Tuscaloosa, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

085
FXUS64 KBMX 130821
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
321 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Well the rain faucet has been opened up across the area and looks
like it will remain open and full blast for the next couple of days.
A weak trough will be in place over the area through the end of
the week and will continue to provide a very good chance of rain
and storms through Saturday. Overall this will not be a complete
washout for everyone. Today`s activity looks to be mainly an
afternoon and early evening event. The most likely areas to see
activity early afternoon will be in the west, with the central and
eastern areas late afternoon and early evening. Most of the
convection should be ending in the east and central by Midnight at
the latest. Patchy fog and low clouds will once again be in the
plan for the overnight period, with as much moisture that in
place. Saturday looks to be rinse and repeat forecast with
activity starting in the west early afternoon and then developing
further east and south through the peak heating of the day.
Showers and storms will likely persist once again till around
Midnight. Storms each day will be strong with a very high
precipitation rate. So we will need to monitor for any stationary
or barely moving storms for localized flooding in addition to
gusty winds.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025

Diurnally-driven numerous to widespread showers and storms will
remain in the forecast through early next week. Central Alabama
will be wedged in between a persistent 500mb weakness to the
northwest and 594 decameter ridge just off the Florida Atlantic
coast. 700 to 500mb flow is expected to become westerly for a
short period of time on Sunday as the mid to upper level trough
axis swings eastward over the Deep South. Another mid to upper
level disturbance is expected to dive southeastward into Arkansas
by Sunday evening, providing additional synoptic lift for shower
and storm development. The most widespread storm development
initially may end up being over central and southern Mississippi
Sunday afternoon, where the best available 1000-500mb moisture
will reside. These storms will likely push eastward into Central
Alabama by the late afternoon and evening hours, aided by outflow
boundary interactions. High temperatures on Sunday should remain
muted due to the more widespread clouds and convective activity in
the mid to upper 80s, but conditions will remain very muggy due to
the tropical air mass. We`ll continue to watch for heavy rainfall
producers as PWATs remain well over 2 inches.

Elevated rain and storm chances will continue through Tuesday of
next week, as the mid-level weakness remains to our west/northwest.
Just when we thought a clear indication of a much warmer pattern
was starting to evolve by the end of next week, there are now
signals of a stronger longwave trough developing over the midwest
and into the Great Lakes by Thursday. Our hotter pattern could be
delayed until a bit later into the month, as enough upper level
support would send a cool front our direction by next Friday.
We`ve got a ways to go to see if that solution verifies, but
immediately following by next weekend the 500mb heat ridge is
advertised to develop in the vicinity of the southern Plains
States according to global guidance.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

Most of the showers and storms have dissipated for the night. Some
patchy fog will be possible through sunrise along with MVFR/IFR
cigs. An increase in cumulus after 16z with showers and storms in
the west and south after 18z and then the northeast after 20z.
Looks like rain ends by 00z at TCL and then 1 to 2 hours later for
the rest of the sites.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values are forecast to remain above 50 percent for the next
several days as very moist air mass moves northward over the Deep
South. Daily rain chances will remain elevated as well. 20 ft
winds from the south to southwest should remain less than 7 mph
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  68  85  68 /  60  40  90  60
Anniston    86  71  85  70 /  60  40  80  50
Birmingham  88  71  85  70 /  70  40  90  60
Tuscaloosa  87  72  86  71 /  80  40  90  50
Calera      86  71  84  71 /  60  40  80  50
Auburn      86  72  86  71 /  60  30  80  40
Montgomery  89  72  89  71 /  70  30  80  40
Troy        89  71  89  71 /  70  30  80  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...16