Chelsea, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

779
FXUS64 KBMX 160550
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1250 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

- There is a medium to high chance that some communities across
  Central Alabama will see their first 90 degree day of the year
  by early next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
  parts of the region mid to late next week. Until then, any
  activity will be very limited in coverage as fair weather
  dominates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026

A PWAT (moisture) deficit remains in place for most of Alabama
this weekend (Friday evening weather balloon from NWS Birmingham
showed 0.73"); however, southerly flow induced by deepening low
pressure over the central Plains and high pressure over the
Atlantic should result in plumes of increased PWATs to our west
and east on Sunday. Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms,
isolated to scattered in coverage, are shown to develop during
the afternoon along those areas of increased moisture. Given the
proximity of the axis over Georgia, it`s plausible that some
activity clips parts of east Alabama. Otherwise, fair weather
dominates.

A persistent troughing pattern is forecast over the central U.S.
next week with successive shortwave troughs along its southern
flank. This is likely to ease the influence of nearby high
pressure enough to allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mid to late in the week as moisture content
increases more broadly. A front is even shown to make it to our
area, though it`s likely to be weak given a majority of the upper-
level support missing us to the north. Still, it could provide a
modest enhancement to the coverage of activity.

Lastly, while forecast soundings show weak to moderate
instability next week, deep-layer flow isn`t all that strong
(bulk shear near 25 knots); thus, an organized severe weather
threat isn`t apparent at this time.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours thanks to the
influence of East Coast surface ridging. As a result, winds will
be light and variable overnight. During the day with mixing,
winds will be southerly 5-9kts. High clouds will be noted at
times due to a weak upper disturbance that will move across the
Deep South. However, overall moisture will be limited and no rain
is anticipated.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower and thunderstorm chances are nil to very low through early
next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
then forecast mid to late in the week. Moderate to extreme
drought conditions continue across Central Alabama, though the
lack of low MinRH or gusty winds over the days ahead lessens bona
fide fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  59  88  61 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    84  61  87  63 /   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  85  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  84  60  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      86  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      86  66  88  66 /   0   0  20  10
Montgomery  87  62  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
Troy        87  62  87  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...08