U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 121722
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...Eastern Montana...
Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of
a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will
support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of
eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as
15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an
elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area.
..Williams.. 07/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/
...Synopsis...
High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds
mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday.
Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs
approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms
will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too
localized to include areas with this outlook.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 121950
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Columbia Basin...
Westerly downslope winds and drying east of the Cascades will bring
elevated fire weather conditions to the Columbia Basin Sunday amid
dry fuels, with stronger sustained winds of up to 20 mph
concentrated through the Cascade gaps.
...Northern CA/Southern OR/central ID...
A subtle mid-level short wave trough along with strong daytime
heating but marginal instability over the higher terrain will
support a few showers and thunderstorms across northern California
into south-central OR Sunday afternoon. Farther northeast, another
weak mid-level short wave trough could bring few high-based
showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of central Idaho. Coverage
of thunderstorms will be quite sparse with weak forcing and limited
mid-level moisture, limiting threat of dry lightning ignitions
across central ID.
..Williams.. 07/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will move across the periphery of the western
ridge on Sunday. This will bring an increase in westerly winds
across the Cascades in central Washington and Oregon. Winds will
largely remain Elevated (at around 10-15 mph) but some locally
Critical conditions will be possible in the Cascade gaps. Fuels in
this region are critically dry, with ERCs exceeding the 90th
percentile for dryness.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 122159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
A mid-level trough descending southeastward from British Columbia
will bring increasing fire weather concerns to portions of the
Northwestern U.S. and Great Basin early next week. Accelerating
winds ahead a strong cold front, low daytime relative humidity and
dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across the
Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain on Day 3/Monday, with overall
fire weather threat shifting into the Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday.
The resulting back door cold front and north-northeast pressure
gradient could also bring a period of weak offshore flow to the
coastal ranges of OR Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday, but some lingering
model uncertainty in wind magnitude precludes introduction of
critical probabilities at this time. Farther east, wetting rains and
cooler temperatures associated with the trough and cold front should
mitigate fire weather concerns across much of Montana Day 4/Tuesday.
...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
A mid-level low near Baja California along with a general rebuilding
of the ridge across the Western U.S. could aid in ushering in deeper
monsoon moisture into portions of the Southwest and Great Basin for
the latter portion of the week. Considerable ensemble spread in
moisture plume evolution limits confidence in isolating dry
thunderstorm threat for now.
..Williams.. 07/12/2025
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