Tuscaloosa, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

791
FXUS64 KBMX 101948
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
148 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2024

A complex weather setup is ongoing across Central Alabama today.
First, easterly flow at the surface associated with a CAD wedge has
advected cooler and drier air as far west as the I-65 corridor.
Temperatures in the 60s, with dewpoints in the 50s are showing up
across our far eastern and northeastern counties. Gradient winds
have also picked up, due to the incoming cold front to our west and
1030mb ridge over the Atlantic coast. With strong easterly to
southeasterly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft,
isentropic lift continues with overcast skies areawide. Although the
0.5 degree radar mosaic is showing good coverage of radar returns
over the much of the area, very little of those returns are actually
reaching the ground. The 12z KBMX RAOB this morning measured a large
amount of dry air aloft between 750 and 500mb.
Therefore, occasional sprinkles can be expected for a good portion
of the area through this afternoon, with light rain making it to the
surface across far southern counties. Moistening is finally
occurring at the 700mb level across western and northwest counties,
and additional showers are expected to develop out ahead of the cold
front that will slowly approach from the west. With an overall lack
of instability, I`ve removed mention of storms from the forecast
through the short-term period.

The cold front will move toward Central Alabama overnight tonight,
while the CAD wedge is eroded by southwesterly surface flow out
ahead of the front. Low stratus cloud development is likely, along
with areas of fog, especially for higher elevation locations. Mild
temperatures in the 60s will continue for overnight lows.
Scattered to numerous showers are expected across western and
northwest counties as the front moves into the CWA Monday morning.
Rain chances will diminish by Monday afternoon as drier air advects
southward behind the cold front. Highs will be cooler behind the
front across the north in the 70s, while folks in the south will see
temperatures near 80 degrees.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2024

The forecast from the previous discussion remains mostly valid,
although some tweaks/changes to temperatures and PoPs were made.
Most notably, PoPs were raised for Wednesday night as global models
and consensus blends come into better agreement.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2024

Zonal flow and dry conditions will be present across Central Alabama
at the start of the extended period as a cold front moves further
away to our southeast. The pattern looks to remain progressive next
week with a broad ridge over the Central CONUS rapidly shifting
eastward by the middle of the week. A longwave trough will
replace the ridge with an area of low pressure developing over
the Midsouth region Wednesday night. Global models diverge on the
strength of the trough and resultant surface low, but guidance
has done nearly a complete 180 on PoPs as opposed to previous runs
with the possibility that the remnant low of Rafael could get
picked up by the trough and move eastward along the Gulf Coast,
contributing to scattered to numerous showers and possibly some
thunderstorms across the area Wednesday night into Thursday in
conjunction with another frontal passage. The odds of receiving
beneficial rain appear to be increasing. Like the ridge before it,
the trough is progged to quickly rotate eastward as deep westerly
to northwesterly flow sets up across Central Alabama. The weather
looks quite nice towards the end of the week with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures ranging from the lower 70s during the day
to 40s/50s at night.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2024

MVFR stratus conditions will persist into the early afternoon
hours today, but will gradually improve to VFR through 21z for all
terminals. -RA or -SHRA will remain possible at times, but any
rain that falls will be very light and should not affect
visibilities. SHRA chances will remain in the forecast through the
overnight hours tonight, as ceilings crash to IFR, and potentially
LIFR conditions. At least IFR stratus will persist through at
least 14z for many terminals, slowly rising between 14z and 18z.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty at times from the east and
southeast, prevailing around 10 knots with some gusts between 15
and 20 knots. Winds diminish overnight tonight and will remain
light through the end of the forecast period.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Periods of light rain will continue this afternoon and tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front. Min RH will remain well above critical
thresholds through Monday. 20 ft winds will be from the southeast at
5 to 8 mph this afternoon, shifting northerly on Monday as the front
passes through the area. Some drier air will filter in behind the
front on Tuesday, but min RH will still remain above critical
thresholds, ranging from 40 to 50%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  76  46  73 /  70  30   0   0
Anniston    60  76  49  73 /  50  30   0   0
Birmingham  64  76  50  73 /  60  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  78  50  75 /  50  20   0   0
Calera      63  78  53  76 /  50  30   0   0
Auburn      62  77  55  75 /  20  20   0   0
Montgomery  64  80  57  77 /  20  20  10   0
Troy        64  78  58  76 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...56/GDG