Madison, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

704
FXUS64 KHUN 160604
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
104 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 920 PM CDT Wed May 15 2026

 - A significant warming trend this weekend into early next week
   with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

 - Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
   the Tennessee by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The upper-level ridge axis currently over portions of the eastern
CONUS will begin to shift eastward early Saturday. A trailing
subtle mid-level shortwave will translate into portions of the
mid-south, providing enough lift to increase cloud cover while
remaining dry heading into the early to mid afternoon hours. At
the surface, a similar pattern to previous days will unfold as a
developing surface low over the southern plains will coexist with
a pronounced high pressure system over the southwest Atlantic.
This will continue to drive southerly flow over much of the
southeast beginning a gradual warming trend heading into this
weekend, with highs in the l80s-m80s expected this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

An upper ridge axis will amply across the Southeastern United
States early next week, resulting in a pronounced warm up across
the region. Thanks to the ample sunshine and deep southerly flow,
high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s both
Sunday and Monday. Some cloud cover will gradually begin to
increase Monday afternoon/evening into Monday night as a
disturbance from the west approaches the region. However, strong
subsidence from the ridge will keep any mentionable precipitation
chances out of the forecast through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The upper ridge over the Southeastern states will gradually weaken
next week as an upper trough slides from the western CONUS up into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by late week. By this time,
the upper level flow over the Tennessee Valley looks to become
largely zonal. In addition, a subtle shortwave is shown to progress
from the ArkLaMiss region into the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front, associated with a parent low slated
to swing over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada Tuesday into
Wednesday, looks to approach the Tennessee Valley Tuesday into
Wednesday with FROPA later on Wednesday. Sensible weather from
Tuesday through Friday next week for north Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee will therefore consist of daily chances of showers
and storms, with the greatest chances anticipated on Wednesday.

Model PWATs increase to between 1.5-1.8 inches on Wednesday, which
are right around the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) when compared with
Sounding Climatology from BMX. Therefore, showers have the potential
to be efficient rainfall producers. This trend will be monitored over
the coming days for model consistency. Additionally, although
sufficient instability is indicated by guidance for thunderstorm
development, confidence in any severe weather is currently low due to
model bulk shear values below 30 knots. This will also be monitored
in case bulk shear values increase, in which case the potential of
any strong to severe storms would also increase.

Lastly, a general cooling trend is forecast through Thursday, with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90s on Tuesday decreasing into the
upper 70s to lower 80s by Thursday (due to FROPA on Wednesday).
However, this will be short-lived, as temperatures rebound back into
the lower to mid 80s on Friday. Lows will follow a similar pattern,
with mid to upper 60s forecast Tuesday night followed by upper 50s to
lower 60s Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC/AM
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC/AM