Chena Ridge, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

491
FXAK69 PAFG 282209
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of this past weekend`s arctic front are slowly exiting the
Fortymile and upper Tanana valley and into the Canadian Yukon this
afternoon. Cloudy skies with a few lingering showers, or even a
thunderstorm, remain possible this evening. Meanwhile a couple of
weak shortwave troughs will move through the North Slope...Brooks
Range and Seward Peninsula Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty west-
southwest winds will occur, especially across the Lisburne
Peninsula. Freezing levels are projected to increase to above 5000
feet ASL on Wednesday. Precipitation might begin as a wintry mix
before quickly changing over to rain over Atigun Pass. The eastern
Brooks Range should block most of that precipitation from the
eastern Interior on Thursday though isolated showers near the
Canadian border will be possible. The big story into this weekend is
a strong high pressure ridge that will build over northern Alaska.
Skies will primarily stay clear with a warming and drying trend.
Widespread high temperatures in the 70s, and even 80s will develop
throughout the Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Lingering chances of isolated showers for the Fortymile and upper
Tanana valley through this evening, with drier weather
developing the remainder of the week.

-Temperatures through this weekend will warm into the 70s and
low 80s as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Areas of light rain fog along the West Coast Wednesday and
Thursday. Drier and warmer for areas farther into the Interior.

-Gusty west winds 15 to 25 mph Kotzebue Sound into the northwest
Interior for Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-A storm system will spread rain across the North Slope and Brooks
Range Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty west-southwest winds will
occur.

-Drier and warmer weather is expected by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...through Friday
Clouds, isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Fortymile and
upper Tanana valley will diminish this evening as a weakening
front moves east into the Yukon.

A ridge developing over the Bering Sea will begin to move east over
the Interior the next several days. As the associated high pressure
builds overhead, the ridge will deflect shortwave troughs trying to
advance out of the Chukchi Sea into the North Slope. Bands of rain
will move across the the Lisburne Peninsula northward tonight, and
then through the rest of the North Slope and the Brooks Range on
Wednesday into Thursday. Most of the associated moisture will be
blocked by the Brooks Range, though some light rain is possible near
the Canadian border on Thursday. This is a warmer system than last
weekend`s arctic trough with model soundings showing freezing levels
rising to above 5000 feet ASL. Atigun Pass might begin as a wintry
mix before quickly changing over to rain with this system.

Friday the building high pressure ridge will be the dominant feature
over northern Alaska. Skies should stay mostly clear with a drying
trend. 850mb temps will increase into the 10-14C range by Friday
over much of the Interior.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Skies have cleared behind a cold front which came through the
Interior earlier this week. The exception is in the southeast
Interior where the front lingers, resulting in cloudier weather in
the Upper Tanana Valley and over Fortymile Country. Even where there
are few clouds, the cooler air mass is keeping fire weather
conditions moderate. Temperatures in the Interior should remain
below 70F Tuesday and in the low 60s where there are clouds. The air
mass is dry, but the cooler temps should lead to moderate relative
humidity as well, between 30 to 40 percent at a minimum. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop over the higher terrain surrounding the
upper Tanana Valley Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

A ridge of high pressure will begin to assert itself over Alaska
over the next few days. However, as it tries to do so, another
arctic trough will come in from the northwest on Tuesday night to
resupply the Interior with cool air. As a result, moderate
temperatures and RHs will persist through Thursday. Winds will
increase slightly along with the passage of the trough on Wednesday.
Winds will be westerly in the Interior, with gusts in the teens for
the valleys and stronger for higher elevations.

The ridge becomes more dominant starting Friday, leading to
temperatures peaking in the mid 70s on Friday, and reaching the
upper 70s and 80s in the Interior by the weekend. Minimum relative
humidity will likely be in the 35 to 25% range in the Interior. This
ridge looks to remain the key weather feature through the first few
days of August. The ridge will shift east through the weekend,
bringing the area of hottest temperatures along with it. The Yukon
Flats should have the best chances to see temperatures above 80F on
Sunday. The ridge should suppress thunderstorm development through
the weekend. Light southerly chinooking across the Alaska Range
Sunday as the ridge axis shifts to the east and a low drops south
across the eastern Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...Saturday through Tuesday
A high pressure ridge will remain in place over northern Alaska into
Sunday. 850mb temperatures remain in the 10-14C range especially
over the Central and Eastern Interior, so continued warm and dry
conditions. Upstream a broad longwave trough will extend from the
North Pole to about 35N, south of the Aleutians. In the middle will
be a boundary separating cooler/wetter weather from the warmer and
drier weather. All three 12z extended models show this transition
region setting up over the Western Interior. The GFS appears to be
the outlier in spreading a moist, southwest flow into the Eastern
Interior by Monday. Both the Canadian and ECMWF ensembles are weaker
with the energy bumping into this ridge and preferred. They keep the
trough axis over the West Coast limiting clouds and rain.

The models then seem to realign restrengthening the high pressure
ridge over northern Alaska while spinning up a low over Bristol Bay
by next Tuesday. This would result in more warm and dry weather over
northern Alaska except for the Yukon Delta and southwest Interior.
If this ridge remains this persistent, we could begin to push heat
advisory criteria by the middle of next week for the Central and
Eastern Interior, and perhaps up into the Arctic Plains.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.

&&

$$

Maier/Troyke