Muscle Shoals, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

701
FXUS64 KHUN 251830
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
130 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms have limited high
temps to the mid to high 80s across the area with heat index
values in the mid 90s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to continue through the afternoon and into the late
evening as an area of vort max moves NE through the TN Valley
along the western periphery of high pressure. While no severe
weather is anticipated, PWATS near 2" and dew points in the mid
70s will support heavy rainfall and lightning as the main threats.
The area of locally higher vorticity may support showers and
storms lingering slightly longer into the overnight period but
conditions should dry out as we head into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

This weekend will be the start of a long and tiresome heat wave
that will extend well into the next workweek. Through the short
term forecast the aforementioned high pressure will retrograde and
build anchoring itself over the TN Valley. At the surface this
will amount to a slow yet consistent increase in temperatures
each day. Temps look to climb from the low 90s on Saturday to the
high 90s by Monday. This, paired with dew points remaining in the
mid to high 70s will amount to heat indices over 100 each day.

Starting with Saturday, chances for showers and storms in the
afternoon again look to largely inhibit afternoon highs from
reaching Heat Advisory Criteria. While a few urban location may
touch 105, we will hold off on an Advisory for now and adjust our
focus to the new week.

Models continue to support Heat Advisory conditions on both Sunday
and Monday, the new question now is if we could be looking at
Extreme Heat Warning Criteria (HI of 110+). This period is
slightly outside the range of HRES models but global models do
continue to hint at the possibility for NW and north central AL to
see heat index values near 110 with Monday being the most
favorable. While we have a high confidence in the need for heat
products for the start of the work week, we will likely hold off
on their issuance for another 24 hours to allow for more analysis
of HIRES models as they come in.

In summary, this will be the start of a very hot week in the SE,
potentially the hottest week of the summer. It will become
increasingly important to take care of yourself and your loved
ones in the heat as heat impact compound each day. Now would be a
good time to think about how you and your loved ones/pets may
need to adjust your daily routine to account for the heat next
week. Examples of this include having extra water available,
planning to take extra breaks for water, shade, and cooling, and
checking in on those spending time outdoors for work, sports, or
exercise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

The long term period is dictated by oppressive heat as an upper
level ridge and subsequent sfc high pressure system remain
stagnant over the southeast U.S. High temperatures throughout this
time are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s coupled with heat
indices up to 105-110 degrees (potentially exceeding 110 degrees
on Tuesday and Wednesday). Overnight lows will provide little to
no relief as they drop into the mid to upper 70s. These
temperatures are around 5-10 degrees above normal throughout the
area for this time of year. HeatRisk is forecast to reach major
(risk level 3 of 4) throughout all of the Tennessee Valley, with
isolated portions reaching extreme (risk level 4 of 4) by mid
week. This means this level of heat will likely affect anyone
without cooling/hydration as well as health systems and
industries. In isolated areas, this could also affect some
infrastructure by mid week. Heat products will be very likely in
the week through at least Wednesday. We continue to encourage
everyone to stay hydrated, take breaks in shaded areas if working
outdoors, and wear light-colored, lightweight clothing.

In addition to the heat threat, a series of upper level
shortwaves will allow enough forcing for low chances (30% or less)
of showers and thunderstorms daily. We will also be monitoring
the evolution of an upper level trough swinging eastward through
the Great Lakes region by mid week, which could bring slightly
increased storm coverage through the area by the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. VCSH
are likely through most of the afternoon and evening. While
showers are light and scattered, should a shower move direly over
a terminal it may briefly lower ceilings or visibilities. Showers
will fall off early this evening with VFR conditions for most of
the night. Around sunrise (11-12Z) tomorrow an MVFR BKN stratus
deck looks to impact both terminals. We will refine timing and
exact ceiling heights of this cloud deck in future TAF issuances.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD