Daphne, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

906
FXUS64 KMOB 021126
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A large upper trof over the western and central states moves
little through Friday, then finally progresses slowly into the
eastern CONUS through Tuesday. A surface low lifts from the Plains
to across the Great Lakes and gradually brings a frontal boundary
towards the region that extends from Tennessee to eastern Texas
by Thursday before stalling. A surface ridge meanwhile remains in
place over the southeastern states, and this pattern tightens the
pressure gradient sufficiently to result in breezy conditions for
much of the area today. Have opted to issue a Wind Advisory from
10 am to 7 pm roughly along and west of I-65 for wind gusts up to
40 mph. In addition, it appears that minor coastal flooding is
possible mainly along the Mobile Bay Causeway, and have issued a
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 am until 6 pm for this concern. A
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties
until 9 am this morning, by which time any lingering fog should
have dissipated as the southerly flow increases. Will need to also
monitor for additional fog development near the coast tonight.
Dry conditions are expected over the forecast area through
Thursday, then small pops follow for portions of southeast
Mississippi on Friday as a series of modest shortwaves move across
the region.

As the large upper trof begins to advances towards the eastern
states, another surface low is expected to develop over the
southern Plains and bring a cold front through the forecast area
mainly during the day on Sunday. It appears that a shortwave trof
(or series of shortwaves) embedded in the large upper trof pattern
will move across the forecast region Saturday into Sunday morning
which could aid/result in a line of convection moving through the
area either ahead of or along the approaching cold front. Have
gone with slight chance to chance pops for the western third of
the area on Saturday with slight chance to likely pops following
for Saturday night, with the highest pops over portions of
southeast Mississippi. Likely to categorical pops are expected for
Sunday. MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg are indicated over the
western half of the area on Saturday which then spread over the
remainder of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of
the cold front. A 40 knot 850 mb jet develops on Saturday and may
strengthen a bit more Saturday night before tapering off on
Sunday. We will continue to closely monitor this time period for a
strong to severe storm risk. SPC has included a portion of the
area west of I-65 in a 15% severe storm risk for Saturday into
Saturday night, with the central and eastern portions of the area
in a 15% risk for Sunday. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect
through Sunday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

LIFR/VLIFR conditions over the coastal counties improve to MVFR
this morning, then IFR conditions develop this evening with thick fog
possible overnight. Further inland, IFR to MVFR conditions
improve to VFR this morning, then IFR/MVFR conditions with patchy
fog develop tonight. Southeasterly winds increase to 15-20 knots
this morning then diminish to 5-10 knots tonight. Gusts to 30-40
knots are possible today. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected
through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
Alabama Gulf waters until 1 pm Thursday, and is also in effect for
Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound until 3 pm this afternoon.
Small craft should exercise caution over much of the remainder of
the area. Dense fog is expected over bays and near shore waters
until mid morning, and will need to monitor for additional fog
development tonight. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      82  70  82  69  81  69  82  67 /   0   0  10   0  10   0  10  30
Pensacola   77  70  77  70  78  70  78  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      77  68  78  69  78  70  78  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   87  65  86  66  86  64  86  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  20
Waynesboro  87  69  87  68  86  68  86  65 /  10   0  10   0  20   0  30  60
Camden      87  67  85  68  87  66  87  66 /   0   0  10   0   0   0  10  30
Crestview   85  65  83  65  84  64  83  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>055-261>266.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for ALZ263-264.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-
     650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670.

&&

$$

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