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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 181615

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021

   Valid 181700Z - 191200Z


   Today's fire weather forecast remains on track, with only minor
   modifications needed based on the latest weather and fuel guidance.
   The primary adjustment with this forecast update was to extend the
   northern Rockies Elevated fire weather area farther east into
   portions of west-central South Dakota, western Nebraska, and north
   eastern Colorado, where minimum RH values less than 10% (near 5%
   locally), sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, and receptive fuels
   are expected. While some of these areas may see a bit lighter wind
   speeds (e.g., across portions of Northeast Colorado where sustained
   winds of 10-15 mph are more likely) ERC values exceeding the 90th
   percentile across the area coupled with the extremely low minimum RH
   values should foster Elevated fire weather conditions this

   Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
   today's fire weather forecast.

   ..Elliott.. 09/18/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021/

   Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely today as
   winds increase in response to an approaching upper-level trough in
   the Pacific Northwest. Hot, dry, and windy conditions across much of
   the West yesterday aided in curing fuels, which will help support
   widespread fire weather concerns today. While this system will bring
   beneficial rainfall to parts of the Pacific Northwest, thunderstorm
   chances across Utah, western Colorado, and southwest Wyoming may
   pose a low-end lightning-driven fire weather concern. 

   ...Western Great Basin into Southwest Montana...
   VWP observations over the past few hours from ID and MT show
   strengthening mid-level flow as the upper-level wave continues to
   move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. This trend is expected to
   continue through the day as an axis of stronger flow becomes
   established from northwest NV into ID and western MT ahead of a cold
   front. Diurnal boundary-layer mixing and a nearly uni-directional
   wind profile will allow for efficient downward transfer of stronger
   winds aloft. Ensemble guidance continues to show high probabilities
   for 20-25 mph winds through this corridor with gusts up to 30-40 mph
   (and possibly up to 40-50 mph for wind-prone locations). Receptive
   fuels are already in place for most locations and RH reductions into
   the low teens are expected. Critical conditions remain most likely
   through this northwestern NV-southwest MT corridor, but may extend
   as far south as the lee of the central/southern Sierra. There is
   some uncertainty regarding the westward extent of both critical and
   elevated conditions due to cloud cover/rainfall associated with the
   approaching cold front.

   ...Southern Montana to northeast Wyoming...
   Southwesterly winds will likely increase to 15-25 mph this afternoon
   as a surface low deepens over the Canadian Prairies. Downslope
   affects will aid in RH reductions into the low teens to low 20s, and
   boundary-layer mixing will support wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph.
   Critical conditions are expected across south-central MT into
   northeast WY where downslope warming/drying will be strongest in the
   lee of the terrain, but may occur as far north as northeast MT. 

   ...Utah, Western Colorado, and southwest Wyoming...
   Thunderstorms are likely today across much of UT and into adjacent
   areas of western CO and southwest WY as a surge of monsoonal
   moisture shifts northward in tandem with a weak upper-level impulse.
   Recent fuel analyses indicate some locations have receptive fuels
   with ERC values above the 75th percentile and fine fuel moisture
   values below 5%. As such, lightning may pose a low-end fire weather
   concern. However, no highlights will be introduced given the overall
   modest fuel status of the region and high wetting rain potential.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 181848

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on track with only
   minor adjustments made with this update based on the latest weather
   and fuel guidance. One exception may be across portions of northern
   California, where increasing northerly winds late Day 2/Sunday
   evening into Day 3/Monday morning may allow for at least locally
   elevated fire weather conditions considering somewhat poor overnight
   RH recoveries. Though, at this time forecast RH values are a bit too
   large to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Furthermore, there
   is potential for precipitation today into tonight (with
   greater/lesser amounts north/south), which adds some uncertainty
   regarding fuel status across parts of the area. 

   ...Eastern Wyoming into the High Plains...
   A minor expansion was made to the Elevated fire weather area based
   on the latest ensemble high-resolution forecast guidance. While
   locally elevated fire weather conditions appear likely farther south
   into portions of eastern Colorado, at this time the forecast
   spotty/brief nature of these conditions preclude an Elevated fire
   weather area. A strong cold front is forecast to move across the
   Elevated area during the late afternoon and early evening. Winds are
   forecast to quickly shift from west/southwesterly to
   north/northwesterly and become quite gusty, which would complicate
   any ongoing fire suppression efforts. 

   Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
   tomorrow's fire weather forecast.

   ..Elliott.. 09/18/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021/

   Fire weather concerns will become limited spatially Sunday as
   showers and thunderstorms overspread the inter-mountain West behind
   a cold front. A trailing surface trough along the High Plains will
   induce downslope flow across eastern WY and CO, which may result in
   elevated fire weather conditions. Likewise, increasing winds ahead
   of a cold front may support areas of elevated conditions across
   southeastern Nevada. Fire weather concerns may also evolve across
   parts of the southern Sierra, but will likely remain too localized
   for highlights.

   ...Eastern Wyoming and High Plains...
   Downslope west to southwesterly winds will likely increase to 15-20
   mph across eastern WY Sunday afternoon, and a few locations may see
   sustained winds near 25 mph prior to a cold frontal passage late in
   the afternoon. RH reductions into the teens are possible, but may be
   hindered by increasing clouds through the day. Elevated conditions
   appear most likely across east-central WY, but may evolve as far
   south as eastern CO. 

   ...Southeast Nevada...
   A cold front is forecast to gradually translate southeastward across
   the Great Basin through the day Sunday. Ahead of this boundary, warm
   temperatures and mostly clear skies will support deep boundary-layer
   mixing that will likely result in RH reductions into the teens with
   breezy 15-20 mph winds. Elevated conditions are possible, but the
   spatial extent of the threat remains somewhat uncertain, especially
   given the potential for wetting rainfall across far eastern NV and
   western UT over the next 24 hours.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 181915

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   A mid-level trough is forecast to continue moving across the
   northern Rockies and into the upper mid-west Day 3/Monday through
   Day 4/Tuesday. Mid-level ridging is then forecast to temporarily
   build across the Northwest Day 4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday before
   another mid-level trough begins to impact the western CONUS.
   Intra/inter-model consistency degrades beginning as early as Day
   5/Wednesday reducing confidence in the forecast beyond then. 

   ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California...
   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late Day
   2/Sunday into Day 3/Monday as strong/gusty northerly winds overlap
   areas with relatively poor overnight RH recoveries. At this time,
   uncertainty regarding RH reductions is too large to introduce
   probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions. Additionally,
   precipitation is possible over parts of the area today/tonight. 

   ...Day 3/Monday: Northwest New Mexico and vicinity...
   The 40% Critical fire weather area was reduced across this area to
   align where the best overlap of forecast lowered RH, breezy winds,
   and receptive fuels is expected. While elevated fire weather
   conditions may be possible behind the front across portions of
   eastern Colorado and western Kansas, uncertainty in RH reductions
   was too large to maintain the 40% probability of Critical conditions
   in this area.

   ..Elliott.. 09/18/2021

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