Chena Ridge, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

277
FXAK69 PAFG 181255
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
355 AM AKST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The first of many systems begins to make its way across the West
Coast. This will bring widespread snow showers across the West
Coast to the Upper Kuskokwim through Friday night. Another system
will begin to push south over the NE Arctic Coast Friday night,
bringing another chance for snow showers, gusty winds, and reduced
visibility. Energy will be scattered aloft over the Interior from
these two systems, allowing for intermittent clouds through the
start of the weekend which may help to slightly increase
temperatures. A pattern change could be on the horizon as a series
of lows will be moving over the ridge in the Bering, eventually
pushing it south and bringing SW flow across the state. However,
models are showing various solutions and will need further
monitoring.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clear skies will allow for colder temps today with lows in the
   -30s and -40`s throughout the central interior.

- The next chance for light snowfall looks to be early Friday with
  greater probabilities further west.

- A slight increase in temperatures is expected over the next
  couple of days with greater chance for intermittent cloud cover.
- Any breaks in the clouds could result in temperatures
   remaining the same or becoming colder.
- The more pronounced temperature increase will be farther west in
      association with the system moving SW over the West Coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Another system moving southeast from the Chukchi Sea looks to
  has begun to bring snowfall across the West Coast. This is
  expected to continue through Friday afternoon. Accumulations
  between 2" and 4" are expected.

- Widespread winds, mostly southerly, with gusts between 20 and 30
  mph will accompany the system. The strongest winds will be
  across the western Seward Peninsula and around St. Lawrence
  Island.

- A drop in temperatures can be expected as the system passes with
  northerly flow aloft and mostly clear skies. The coldest
  temperatures will be around -25 to -35. Most of this will be
  confined to the Western Interior.
- Temperatures becoming warmer closer to the coast.

- Another system looks to be brewing over the Chukchi and will
  swing a N-S oriented front across the West Coast late Saturday
  night into Friday.
- Strongest winds with this system will be over the NW Arctic
   Coast, which may bring more periods of reduced visibilities.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Winds will continue to subside through the early morning hours,
  helping to alleviate the Blizzard Warning over the NE Arctic.
  However, some light snow may start up later this evening ahead
  of the next system.

- Another system will begin to move south over the NE Arctic Coast
  on Friday. Snowfall between 1" and 3" can be expected along with
  gusts between 20 and 30 mph. Heavier snowfall can be expected
  farther east along the Arctic Coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The broad blocking pattern continues to persist with a ridge over
the Bering and a trough east of the Al-Can boarder. Snow has begun
to fall across portions of the West Coast with the first system
beginning to move SE from the Chukchi. Winds will continue to
increase over the Kotzebue Sound throughout the morning. Both the
winds and snowfall will work to produce reduced visibilities
across the Kotzebue Sound throughout today. This system will be
spread from the YK-Delta to the Upper Kuskokwim as the system
continues to progress towards the gulf. With this, widespread
snowfall will continue across the West Coast and the Western
interior through Friday evening.

Looking farther north, blizzard conditions from the previous
couple of days will continue to slowly taper off throughout the
morning. A low will continue to spin over Victoria Island, north
of the Canadian mainland, and bring another system across the NE
Arctic Coast on Friday. Winds are not expected to be as strong
with this next system compared to the previous. However, 1" to 3"
of snow across the North Slope may reduce the visibility to a mile
or less at times through early Saturday morning.

The two systems from the North Slope and the West Coast will
advect moisture across the Interior. This will bring intermittent
cloud cover into the early weekend. The best chance for snow,
tonight into Friday morning, will be west and south of Fairbanks.
As the system from the North Slope moves south, scattered snow
showers can be expected across the Eastern Interior Friday night
into Saturday morning.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Following behind the N-S oriented front coming across the West
Coast will be a couple of lows that will be ridging over the ridge
in the Bering. Meanwhile, over the Interior, High pressure will
continue to build behind the shortwave moving into the Gulf of
Alaska. The extended forecast will largely driven by the high
pressure that builds over the Interior. Models are showing the
first system getting blocked by the ridge and moving down the West
Coast and over the Kuskokwim through Monday night. This will be
followed by another system which will potentially bring a pattern
change across the state.

The Canadian seems to be the outlier with this second system as it
moves westerly across the central portion of the state. The GFS
and EC keep the ridge`s strength and keeps the main low over the
Arctic Ocean and extending the associated front across the state.
This solution would create southwesterly flow aloft, which could
bring another chance for heavy snowfall by Christmas Day. This
will continued to monitored closely as slight deviations in the
track or the system and the strength of the ridge will result in
different solutions.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815>817.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-850-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-856-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Twombly