Florence, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

278
FXUS64 KHUN 131207
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
707 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Although an upper low over western Arkansas will not move much,
models do forecast several weak shortwaves to move NNE or NE well
ahead of the upper low. The forcing associated with these
shortwaves should be close enough to northern Alabama to produce
shower and thunderstorm coverage between 20 and 30 percent around
sunrise into the early morning hours in NW Alabama. A very humid
airmass is in place over the area and should remain over northern
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee into the afternoon hours.
This and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to maybe near 90
degrees in a few locations should enable 1000 to 3000 J/KG of
instability to develop later this afternoon. Luckily, shear is
weak (less than 25 knots) in most guidance. So, organized severe
thunderstorm development is not expected.

However, as additional weak shortwaves move through western/central
Mississippi, coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity (40 to
70 percent) should expand across northern Alabama and into
southern middle Tennessee. DCAPE is not overly impressive, but
does climb to between 500 and 800 J/KG. Given the instability
produced by guidance later this afternoon, can`t rule out some
strong thunderstorm development. Main threats would be damaging
winds, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and frequent lightning. If
training of storms occurred over the same areas, isolated flash
flood could occur as well.

Higher rain/storm coverage in the afternoon should damper daytime
highs a tad into the lower to mid 80s primarily.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Convection will gradually wane Friday evening, but low chances for
showers/storms were kept in the forecast overnight due to
lingering outflow boundaries and a very moist environment. With
the aforementioned areas of low pressure in place, expect a soggy
Father`s Day weekend, with very high (70-90%) chances for showers
and storms both days. While a storm or two could become strong,
the main concern will be locally heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding with slow-moving storms in a very favorable
environment for efficient rain-producing storms. PWATs will peak
near 2" (99th percentile per BMX sounding climatology). It will be
a very soupy air mass, with warm/humid conditions forecast. The
dense cloud cover will keep temperatures in check (highs in the
mid 80s), but we won`t feel any relief given the very high RH
values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The initial area of low pressure of will gradually shift east of
the area, but we will remain in a very active pattern with zonal
flow prevailing aloft. A couple additional shortwaves will bring
medium chances (50-70%) for showers and thunderstorms nearly
everyday next week (Monday through Thursday) as we don`t modify
the warm, moist air mass. With just a touch more heating each day,
highs will creep back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s,
especially by midweek. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, this will push heat index values to just above the 100 degree
mark by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place at both terminals. Expect
MVFR CIGS to push into KMSL after 15Z and KHSV after 16Z. Chances
are too low until closer to around 20Z to include a predominant -SHRA
with VCTS group at both terminals. During this period MVFR
conditions are expected, maybe IFR. Next issuance can likely put a
better timing for this activity and more definite period of -TSRA.
Winds should keep fog at bay overnight tonight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW