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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070737

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad trough across the West will undergo intensification today. A
   strong mid-level jet will develop in the western Great Basin and
   California. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the
   Great Basin into the lower Colorado River Valley.

   ...Southern California...
   The offshore pressure gradient may be sufficient to support elevated
   to critical fire weather by this afternoon. RH will be the main
   uncertainty during the afternoon, but around 20% appears likely and
   near 15% is certainly possible. Winds this afternoon will peak at
   20-25 mph outside of the terrain. Both the offshore gradient and the
   supporting upper-level winds are expected to increase in magnitude
   during the evening/overnight into Wednesday morning. The strongest
   upper-level winds (and thus wind gusts) are most likely around very
   late today to early Wednesday. How low RH will remain overnight is
   also somewhat uncertain, but wind strength (25-35 mph) would still
   support higher-end critical conditions in the typical Santa Ana
   corridors in LA/Ventura Counties.

   ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070738

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES
   AND VENTURA COUNTIES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...Synopsis...
   A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River
   Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag
   southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain
   favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California
   through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening
   through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong
   offshore surface winds across southern California.

   ...Southern California...
   Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts
   within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning
   into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may
   experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to
   around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the
   intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should
   ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for
   portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure
   extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will
   extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the
   upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient,
   elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into
   Thursday morning.

   ..Wendt.. 01/07/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern
   California coast at the start of the extended period before a
   relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across
   the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and
   cold temperatures across the country. 

   ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California...
   Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start
   of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast.
   Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the
   West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward
   across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the
   next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A
   building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with
   strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong,
   prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning
   on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. 

   Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained
   winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph
   possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are
   expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus
   continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will
   occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards
   of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions
   down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values
   fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may
   experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions
   Wednesday morning and afternoon. 

   Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning
   into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread
   regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains
   high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher
   terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday
   morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced,
   and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast
   increases.

   ..Moore.. 01/06/2025
      




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