Mobile, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

694
FXUS64 KMOB 152045
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Now through Monday Night...

We start the period well defined low/mid level ridge of high
pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic. westward across the
FL Peninsula into the central GUlf. A H20/H30 upper level trof axis
aligned over the central Gulf coast and was marked by a cyclonic
curvature in the cloud elements. This feature operating on a weakly
defined coastal surface boundary draped from southeast AL/southwest
GA border to down across the AL/NW FL coastal waters, combined with
more than sufficient deep layer environmental moisture (PWAT`s 1.8
to 2.1") and daily instability has resulted in pockets of cold cloud
tops => scattering of showers and storms. As we go through the
remainder of the day, the expectation is coverage will begin to
increase over the land zones and move/develop northward. Forecasters
are beginning to see this in radar trends in central MS. At the
present time, the environment is characterized by high CAPE and low
shear, resulting in typical summer-time ordinary, pulse type storms,
which could become strong at times contributing to locally brief
strong wind gusts and perhaps small hail upon collapse of storm
centroids. We cannot rule out a brief severe storm, but the overall
threat is low. Frequent lightning and brief, localized heavy rains
are also possible with the stronger storms. Storms lingering into
the evening are expected to weaken with the loss of instability. A
similar pattern remains in place as we open the work week on Monday
and Monday night.

Rip current risk along area beaches is low. /10

Tuesday Through Saturday...

An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to nose
into the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll toward mid-week. A
shortwave trough to our west begins to lift out of the region as the
ridge nudges deeper into the Deep South. As ridging builds overhead
late in the week and into the weekend, rain chances will begin to
decrease and the heat will begin to crank up. In the meantime,
expect a diurnal convective pattern Tuesday through Thursday with
high rain chances each afternoon. At this point, the highest POPs
remain on Tuesday afternoon given the proximity of the shortwave
trough. Pulse thunderstorms are possible each afternoon give ample
instability and minimal shear, so we can`t rule out a few strong
storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main
threats.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains LOW on Tuesday and
increases to a MODERATE on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest rip
current probability guidance continues to trend toward a MODERATE
risk by Friday. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

CIG`s and VSBY temporarily down to MVFR categories with passage
of any tsra containing heavier downpours through 16.00Z. Away from
convective influences, winds light. Lingering convective activity
after 16.00Z is expected to be lifting northward of the terminals
and weakening. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light onshore flow to persist into the new week. Occasionally
moderate southerly flow is possible, especially in the nearshore
waters which will be influenced by the diurnal land and sea breeze
pattern. Winds and seas will likely be temporarily higher in and
near the vicinity of storms. The environment also looks to be
supportive of waterspouts in morning activity near the coast. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  74  90  75  89  75  91 /  20  60  40  80  20  70  10  70
Pensacola   77  88  78  88  79  88  78  89 /  20  70  40  80  20  50  20  60
Destin      79  88  79  86  81  87  80  87 /  30  70  50  80  20  50  20  50
Evergreen   71  91  72  90  72  91  72  92 /  30  60  20  80  10  70  10  60
Waynesboro  70  91  71  91  73  91  72  93 /  30  70  20  70  10  70  10  60
Camden      71  89  72  90  72  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  80  10  70  10  60
Crestview   72  90  73  90  73  91  72  92 /  20  70  30  80  10  60  10  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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