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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290550

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
   INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

   ...Synopsis...
   A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today
   with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten
   the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to
   windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern
   New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60
   knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this
   region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative
   humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist
   over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to
   dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat
   will exist across eastern New Mexico.

   ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290553

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
   WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES....

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a
   trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow
   will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High
   Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative
   humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday
   will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all
   fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New
   Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles.

   ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough
   forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow
   will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a
   surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are
   expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly
   warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong
   winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold
   front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this
   weekend and early next week.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into
   early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific
   trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful
   80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected
   over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level
   pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds
   across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry
   downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough
   should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The
   overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface
   conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather
   concerns, especially D5/Sun.

   Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper
   trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage
   and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to
   uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and
   lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX
   Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of
   next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front
   is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass.

   ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
      




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