U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 211526
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Recent 15 UTC surface observations show winds increasing to around
15 mph with occasionally stronger gusts and RH falling into the
30-40% range. This aligns well with recent guidance and supports the
ongoing forecast (outlined in the discussion below).
..Moore.. 11/21/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/
...Synopsis...
With a strong upper low over the lower Great Lakes region, strong
flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast into Florida. A
deepening low east of the DelMarVa will promote enhanced surface
wind behind the cold front. With minimal precipitation falling over
North Florida, where fuels are quite dry for this time of year, a
period of elevated fire weather is expected. Winds of 10-15 mph and
RH perhaps near 20% in some spots can be expected by the afternoon.
The boundary layer should also deepen sufficiently to support gusts
of up to 20 mph.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211830
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of central
FL. Latest guidance has trended towards slightly stronger winds
along the FL peninsula tomorrow as a secondary cold surge pushes
across the region. Gusts up to 15-20 mph will be possible -
especially during the late morning hours - with RH reductions into
the 25-35% range. Dry/windy conditions today across the area and
limited rainfall over the past three days should allow for adequate
drying of fine fuels to support a fire concern.
..Moore.. 11/21/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/
...Synopsis...
A similar upper-level pattern to Thursday will again be present on
Friday. The strong upper low will continue east and a complex
surface low evolution will occur off the Mid-Atlantic/New England
coast. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal for most
areas. Northern into central Florida will again be dry. Temperature
will be a bit cooler and RH will be a bit higher. Boundary layer
mixing will also be less than Thursday, tempering gust potential.
With the strongest winds/lowest RH expected over less receptive
fuels, highlights will be withheld. Locally elevated conditions can
be expected.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202057
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
Fire weather concerns remain limited through the extended period.
Medium and long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict a
synoptic regime unfavorable for widespread fire weather potential
through at least early next week. The upper trough currently over
the upper MS River valley is expected to gradually shift east over
the next few days and will support somewhat widespread precipitation
chances across the Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and Northeast. An
amplification of the upper trough across the inter-mountain West and
Plains through the weekend will promote dry, but relatively benign
conditions across the Southwest/Rockies. The development of a lee
cyclone along the northern High Plains on D4/Saturday may support a
dry return flow regime across the southern Plains, but recent
rainfall will likely limit fuel status. Ensemble cluster analyses
suggest a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week
with the potential for one or more upper waves migrating across the
Southwest/southern High Plains during the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday
time period. While no strong signals are noted in recent ensemble
and deterministic solutions, these waves could present opportunities
for fire weather concerns across parts of the western Plains where
little rainfall is expected through the middle of next week.
..Moore.. 11/20/2024
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