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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191702

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN
   UTAH...AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...

   Only minor changes to previous forecast were needed. A broad
   upper-level trough and associated stronger southwest flow pattern
   will bring widespread Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions
   to much of the Great Basin today. Dry fuels, low humidity and
   expansive area of 20-25 mph from the southwest will contribute to
   wildfire spread potential. Latest model guidance suggests fast
   moving showers and isolated thunderstorms with minimal rainfall
   across southeastern Oregon late today into this evening but cooler
   temperatures following a cold front passage, cloud cover and
   isolated showers Friday preclude introduction of Isolated Dry
   Thunderstorm highlights.

   ..Williams.. 06/19/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Within the base of a large-scale trough moving into the western
   CONUS, a swath of moderate-strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
   overspread central CA into the Great Basin today. In response,
   surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin and
   separately over the Lower CO River Valley. 

   ...Great Basin...
   Deep boundary-layer mixing is expected across the Great Basin during
   the afternoon, with surface temperatures climbing into the 90s to
   100 F and RH falling into the single digits. The deep boundary-layer
   mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening
   regional pressure gradient, will contribute to an expansive area of
   20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts).
   The greatest overlap of these strong surface winds and low RH is
   expected over northwestern NV and western UT into eastern NV and far
   northwestern AZ. Given dry/receptive fuels over these areas,
   critical fire-weather conditions are expected.

   ...San Joaquin Valley and vicinity...
   Hot and dry conditions will combine with 15-20 mph sustained
   northwesterly surface winds during the afternoon into the evening.
   This will promote elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are
   receptive to fire spread.

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will
   favor isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of southeastern OR
   into central ID during the evening hours. However, current
   indications are that fuels are only modestly receptive to
   lightning-induced ignitions -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm
   highlights at this time.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191958

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
   SOUTHWEST...

   ...Great Basin into the Southwest...
   A prominent low pressure system and associated 60-70 mph mid-level
   jet entering the northwestern U.S. will promote an expansive area of
   critical fire weather conditions across much of the Great Basin,
   northern Arizona and Four Corners area on Friday. The  pronounced
   juxtaposition of a mid-level jet maxima, a deep and well-mixed
   boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 10 percent or below
   is expected across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The
   combination of sustained winds of 25-30 mph and very dry surface
   layer could yield locally extremely critical fire weather conditions
   across western portions of the Colorado Plateau Friday. 

   ...Southern California into the San Joaquin Valley...
   Enhanced west-northwest flow and within a dry boundary layer will
   support an elevated fire weather threat mainly leeward of interior
   mountain ranges across Southern California Friday. Previous forecast
   (see below) remains on track.

   ..Williams.. 06/19/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   A robust midlevel low will advance eastward across the Northwest
   during the day, while a swath of strong deep-layer westerly flow
   overspreads much of the western CONUS. In response, surface low
   pressure will deepen over the northern Great Basin, promoting a
   tightening pressure gradient across the Great Basin into the
   Southwest. This large-scale pattern will support widespread critical
   fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin into the Southwest. 

   ...Great Basin into the Southwest...
   Strong diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will support
   another day of widespread single-digit RH across the region. At the
   same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft,
   combined with the tightening pressure gradient, will yield an
   expansive area of 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds.
   Given increasingly dry fuels across much of the Great Basin into the
   Southwest, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected,
   with localized extremely critical conditions possible over
   terrain-favored areas. 

   ...Southern CA into the San Joaquin Valley...
   Deep-layer west-northwesterly flow on the upstream-side of the
   midlevel low will overspread central and southern CA, where the
   tight regional pressure gradient will be in place. This will promote
   breezy/gusty surface winds primarily over the interior mountains and
   valley -- where 15-20 percent RH is expected. These dry/breezy
   conditions will favor elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels
   are receptive to wildfire spread.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday...
   Elevated mid-level flow ahead of a an upper-level trough moving
   through the Northern Rockies will linger over the Intermountain West
   through the weekend. This will interact with a deep and well-mixed
   boundary layer over the Southwest to bring breezy winds amid low
   relative humidity amid dry fuels to support an ongoing fire weather
   threat across the region. A cold front will usher in cooler
   temperatures and higher relative humidity across much of the Great
   Basin on Day 4/Sunday, translating fire weather concerns eastward
   into the greater Four Corners region. Farther west, dry northerly
   flow in the wake of a cold front still supports a fire weather
   threat across the California Central Valley on Day 3/Saturday.

   ...Day 5-6/Monday-Tuesday...
   An upper-level trough will persist over the western U.S. early next
   week reinforcing daytime elevated winds across portions of the Upper
   Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona. Dry and breezy conditions
   will persist, with dry fuels aiding in increased wildfire spread
   potential.

   ...Day 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday...
   Synoptically driven dry and breezy conditions will wane across the
   western U.S. as the upper-level trough becomes more diffuse with
   weak mid and upper-level flow in its wake by midweek. In addition,
   model guidance consensus suggests moisture beginning to intrude into
   western New Mexico and southern Arizona as early as Day 5/Monday.
   Initial surge of moisture could bring a dry thunderstorm threat to
   the area where fuels are very dry but confidence remains low,
   precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this
   time.

   ..Williams.. 06/19/2025
      




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