U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...17z Update...
No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated
area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big
Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly
overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions
are possible given recent drying of fuels.
..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains
today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level
support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High
Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western
Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20
percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire
spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated
highlights.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281847
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...19z Update...
Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has
increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with
RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some
uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed
green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some
critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and
potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and
low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather
potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern
CO. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High
Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow
(Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of
the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH
and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak
heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels
will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread
"high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico
into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater
rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed
in future outlooks.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the
western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will
quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves
onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the
southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds.
Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to
critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early
next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and
wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the
end of the extended forecast period.
...Southern High Plains...
Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this
week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As
flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to
move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting
D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should
begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the
afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with
higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With
temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should
allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather
conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical
concerns are also possible but more uncertain.
Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of
shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify
ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should
still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming
temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH
minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible.
More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into
D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading
80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee
low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and
higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range,
widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across
parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into
D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward.
However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower
owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in
the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less
likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below
normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to
develop.
..Lyons.. 03/27/2024
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