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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221658
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...Colorado Front Range and Southeastern Wyoming...
Current surface observations show westerly wind gusts already in the
35 to 45 mph range along the CO Front Range and adjacent foothills,
northward into southeastern WY. Robust mid-level westerly flow along
with daytime mixing and downslope drying will lead to critical fire
weather conditions through the afternoon. West winds of 30-40 mph
with localized gusts of 55-65 mph, relative humidity in the 15-20%
range and dry fuels will promote a critical fire weather
environment, where Critical highlights were added.
...Eastern New Mexico, Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas...
A broader but lower in magnitude downslope wind event is expected
expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle through the
afternoon. Sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph with
relative humidity as low as 15% will align with increasingly dry
fuels to support elevated fire weather conditions across this
region. A more localized downslope wind threat exists farther south
along the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis ranges where Elevated
highlights have been extended. Winds approaching 20 mph just leeward
of these ranges will align with low RH and moderately dry fuels to
promote an elevated fire weather concern through the afternoon.
..Williams.. 12/22/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will continue to build over the CONUS through today,
with lee troughing poised to increase across the Plains states. Some
dry downslope flow is expected across portions of the southern High
Plains during the afternoon hours. From the immediate lee of the
Rockies across Colorado, to eastern New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle, multiple hours of overlapping 15-20 percent RH and 15+
mph sustained westerly surface winds are likely. Elevated highlights
have been maintained given dry fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 221946
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
An amplifying mid/upper level ridge over the central U.S. and a
deepening trough heading into the West Coast will maintain broad
southwest flow aloft over the western U.S. However, somewhat weaker
mid-level winds coupled with lower magnitude lee troughing in the
central High Plains will limit development of a broader downslope
wind event along the wind-prone areas of the CO Rockies. Localized
accelerations of winds are expected within favorable terrain gaps,
but widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear to remain
low. Additional upper-level cloud cover streaming ahead of the
trough across the western U.S. will also inhibit optimal boundary
layer mixing and stronger surface wind potential. Farther south,
very dry conditions and anomalously warm temperatures in the 70s and
lower 80s will prevail across much of the southern High Plains but
lighter winds should mitigate the overall fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/22/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern U.S. as a
mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday).
Surface lee troughing will continue across the central U.S., with
gradual moisture return from the Gulf expected. A dry low-level
airmass will continue to linger along the central and southern High
Plains. However, surface wind fields over the western portions of
the Plains will be weaker compared to Day 1, with no fire weather
highlights introduced for this outlook.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222147
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central U.S. should begin to deamplify
through the end of the week as an mid/upper trough gradually moves
into Intermountain West. Well above normal temperatures under the
ridge will likely be daily occurrences with minimal precipitation
expected, particularly across the southern Great Plains where
expanding rainfall deficits, dry fuels and dry and breezy conditions
could align to support an increased fire weather threat. A
descending upper-level trough into the Northeast along with a
deepening surface cyclone should drive a strong cold front through
the Great Plains and eastern U.S. over the weekend. Precipitation
should be limited to the TN Valley/Appalachians region where deeper
boundary layer moisture and stronger upper-level support exists. A
more diffuse surface pressure gradient and generally lighter wind
regime emerges as high pressure settles in east of the Continental
Divide early next week although initial dry post-frontal flow could
reinvigorate a fire weather threat across the southern Plains and TX
early next week.
...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Southern Plains...
Lee troughing across the Central Plains and persistent southwesterly
flow aloft will promote dry and breezy conditions across the OK/TX
Panhandle and northeastern NM on Day 3/Wednesday. Deeper return flow
moisture from the Gulf will limit fire weather concerns to the
southern High Plains Wednesday. A breakdown in the upper-level ridge
across the central U.S. along with increasing west-southwest flow
aloft will continue to support breezy conditions across the southern
High Plains Thursday. A plume of Pacific moisture and mid/upper
cloud cover associated with an impinging western U.S. trough should
arrive Day 4/Thursday across the Southern High Plains. Additional
cloud cover, increasing surface dewpoints and limited RH reductions
could limit the fire weather threat to an extent, but near record
warmth along with an increasingly dry fuelscape and breezy
west-southwest winds supports introduction of 40% critical
probabilities for Thursday for portions of the TX Panhandle and far
eastern NM. Increasing west/southwest flow aloft from a mid-level
jet and continued lee troughing should keep a dry downslope regime
across the southern Plains through Day 5/Friday. A better boundary
layer mixing environment with less cloud cover and persistently warm
temperatures should support low daytime RH across the Southern
Plains Friday. A 40% critical probability area was added to cover
this likely fire weather concern across far eastern NM and portions
of the TX Panhandle.
...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday...
Some forecast uncertainty remains in the timing and intensity of
pre/post-frontal winds across the central and southern Plains over
the weekend. This could present ongoing fire weather threats across
the south-central CONUS and even the Southeast where minimal
rainfall and above normal temperatures allow more receptive fuels to
develop through early next week. Critical probabilities were
withheld due to ongoing uncertainty and longer term ensemble
guidance.
..Williams.. 12/22/2025
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