Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

112
FXAK69 PAFG 092141
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
141 PM AKDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Pattern change begins today with building pressure and rising
temperatures through the week. Interior highs reach the 70s
Wednesday and Thursday with good chances of hitting 80 in the
valleys this weekend. The North Slope sees highs rise to near 50
by Wednesday and to near 60 this weekend accelerating snowmelt and
breakup. Southerly winds and showers return to the West Coast
Tuesday and last through the end of the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

-Temperatures warm through the end of the week with valley highs
 in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday rising to near 70 Wednesday
 and into the upper 70s to low 80s this weekend.

-Showers continue in the Yukon Flats and Eastern Brooks Range
 through Monday. Isolated showers possible Tuesday afternoon.

-Isolated thunderstorms possible amongst scattered showers each
 afternoon in the far southeastern Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Temperatures warm through the end of the week. Coastal highs in
 the upper 40s to near 50 Monday increase to the low to mid 50s
 Wednesday and to near 60 this weekend. Western Interior highs
 near 60 today increase to the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday and
 to near 70 this weekend.

-Rain showers return to the West Coast Monday night into Tuesday
 and remain through the end of the week. The heaviest showers will
 be along the southern Seward Peninsula and Chuckchi Sea Coast.

-Winds shift southerly late Monday and strengthen Tuesday.
 Southerly winds through the Bering Strait up to 35 mph and 15 to
 25 mph elsewhere. These will last through the end of the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-Temperatures warm through the end of the week. Highs in the mid
 to upper 30s Monday rise to the mid 40s Wednesday and to the low
 50s this weekend. Southern location nearer the Brooks Range could
 see highs near 60 this weekend.

-Snowmelt increases greatly this week as temperatures rise. Snow
 levels reach around 5000 feet Wednesday. Breakup is very likely
 to begin this week.

-South to southwesterly winds persist through the week. These will
 strengthen to 15 to 25 mph late Tuesday and help keep low clouds
 and fog offshore.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 545 dam upper level low over South Central Alaska continues to
move south into the Gulf of Alaska, reaching the Gulf early
Tuesday morning. Higher pressure builds into Northern Alaska as
the low moves south allowing a ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea
to move through the West Coast and set up over the Interior and
North Slope. Ridging continues to build through the week in the
Interior which supports a strong warming trend with Interior highs
reaching near 80F this weekend. Two additional lows move into the
Western Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday increasing southerly flow
through the Bering Strait and allowing for heavy rain showers
along the West Coast, particularly along south facing shores.

Models are in good agreement on the overall pattern through Friday
morning. This means that confidence is very high for the building
ridge and strong warming trend through the end of the week. After
Friday models begin to diverge in their solutions limiting
confidence. Ridging is still likely in the Interior, but details
around the ridge become very fuzzy. The low in the Bering will,
most likely, move southeast over the Alaska Peninsula early next
week and begin to push back against the ridge. Models completely
differ on how to handle the low in the Gulf of Alaska during this
period with the Canadian and GFS showing the low retrograde
towards the Alaska Peninsula, and the ECMWF showing the low moving
even further south. If the former then the low over the Alaska
Peninsula will grow stronger and be more likely to push out the
ridge. If the latter, then the ridge will more likely persist into
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Major pattern chance imminent as a ridge builds over the Interior
through the weekend. Temperatures rise with Interior highs in the
70s by mid-week and near 80 this weekend. Minimum RHs fall into
the 20s and 30s across most of the area Tuesday and remain low
through the remainder of the week. The exception being the West
Coast where southerly flow will bring heavy rain showers to
south facing shores and lighter rain showers to the rest of the
West Coast. Isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon in the
Upper Tanana Valley and southern portions of the Fortymile
Country, but the weaker signals suggest that storms will be quite
isolated. Thursday shows a higher potential for thunderstorms
across more of the Eastern Interior, but still keeps storms east
of Fairbanks and south of Fort Yukon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The only breakup concern remaining is the Sag River. Temperatures
return to normal Monday and increase rapidly through the end of
the week with temperatures reaching into the 50s in the Sag Basin
Wednesday and the mid 50s to near 60 this weekend. This will
massively increase snowmelt and should be enough to finally get
breakup started up there, and we`ll be monitoring conditions as
they evolve along with the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A major pattern shift starting in the short term continues into
the extended forecast period. A ridge builds over the Eastern
Interior and brings high temperatures to the Interior and North
Slope. A low in the Bering Sea will continue to support southerly
flow and showers along the West Coast into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-851-854-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

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