fri and Sat from Utqiagvik west.

- Warming temps and mostly sunny skies are expected for the E
  Arctic as temps warm into the 50s along the coast and 60s over
  the plains.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
There is a 545 remnant arctic low over the E Gulf of AK. There is
a 546 high aloft building over the E Arctic Coast and E Brooks
Range. There is a broad trough with south flow over the West Coast
with light rainfall and blustery south winds. A subtle shortwave
trough emanating from the Gulf low is supporting showers and
isolated thunder to the SE Interior/Yukon-Tanana Uplands.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temps will continue to warm through the weekend, likely peaking on
Sun as the ridge closes off over the N Mainland. Expect high temps
into the mid 80s with minimum RH into the upper teens. Isolated
wet thunder will be possible over the SE Interior and
Fortymile/Yukon-Tanana Uplands today and Thu and will expand north
Fri. More significant thunderstorm chances are possible Sun and
Mon along the periphery of the upper high, especially S Interior and
into the W Interior. Out west, it will remain windy, rainy, and
moist along the Coast through Fri with drying conditions Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch has been issued for the potential for snowmelt and
ice jam flooding along the larger rivers draining the Brooks
Range, beginning Fri and lasting into Mon as temps rapidly warm.
The Sag River is projected to move into a 25 year or higher
return interval river stage by Sat lasting into Mon. All rivers
draining the Brooks Range are susceptible to flooding given the
expected rapid snowmelt along with higher than normal SWE/liquid
in the snowpack. Elsewhere, there are no concerns.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The global suite of numerical weather models from Germany (ICON),
the UK (UKMET), the United States (GFS-FV3), the European
consortium (ECMWF), and Canada (Canadian GDPS) and their
respective ensembles and AI/ML models, are clustered fairly well
through day 6 before the models rapidly diverge with what happens
with a strong high over the Mainland of AK. To start, with a
projected 572 dam blocking high over the N Mainland, Sunday looks
to be one of the hotter days for most of the Interior as temps
shoot up into the mid 80s. Even the Arctic will get in on the
warming as temps soar into the 60s. Eventually, the blocking high
will break down as easterly flow breaks the ridge down from the
south, which will introduce strong thunderstorm potential across
parts of the S Interior and W interior Sunday and Monday and
possibly Tue. Temps remain warm but will slowly fall from the high
on Sun.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ804>806-808-810.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-850-851-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher